Although electoral alliances guarantee the victory of the opposition, cracks emerged in the anti-Syrian camp, writes Mohalhel Fakih It is Lebanon's first legislative elections in 30 years without Syria's military presence. Alliances are concocted in a way to ensure the rise of the opposition but splits within the anti-Syrian camp are becoming obvious. General Michel Aoun, who just returned from his Syrian-forced exile in France, is even considering an electoral coalition with leading pro-Syrian figures. "The electoral lists by Saadeddin [Al-Hariri] and [Walid] Junblatt were made to reduce sectarian tensions that the intelligence services created through certain media outlets. Saadeddin took difficult decisions," Nabil De Freij, a Christian MP from Beirut told Al-Ahram Weekly. Internationally monitored elections will start 29 May and last until 19 June. The UN, the US, France and Saudi Arabia have led an international drive to hold the ballots on schedule to avoid a political vacuum following Syria's pullout. Saadeddin Al-Hariri, son of slain former prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri, on Sunday night announced an electoral alliance of 19 candidates, including himself, to run for Beirut's three voting districts. But he had to replace his late father's long-time ally, Ghattas Khoury, with Solange Gemayel, widow of Bashir, the president who was assassinated soon after he took office in 1982. Bashir Gemayel led the right-wing Phalange Party. Al-Hariri, whose coalition is expected to sweep elections in mainly Sunni Beirut, selected Solange for the only Maronite seat in the capital to appease Patriarch Cardinal Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir. He had warned of "detrimental consequences" that will follow elections if a law that governed the 2000 elections took effect. Sfeir and the Christian opposition favoured small constituencies, indirectly accusing the Muslim heavyweights Al-Hariri, Junblatt, Hizbullah and Speaker Nabih Berri's Amal Movement of forging a deal with the help of some Christians to maintain large voting districts in line with the 2000 law, after constitutional deadlines expired before a new law was drafted. President Emile Lahoud stands accused of "procrastinating" in forming a new government to draft a new electoral law after pro-Syrian Omar Karami's government was toppled by massive demonstrations. "Some want to prove that the Lebanese are not capable of ruling themselves. The only way to refute this is through conciliation; so one faction should not be victorious over another. However, the electoral law which was imposed on us will result in a feeling of inequality," Sfeir said in what was perceived to be a toned down Sunday mass. He earlier drew strong criticism for accusing Muslims of seeking to control Christian voters. He said Christians could freely vote for 15 MPs only, although the post-civil war Taif Agreement stipulated Christians and Muslims each elect 64 representatives in parliament. Speaker Nabih Berri categorically rejected Sfeir's demand that constituencies be carved into the smallest districts -- the qadaa -- on grounds such a measure would violate the Taif peace accord, which stipulated larger mohafazat constituencies. "Nineteen sectarian statelets would be created," Berri claimed. A well-informed Christian political source that requested anonymity said the patriarch, who always supported the qadaa, escalated his rhetoric to maintain authority of Maronite politicians and avoid conflict with General Aoun, who returned following Syria's withdrawal. "It would be catastrophic if the authority moved to Rabyeh [Aoun's residence]. All of us, including the patriarch, had experienced that before," the source told the Weekly. Aoun had fought a devastating battle against his Christian adversary, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, for control of Christian regions towards the end of the civil war. Aoun was also a strong critic of Sfeir, who supported Geagea, now in his 11th year in prison for wartime assassinations. His alleged murder of ex-prime minister Rashid Karami in 1987 has been keeping him behind bars, because Omar Karami, the former premier and brother of Rashid, is refusing to drop charges against him. Aoun's return mobilised the Christians after feeling marginalised during Syria's post-war order that ruled over 19 different sects, each with its own constitutional political quota. Calls by a number of hard-line Maronites to reform the post-Taif constitution rattled some Muslims. It divides power in half between Christians and Muslims, although Christians make up only one- third of Lebanon's population. "The goal of this campaign is to fabricate frustration among the Lebanese Christians at a time when most of their demands, and the demands of the Lebanese in general, have been achieved, including the withdrawal of the Syrian army and recovering political life from the grip of the military and security regime," MP Ghattas Khoury, who bowed out of the electoral race, said. Maronite MP Nayla Mouawad, an opposition figure, told a rally of the Lebanese Forces Party, it was "the military regime's last attempt to turn against" national unity, which prevailed following popular prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri's murder. She accused intelligence services loyal to President Lahoud and Damascus of spreading "fear" among the Christians. She cited a startling meeting last week in Damascus between Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and former general security chief Jameel Sayid, who was dismissed amid allegations that he was linked to Al- Hariri's killing. The wife of assassinated president Renee Mouawad, who accuses Syria of killing her husband when the civil war ended, told supporters the results of the Damascus meeting was that "Christians [allied to Syria] remembered they were Christians" as campaigns of incitement were launched with the objective of "derailing legislative elections, stability and Muslim- Christian partnership". President Lahoud and Sleiman Franjieh, a former minister and top ally of Syria, have been leading a drive against the 2000 law that will in effect govern elections, arguing it favoured Muslim voters and candidates. "We want the Muslims to be on our side, and vice versa, but what is happening today is that the blood of the martyred prime minister [Al-Hariri] is being exploited to settle electoral scores. The blood of the martyred prime minister should unify the country and not allow one group to triumph over another," Franjieh told supporters. The former minister surprised the country's political establishment when he took to the airwaves accusing Muslim factions and some Maronite opposition figures of forging a deal to control parliament by passing the 2000 election law. Franjieh stands to lose from large voting districts. "Some are trying to disrupt elections by rejecting the law and calling for drafting a new one. They had procrastinated because they did not want to hold elections and sought to extend the mandate of the current parliament to keep some officials in their posts," Saadeddin Al- Hariri, political heir of the late premier, said. He told thousands of supporters that the 2000 law had been tailor-made by security services and Al- Hariri's foes to defeat him in elections, but the former prime minister had scored a resounding victory that put him on a collision course with Lahoud. The parliamentary blocs of Al-Hariri and his Progressive Socialist Party leader ally, Druze MP Walid Junblatt, will have a leading voice in a new parliament. Junblatt announced his coalition on Sunday with Geagea's Lebanese Forces in the Chouf region. He is already locked in a public dispute with General Aoun, who accused him -- along with Al-Hariri's Future Movement, Speaker Berri's Amal Movement and Hizbullah -- of secretly striking a deal to maintain the 2000 law to "ensure their control over parliament". The victory of about 50 MPs belonging to the four blocs, and a coalition between Hizbullah and Amal in South Lebanon, in addition to the alliance between the Lebanese Forces, Junblatt, and some Maronite opposition figures, is almost certain. An accord grouping 23 other MPs in the Bekaa Valley is likely to follow suit, guaranteeing the emerging coalition of a majority that will form a new government and possibly call for early presidential elections. However, this will deal a blow to Aoun's presidential aspirations and to the political and economic reform programme he has promised to launch. Parliamentarians by law choose the head of state. "The opposition does not exist anymore. We were betrayed," Aoun, who faces tough electoral contests, said. He did not rule out an alliance with pro-Syrian factions, including Franjieh. Junblatt and other opposition figures have been suspicious of Aoun's terms of return, hinting at a possible agreement between Lahoud, Aoun and Syria. "Michel Aoun is with Lahoud. He does not want him to resign. If it is up to us, we won't say no if Lahoud resigns today," MP De Freij told the Weekly. The next parliament will have to grapple with the president's fate. The extension of his mandate had been very unpopular. Junblatt maintains that Lahoud sits at the helm of a "military and security regime", that is loyal to Syria. "We need to dismantle the military regime," De Freij also insisted. As politicians jockeyed for parliamentary seats, Lebanon's border with Israel flared up in the most serious bout of violence in four months. Israel reported explosions near the occupied Shebaa Farms Friday. In retaliation, Israeli forces raided positions across the border, reporting that it destroyed four positions belonging to Hizbullah. Lebanon said the fighting erupted when Israel opened fire on Kfar Shouba village, damaging a house. But Israel denied the shooting occurred. Serious warfare along the volatile frontier could raise the pressure on Hizbullah -- now preparing to bolster its presence in parliament -- to disarm, in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which called for the withdrawal of Syria's military and intelligence agents.
