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End of an era
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 28 - 04 - 2005

It is now up to the Lebanese to rebuild their polity, writes Mohalhel Fakih from Beirut
Syria's reign in Lebanon is coming to a close. Its intelligence headquarters in the Bekaa Valley town of Anjar -- a symbol of Syria's grip on the country -- has finally been handed over to the Lebanese Army and the once-feared Syrian Intelligence Chief Rostom Ghazaleh is back in Damascus. The Lebanese now face the task of building a nation.
"Lebanon is facing dangerous challenges. Starting tonight we entered a new phase following the withdrawal of Syrian troops... The Lebanese will now have to depend on themselves to manage their country," Hizbullah Secretary-General Sayid Hassan Nasrallah said on Monday.
Syria ended its 29-year military and intelligence presence in compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which demands the departure of all foreign forces from Lebanon and the disarmament of militias -- including the heavily armed Hizbullah as well as Palestinian militants in 12 refugee camps.
"The only solution is for the Lebanese to say that the resistance is not a militia, which would place it outside the realm of discussion," the head of the Shia party, which helped end Israel's presence in South Lebanon in 2000, told a large crowd in southern Beirut. He praised Saadeddin Al-Hariri, son and political heir of assassinated former prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri, for declaring Hizbullah a "Lebanese resistance force and not a militia". Opposition leader MP Walid Jumblatt has also said the group must be protected.
Political analyst Hazem Al-Amin, however, believes "Hizbullah will come to view its possession of arms differently in the coming period".
"Parliament," he said, "which is now supportive will itself change because of the Syrian withdrawal."
Pressure has been growing on Hizbullah to disarm though the group, backed by Syria and Iran, has vowed not to lay down its weapons until the conflict with Israel is resolved. The opposition is now united in calling for discussion of the possible disarming of Hizbullah, and has been emboldened by its success in toppling the government of pro-Syrian premier Omar Karami in the aftermath of Al-Hariri's murder on 14 February. Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese then took to the streets, demanding independence and an investigation into the popular leader's assassination which many blame on Syria despite repeated denials from Damascus. Al-Hariri had become increasingly critical of Syria's role in Lebanon before his murder.
The outburst of popular anger that followed his killing represented an unprecedented display of unity in this country of 17 different religious sects that between 1975 and 1990 fought a bloody civil-war.
"Political disagreement will continue but a military conflict is almost impossible given the crises the Lebanese have survived in the past two months. That they did survive suggests that civil war is no longer on the cards. Nor are regional powers pushing in that direction. Many tried to create instability and sow fear but they were defeated. They were confronted by the Lebanese," says Al-Amin.
Legislative elections, due at the end of next month, are expected to cement the political sea-change since Al-Hariri's murder. The new prime minister, Najib Mikati, pledged that the elections, which the opposition is poised to win, will be held on time. The opposition, representing all Lebanese sects for the first time, and supporters of Syria, whose power has been ebbing, ended a two-month stand-off when they agreed on Mikati succeeding the pro-Syrian Karami.
"The elections will bring changes. There will be a return of Christian political forces. Forces that have been absent from the political arena will re-appear," believes Al-Amin. Syria had consistently marginalised conservative Christian parties. Lebanese Forces (LF) Party Chief Samir Geagea is behind bars and General Michel Aoun, a former army commander, in exile in Paris.
"The 'doctor' will soon be released from jail," Sithrida Geagea, wife of the LF commander, told hundreds of activists in Beirut. She was optimistic about a petition circulating in parliament demanding a new amnesty law that will ensure Geagea's freedom.
"The Lebanese people are today witnessing the beginning of an era of freedom and the collapse of the security regime that has ruled political life for years under the control of Damascus... The real test of national reconciliation will be the release of Samir Geagea and the return of General Michel Aoun," the former warlord's wife said. Though he is serving multiple life sentences for wartime assassinations the anti-Syrian Geagea, commonly known as the doctor, continues to lead the Lebanese Forces Party.
General Michel Aoun, another staunch opponent of Damascus, promised his supporters that he would return to Beirut on 7 May. Aoun headed a military government towards the end of the civil war before Syrian troops ousted him and he went into exile in France.
Though Al-Amin believes that "Syria's role will not end in Lebanon" Damascus's supporters in the country have been falling like a house of cards. Jamil Al-Sayid, who as head of General Security was the most powerful pro-Syrian security chief, tendered his resignation as the new government began moves to dismiss him, alongside other senior intelligence figures whom they hold at least indirectly responsible for Al-Hariri's assassination. Al-Sayid and Ali Al-Haj, head of Internal Security Forces, said last week they would step aside. The new government had announced its plans to replace them before Al-Sayid's resignation.
"Appointments of security chiefs are usually political... political developments, even before parliamentary elections, have led to major political changes," Al-Sayid said in his letter of resignation.
Hours later pro-Syrian MP Bassem Yammout announced at a news conference that he would not be contesting the upcoming parliamentary elections. Damascus does, however, continue to enjoy the support of Hizbullah and President Emile Lahoud, the extension of whose mandate for three more years last September triggered Resolution 1559.
On Monday Lahoud decorated Syrian security and military chiefs, including Intelligence Chief Rostom Ghazaleh, for "helping to re- unite Lebanon and prevent its division". Yet Damascus may not be able to count for long on Lahoud. Opposition figures are already talking about the possible impeachment of the president following the elections.
Syria faces a new reality in Lebanon. Is it ready to accommodate the fact?
"The Lebanese people have spoken... and I believe Syria has heard and is acting upon that," Saadeddin Al-Hariri told CNN in Beirut after declaring his candidacy in the May polls.
"A lot has been achieved but there is much more ahead... elections are coming up. The opposition proved its commitment to democratic practice in the way it has managed its differences without conflict. Now people want a clear political programme," said opposition MP Ahmed Fatfat.


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