The disarmament of Hizbullah seems off the agenda, at least for now, as Lebanon struggles in political turmoil, writes Mohalhel Fakih Lebanon's most serious political turmoil since the end of the civil war in 1990, along with a wave of car bombings that have spread fear among the population, threatens to delay long- awaited legislative elections that the opposition is poised to win. The opposition accused pro-Syrian authorities of seeking to derail the key polls and have blamed Damascus for a series of devastating bombings in Christian neighbourhoods in Beirut. The standoff coincided with a UN report that piled more pressure on pro-Syrian security chiefs and Damascus in the wake of the assassination of popular leader Rafiq Al-Hariri. "[The bombings] fall within the context of organised terrorist activity to change the political situation and pressure the Lebanese, by horrifying them, to curb their calls for independence, sovereignty and free will," opposition MP Boutros Harb said following the third bombing to rock Beirut's Christian heartland in eight days on Saturday night injuring six, mainly Asian workers. An explosion had killed three people north of Beirut on Tuesday, and 11 others had been wounded in an earlier blast. Opposition activists and MPs again accused Syria of seeking to destabilise the country; to sow "sedition" in order to justify a continued presence of its military despite unprecedented Lebanese and international pressure. Meanwhile, the army continued to withdraw from eastern Lebanon, having completed a pullout from the rest of the country. "This only bolsters confidence in the conclusions of the international fact-finding team," Harb told reporters after Saturday night's bombing. The blast destroyed at least 70 businesses in the Sad Bawshrieh industrial district. The UN fact-finding team probed the murder of former prime minister Al-Hariri and 18 others in a massive bomb attack against his convoy in Beirut on 14 February. Led by Irish deputy police commissioner Peter Fitzgerald, the team stopped short of blaming Damascus for the assassination. It called for a full international investigation, but warned that a transparent inquiry could not be carried out with the current security chiefs in power. "The government of Syria bears primary responsibility for the political tension that preceded the assassination of former prime minister Al-Hariri... The government of Syria clearly exerted influence that goes beyond the reasonable exercise of cooperation or neighbourly relations," the report said. It quoted accounts of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad threatening Al- Hariri with "physical harm" for initially refusing to support a Syrian-inspired constitutional amendment to keep the late premier's rival, President Emile Lahoud, in office last September. In an interview with the Spanish El Mundo newspaper, Al- Assad strongly criticised the UN findings, saying the report "was political and based more on opinions than evidence". He told the daily that Syrian troops "were never in charge of Lebanon's security", and were only in the country "to allow the Lebanese to live in peace and to help armed forces and the Lebanese army cement security". Lebanese government representatives also rejected the report's findings, especially ministers linked to the military and security establishment, which were accused of tampering with evidence. But President Lahoud, who the opposition holds directly responsible for the country's pervasive intelligence and security apparatus, pledged full cooperation with an international probe. Foreign Minister Mahmoud Hammoud said the report was "unjust" and "overstepped its bounds". "This committee does not have the right to reach such results and come up with proposals," Hammoud told reporters. He was flanked by Justice Minister Adnan Addoum who denied tampering with evidence in Al-Hariri's case. The UN document cited "flaws" in the Lebanese probe. "Clearly Al-Hariri's assassination took place [against] the backdrop of his power struggle with Syria, regardless of who carried out the assassination and with what aim," the UN team concluded. It recounted that "there was a formidable power bloc emerging in Lebanon bringing together, for the first time, representatives of almost all political and religious communities," against Syria's troops presence. "At the centre of this power bloc one man stood as the perceived threat: the former prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri," the team said. It was careful, however, to stress that it would not "jump" to conclusions and that a proper investigation must be conducted. The Sunni Muslim former premier was increasingly seen as the leader of the burgeoning non-sectarian opposition front, which was emboldened by UN Security Council Resolution 1559 demanding Syria leave Lebanon and Hizbullah be disarmed. Hizbullah has been a strong critic of Resolution 1559, and accuses the opposition of coordinating closely with the United States and France to oust Syria and advance Western interests in Lebanon and the region. But Hizbullah was cautious not to sever dialogue with the opposition, which is expected to play a leading role in the formation of a new government and possibly the election of a new president, after legislative polls in May. The Muslim Shia group ruled out giving up its arms and is pressing the opposition to join a "national unity" government, which the opposition dismissed. In what could spell an end to surging political tensions, Hizbullah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah met top opposition figure Walid Jumblatt for the first time since Al-Hariri's murder. The Druze leader said Hizbullah's arms are off the agenda for now and voiced support for starting a "new page" with Syria. He also rejected any US interference in Lebanese affairs. Their meeting followed a conclave between Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir, the spiritual leader of the Maronite Christian opposition, and President Lahoud, himself a Maronite. After the conclave, Lahoud pledged to crack down on the wave of car bombings. "Jumblatt's meeting with Nasrallah marked a turning point. So did Lahoud's meeting with Sfeir. Hizbullah is now looking after itself and Lahoud is paying attention to his situation. He voiced willingness to remove the cover from the security apparatus and cooperate with an international probe into Al- Hariri's killing," veteran political analyst Ahmed Ayash told Al- Ahram Weekly. He said Resolution 1559 meant to signal a final end to Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war, but it "turned huge and tragic with Al-Hariri's assassination". He said if the popular leader had not been murdered the "transition would have been smooth". "Security and intelligence heavyweights are now fighting to defend their positions. Starting with the killing of Al-Hariri to the latest bombings, they have not shown willingness to accept this transition," Ayash said. But he also cited national unity as a significant variable. "The Lebanese are today united for the first time. Hizbullah supporters too raised the Lebanese flag and sang the national anthem," the prominent observer told the Weekly. He was upbeat despite the violent setbacks, saying Lebanon has "functioning institutions, although badly run, and the country is in the middle of a major development drive". Ayash did not expect the bombing campaign to derail civil peace. "People today are responding to the violence by pinpointing the blame. They say 'we know who you are, stop it,'" the analyst said. Authorities and several factions, especially the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hizbullah, had been pressing the opposition to join a "national unity government," but have been unsuccessful. They accuse the opposition of prolonging the crisis to ride on a wave of inflamed passions following Al-Hariri's assassination. "What kind of national unity government will it be if [General Michel] Aoun is still in exile, [Samir] Geagea remains imprisoned and Al-Hariri has been murdered?" MP Bassem Sabeh responded. The opposition is seeking the return from Paris of exiled former army commander General Michel Aoun, the leading anti- Syrian figure, and wants the release of Samir Geagea, a jailed Christian opposition chief. The opposition pledged not to participate in any government until the truth behind Al-Hariri's murder is revealed and its perpetrators punished. The opposition now wants the largely pro-Syrian parliament to create a new government immediately to draft a new electoral law, accusing authorities of seeking to derail the elections, which they are certain to win. Although it lost its appeal among large segments of Lebanese, Hizbullah, which led the armed campaign that ousted Israel from Southern Lebanon in 2000, remains popular among the Muslim Shia population, and is expected to win more seats in parliament. It already has 12 MPs in the 128-member parliament that is divided in half between Christians and Muslims. As for the US and France, who led international calls for the implementation of Resolution 1559, they appear to be focussing only on the pullout of Syrian troops and the restoration of Lebanese sovereignty for now, setting aside Hizbullah's disarmament. "We are simply stating the interest, the concern, the requirement of the international community that Lebanon and the Lebanese be allowed to move forward peacefully, to have a government that reflects their will through elections with international observers, that freely allows them to make their own political choices with no external intervention," US Assistant Secretary of State David Satterfield told reporters in Beirut. Sister of the slain former premier, MP Bahia Al-Hariri, made it clear that Lebanon "is now able to lead itself and will not replace one [foreign] tutelage with another". "Lebanon is in the difficult stage towards sovereignty, freedom and independence," Bahia Al-Hariri said.
