Lebanon's antiquated confessional political system could well prove an obstacle to reform, reports Mohalhel Fakih from Beirut Former prime minister Omar Karami, who until his resignation in February presided over a Lebanese cabinet hand-picked by Damascus, has announced he will boycott legislative polls, blaming his decision partly on the demarcation of electoral boundaries that in 2000 had guaranteed him a seat in parliament. There has been no let up in international pressure on Beirut to hold elections on schedule. The elections will begin on 29 May and last for four consecutive Sundays. "The new parliament will, in effect, be little more than an appointed legislature. It will be a parliament determined by [United Nations Security Council Resolution] 1559 and it will make mistakes," Karami claimed in a television interview. "We are not the agents of Syria, we are nationalists," Karami, who was forced to resign in the face of the massive street protests that followed the assassination of Rafiq Al-Hariri, told New TV in Beirut. Commenting on Karami's announcement not to contest his seat in Tripoli, Lebanon's President Emile Lahoud, one of Damascus's most faithful allies, said the decision "was a result of the negative consequences... of holding elections under the 2000 law". Though five years ago Lahoud had been one of the law's most vociferous proponents he now maintains the division of Lebanon into large constituencies is dangerous because of the imbalance it creates among Christians and Muslims. The last time Lahoud made a similar statement he drew accusations that he was stoking sectarian tensions in a country where 17 different religious sects each have a political quota enshrined in a constitution that divides power in half between Christians and Muslims. Hours later his son, MP Emile Emile Lahoud, said he too would not run in the elections, blaming the 2000 law which resulted in "a victorious faction over another". The opposition has set its sights on Lahoud. MP Walid Junblatt, and Saad Al-Hariri, political heir of the murdered former premier, have made clear their determination to see Lahoud dismissed. The Maronite Church, however, opposes such a move. "The Americans appear to want to please Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir by keeping Lahoud in power. This will actually help the Patriarch since it will avoid opening a Pandora's box. There are so many Maronite figures who want to become president," said one well- informed diplomatic source in Beirut. "Should the president resign or not?" Saad Al-Hariri was reported by Reuters as asking. "This should be discussed after the new parliament is elected." MP Walid Eido, a candidate on Al-Hariri's list, nine members of which have already won seats in the new parliament following the withdrawal of opponents, was more forthcoming. "When elections are over," he said, "the tenant of the Baabda Palace will have only one option and that is to quit." Such a move would require agreement between opposition factions and the Patriarch, who has already come under pressure to change his position from disparate Christian groups and the long list of Maronite politicians who themselves covet the presidency, an office monopolised by Maronites under the current political dispensation. "The president is a symbol of Syria's control over Lebanon and his departure would symbolise that Syrian custodianship is coming to an end," said Ahmed Ayash, a veteran political analyst . Not that that would automatically open the doors of the presidential palace to the anti- Syrian General Michel Aoun, who recently returned from exile in France. Aoun, argues Ayash, will face an up-hill battle if he pursues his presidential ambitions with Al-Hariri's Future bloc, and Junblatt's Progressive Socialist Party, expected to form the largest political alliance in the new parliament which will elect the head of state, both opposing Aoun. Aoun, who has never enjoyed close ties with Patriarch Sfeir, has already antagonised many Muslim and Christian opposition factions, including the Christian Qornet Shehan front, backed by the Maronite Church. "Lebanon needs contemporary politicians to strengthen Christian-Muslim co-existence," said one diplomat monitoring developments in Lebanon. The source, who requested anonymity, cautiously welcomed the changes initiated by last month's Syrian withdrawal. "But how much of a real change is taking place on the domestic political scene remains to be seen. The confessional political structure remains the same although change has started at the highest level. We are seeing the beginning of real change, but Lebanon needs to undertake a domestic reform process with regional and international support," he said. Lebanese elections, observed by international monitors, will be held under an elections law opposed from both Christian and Muslim quarters. Christian parties believe the large constituencies imposed in 2000 dilute their support while growing numbers of Muslims question the fairness of a law that grants them half of parliamentary seats when they comprise two-thirds of Lebanon's population. "Syria's heavy intelligence presence put confessional bickering on the back burner but now it has resurfaced. We have returned to earlier patterns of behaviour. The Lebanese have for centuries lived with confessional sensitivities, but the confessions have co- existed except when they have manipulated by outside powers," Ayash maintained. "Lebanon is a home with many houses, all of them Lebanese." While jockeying for position ahead of the legislative elections led to the ratcheting up of sectarian rhetoric opposition factions, which for the first time represent all sects, have recently closed ranks, joining together to accuse the remnants of Syria's intelligence network of attempting to sow confessional discord in an attempt to derail the polls. Saad Al-Hariri, who expects the opposition to win up to 90 seats in the 128- member legislature, has been accused by Aoun of conspiring against him with Hizbullah, Speaker Nabih Berri's Amal movement and with some Qornet Shehwan figures. And on Tuesday he confirmed the collapse of electoral coalition ties with his newest rivals, Junblatt and Al-Hariri. "Hizbullah and Amal are the only Syrian allies who remain in the political arena. They remain because they represent the Shias and are more than just political groupings," argues Ayash. Both groups have been careful not to distance themselves from the Syrian political order, making deals and alliances with opposition groups. They are almost certain to end up with strong parliamentary blocs. "Hizbullah has its own clout. True, it used Syria's help but remains one of the most important, if not the major, political force in Lebanon. Along with Amal, Hizbullah has recently been able to draw in Junblatt. But how long they will be able to resist international pressure to disarm is not clear," the diplomatic source told Al-Ahram Weekly. Meanwhile there was a fresh outburst of low-level fighting near the Shebaa Farms along the Lebanese, Syrian and Israeli border, with Hizbullah and Israel exchanging accusations over who triggered the outbreak. There are mounting reports that, in an attempt to corner Hizbullah to disarm and force a final demarcation of the Lebanese- Syrian border Israel is considering withdrawing from the hill. Syria backs Beirut's claims over the region but has rejected UN pressure to officially draw a border. The United Nations ruled in 2000 that Israel's pullout from Lebanon was complete and that the Shebaa Farms are Syrian territory occupied by Israel. Hizbullah insists the farms are Lebanese.
