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The new face of Lebanon
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 23 - 06 - 2005

Lebanon has a new parliament, dominated by an opposition movement that successfully expelled Syria from the country and forced a sea of political change, reports Mohalhel Fakih from Beirut
Lebanon's most daunting tasks lie ahead. MPs representing a wide array of ethnic, sectarian and political factions have to wrestle with local and international pressures to carry out urgently needed political and economic reform and engage in dialogue with Hizbullah over its armament.
"We are following in the footsteps of my father. His political and economic programmes are to have a country that has a free legal system, and we need to have growth. And in order to have growth, we need to change laws in parliament, so there is a final programme that will be ready in a week and that will continue what my father started," MP Saad Rafik Al-Hariri told Al-Ahram Weekly at a news conference after his electoral ticket swept to victory in north Lebanon, the final phase of a four-week staggered election process and the first without Syria's direct involvement and military presence in three decades. Al-Hariri did not disclose whether he would seek the post of prime minister, reserved for Sunni Muslims.
An alliance led by Al-Hariri and his opposition coalition, which includes Druze leader MP Walid Jumblatt and Christian factions, including the Maronite Lebanese Forces of imprisoned former warlord Samir Geagea, won 72 seats in the 128-member legislative assembly. However, their rival, hard-line General Michel Aoun, who threatened to upset the opposition's success after scoring a stunning victory in Christian constituencies in Mount Lebanon, fielded 14 MPs and is allied with seven others, giving him considerable influence in the new parliament. The Shia Muslim factions of Hizbullah and Amal also have substantial clout. They clinched 35 seats on a joint platform of protecting Hizbullah's armed militia along Israel's border.
"This new parliament represents a new era in Lebanon. This is what the country looks like without Syrian presence. This is the real Lebanon, with all its problems, sects and vigour," veteran analyst Ahmed Ayash told Al-Ahram Weekly after election results were officially announced.
A European Union monitoring team gave an international vote of confidence to the election. "The elections were managed and took place in a generally peaceful manner," Jose Ignacio Salafranca, EU chief observer told reporters. But he echoed Lebanese calls for modifying the complicated process, saying, "there is an urgent need for a complete reform of the election framework."
The final round of legislative elections in the north on Sunday dealt the opposition a decisive victory over powerful pro-Syrian figures such as former minister and legislator Suleiman Franjieh, who was allied with Aoun. Aoun, the firebrand general, who had been a leading voice in the anti-Syrian opposition, unseated many of his former opposition colleagues when candidates on his ticket, among them important Syrian allies, made spectacular victories in Christian electoral districts.
"From this moment I am in the opposition," Aoun told a news conference after his coalition failed to win any seats in the north. He said he would lead a new opposition to the current parliamentary majority. Aoun contended that he represents "half of the Lebanese".
The former general was accused of splitting opposition ranks and threatening a resurrection of pro-Syrian figures by forging electoral alliances with staunch supporters of Damascus and backing Syria's top ally, President Emile Lahoud, against calls for his resignation.
"We cannot sit alongside those (people)... we have different values," Aoun said of the opposition. He vowed not to take part in the new government and accused them of rampant corruption, vote-buying and sectarian acrimony -- the same charges that the former general and his electoral coalition faced. Aoun has ruled out cooperation with Al-Hariri and Jumblatt for now.
Al-Hariri urged Aoun to engage in dialogue but Jumblatt was dismissive. "Aoun is a failure," the Druze leader said hours after polls closed Sunday.
"It was a victory for Islamic-Christian partnership and moderate Muslims and Christians," Jumblatt added. He had charged Aoun with extremism, drawing strong denials from the general.
Aoun promises to be a lively and active opposition chief in parliament, where he plans to press for an international audit into Lebanon's hefty $35.5 billion debt, hinting at embezzlement and fraudulent deals by current opposition members, who at one point were allied with Syria, which withdrew its troops from Lebanon in April after former Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri was killed.
Damascus pulled its military out following massive demonstrations in Beirut by a cross-section of the country's traditionally fractured political class and at least 17 religious sects. Damascus and the pro-Syrian Lebanese regime were blamed for the popular leader's murder, although they denied the charges. A UN Security Council investigation into the assassination was launched in Beirut last week by prominent German Prosecutor Detlev Mehlis. The probe is expected to pile more pressure on remaining pro-Syrian security chiefs and officials.
The investigation and its ramifications are just some of the challenges in store for the new parliament and government which will be appointed soon after MPs hold binding consultations with President Lahoud, himself a target of the current parliamentary majority. However, Lahoud, whose mandate was extended by a Syrian-forced constitutional amendment last September, triggering the UN Security Council's adoption of Resolution 1559, remains defiant.
"Elections demonstrated the desire of the Lebanese for change and their resolve to look for a new start," Lahoud said. Al-Hariri and his allies blame Lahoud for the tense political atmosphere that led to the former prime minister's murder in a car bombing on 14 February, and say the head of state, with Syrian backing, had torpedoed an internationally-supported reform programme launched by the late Al-Hariri.
"I think we will wait for the opinion of Bkirki (seat of the Maronite Church). We will have discussions with our allies. This is an issue that is quite sensitive in Lebanon... we believe in change in Lebanon and we need to move forward," Al-Hariri said, in response to queries on whether he will press for pro-Syrian Lahoud's resignation. The Maronite Church, a strident critic of Syria's past role here, resisted calls for the president's removal, on grounds it would tarnish the top post, reserved for Maronites, in Lebanon's strict confessional system of politics.
Before tackling Lahoud's fate, the new assembly will have to vote for a speaker, reserved for Shia Muslims. In the past 13 years, pro-Syrian politician Nabih Berri held the post. His Amal movement, allied with Hizbullah and Jumblatt, have said they will nominate him for a new term. But Christian MPs, especially Aoun, are expected to put up a fierce fight against his nomination.
Resolution 1559, which called for the withdrawal of Syrian troops and for disarming Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias, in a clear reference to Hizbullah and Palestinian militants in camps here, is at the top of Washington's agenda. There is consensus that all factions need to engage in a national dialogue with Hizbullah over its arms.
"Elections in the south were a referendum about the resistance... and a response to all the foreign intervention," Hizbullah's number two, Sheikh Naim Kassem maintained. Hizbullah and its Shia ally Amal, once a rival, swept the polls in the south in a unified ticket.
Hizbullah remains popular in districts close to Israel. The group, listed as a terrorist organisation by the United States, helped oust Israel from the south in 2000. Israel's continued occupation of the disputed Shebaa Farms border region and its frequent breaches of Lebanese airspace, Hizbullah argues, justifies its continued armament. But some Lebanese, especially the Christians, want Hizbullah disarmed and see it as a necessary move to heal Lebanon from the 1975-1990 civil war.


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