What will emerge from the Arab summit, asks Dina Ezzat The date and venue of the ordinary Arab summit have been agreed upon at last. In Sharm El-Sheikh, early Saturday afternoon, President Hosni Mubarak will receive the heads of Arab states as they arrive in Egypt, home of the headquarters of the Arab League. The summit will be chaired by Bahrain though the heavy US military presence on its territory prevented the Gulf state from hosting the annual meeting. Most Arab states are expected to attend the Saturday gathering. Some heads of states will be absent due to health reasons and others will absent themselves to demonstrate their disappointment with the advancement of the date of the summit. It was originally scheduled for the last week of March but was brought forward, in response to President Mubarak's calls and the efforts of the Arab League, due to the urgency of the Iraqi crisis. Iraq, which had requested a delay until after 14 March, the expected date of the UN Security Council meeting at the ministerial level, has already signalled to the Arab League its intention to attend though it remains as yet unclear who will represent the beleaguered nation. "It took many phone calls to convince the Iraqi government that the summit could not be delayed given aggressive US diplomatic moves and levels of military deployment," an Arab League source said. Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Algeria, all of which supported the Iraqi request, are also expected to attend the summit. Whatever the differences over date and venue, it is the outcome of this summit that matters. "We want no war. We cannot take another war. Everything will be very expensive and there will be even fewer jobs. The entire situation will be very bleak." The comments of a middle-aged Egyptian taxi driver are representative of feelings throughout the Arab world. "I do not care about Saddam Hussein," he added. "I hope he dies tomorrow morning and this whole problem will be solved. But I am worried about what is going to happen to us here in Egypt." A recent study by the Arab Labour Organisation warned that the war against Iraq will "have a huge human cost and will threaten the entire Arab order, creating a serious strategic imbalance in favour of Israel". The study indicates serious losses across the Arab world, with the tourism, aviation and transportation sectors most severely effected. "We will face one of the worst situations ever," Arab League Secretary- General Amr Moussa said on Tuesday. "The situation is alarming. We are working very hard but in view of overall weaknesses in the Arab order, the challenges are unprecedented." Underlying Arab dithering, most diplomats agree, are serious differences in how to deal with the Iraqi regime. According to one diplomatic source, "Nobody cares for Saddam Hussein. Everyone would be only too happy to see him go tomorrow. But then, some argue, this is not a good enough reason to enter into an alliance with the US that will end up with the occupation of Iraq. Others argue that there is no harm in facilitating an American attack against Iraq if, in return, Arab countries secure guarantees over the unity of Iraq, a limited timetable for any US military presence and an acceptable settlement to the Palestinian issue." The summit's final communiqué will have to accommodate the views of both sides. "This might be tough, because while the Syrians will insist that it is impossible for the summit to tell the Iraqi regime that preventing the war is its responsibility and nobody else's, the Kuwaitis will insist on adopting this line," predicted one informed source, adding that "while the Syrians and Lebanese will insist that the communiqué stipulate that all Arab countries refrain from facilitating any attack against Iraq, Gulf countries where US troops are deployed will not want to go along with that line." Similar splits could mire any resolutions proposed at the summit. Some states have been arguing that the time has come for Arab countries to face the fact that it is time for Saddam to relinquish power and spare his country, and the entire Arab nation, the consequences of the American-led war. These states believe that it is within the mandate of the Arab summit to dispatch a delegation to explore this matter with the Iraqi president and to discuss the sort of guarantees he would want to secure before complying. "The Saudis have been working on this issue already," commented one source. Other states believe the opposite, arguing that no matter how much they might disagree with Saddam, they should avoid setting any precedents for the forced abdication of an Arab leader.
