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Lebanon in turmoil
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 21 - 10 - 2004

Lebanon is facing its most serious internal crisis since a bloody civil war ended more than a decade ago, writes Mohalhel Fakih from Beirut
The United States and France have finally decided to force a Syrian withdrawal in Lebanon nearly two decades after Damascus first intervened in the country. They want Hizbollah disarmed. And Washington is now threatening to freeze the assets of senior Lebanese and Syrian officials.
If successful, a new draft resolution at the United Nations will again declare Beirut and Damascus in breach of the Security Council.
The US and France introduced the text after failing to garner unanimity in support of a Council presidential statement that demands quarterly reports on compliance with last month's Resolution 1559. That decision called for the pullout of "foreign" forces from Lebanon and demanded the disarmament of "militias" in Lebanon. It had failed to preempt a constitutional amendment that extended President Emile Lahoud's term in office for another three years -- a move that France and the US blamed on Syria.
"This is a divided Council," Syrian Ambassador to the UN Fayssal Mekdad told reporters in New York. He lashed out at the new draft resolution, calling it "abuse of the Council". Syria, and consequently Lebanon, both risk charges of violating international law in the quarterly reports that the draft resolution asks UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to compile.
Approval of the text, or even the presidential statement, would follow ominous war games that Israel carried out last week simulating attacks against Syrian and Palestinian targets at the Shifazon military base in southern Israel. It also follows the deployment of a gigantic US military force last year in Iraq.
"Lebanon is the least priority for the US. But Syria is at the top of its priorities," former prime minister Selim Hoss said. He warned the Lebanese opposition, which has welcomed Resolution 1559 and is pressing Damascus to "rectify" its ties with Beirut, that they are "wrong" if they think "the Americans will come to Beirut to root out Lahoud from power." The opposition here for the first time since 1990 includes Lebanese of all religious sects. They have been coordinating efforts to press for a Syrian withdrawal and accuse Damascus of interfering in Lebanese affairs, especially when the constitution was amended to keep the pro-Syrian president in power.
In New York, US Ambassador to the UN John Danforth was adamant his country's initiative was a matter of principle. Briefing Arab reporters on the latest draft resolution which will effectively put Lebanese-Syrian ties under international monitoring and calls for the full implementation of Resolution 1559, the US envoy described Syria's presence as "occupation".
He argued that the Syrian military presence, estimated at between 14,000 to 17,000 soldiers, not counting the substantial number of plain clothed intelligence personnel, was no longer needed. He welcomed Syrian cooperation over securing its border with Iraq, but made clear that Lebanon was a different issue, despite reports that Damascus had agreed to assist the US in securing the porous border with Iraq in return for continued influence in Lebanon.
In pushing for the disarmament of Hizbollah and Palestinian militias in the Lebanon's 12 refugee camps, other clauses of Resolution 1559, the US could use a plethora of methods to force compliance. Beirut downplayed press leaks about an alleged American plan to block the extension of the mandate of UN peacekeepers, when it comes up for Security Council approval, along the capricious border with Lebanon. Such a move could prove costly, because the government would then have to deploy Lebanese army troops along the UN-demarcated Blue Line border, a decision it had previously rejected, or risk a confrontation with Israel for allowing Hizbollah to control the frontier unopposed. The Muslim Shia group led the armed campaign that ousted Israel from the region.
Beirut did, however, react to a proposal by Republican and Democratic Congress members in Washington who asked President George W Bush to tighten existing sanctions against Damascus under the Syria Accountability Act.
Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Al- Hariri summoned Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman and expressed concerns over a proposal to freeze the assets of senior officials in Lebanon and Syria as a way to pressure Damascus. It's not "yet" a law, Feltman told reporters. But he added, it reflected "very strong concern" in Congress about support for the "sovereignty and independence of Lebanon". If implemented, the proposal could block billions of dollars in US investments by senior Lebanese officials and parliamentarians.
"The Lebanese people are capable of taking their own decisions, away from any instructions or threats from abroad, especially when violence has targeted Lebanese officials," Deputy Assistant Secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs David Satterfield told Lebanon's LBC television station. He was apparently referring to the recent failed assassination attempt on former minister Marwan Hamadeh who, along with two other ministers representing the parliamentary bloc of opposition figure Deputy Walid Jumblatt, resigned from the government to protest the extension of Lahoud's mandate.
"No solution to the [problem] of Palestinian refugees will be imposed on Lebanon," Satterfield said in response to warnings by pro-Syrian officials here that the goal of Resolution 1559 was to resettle Palestinian refugees, which is totally rejected by Lebanese of all political convictions. He also denied as "rumours" reports that the US and Syria brokered a deal to cooperate on Iraq in return for ignoring Syria's role in Lebanon.
International scrutiny, following the extension of Lahoud's mandate, ultimately resulted in the worst turmoil this country has witnessed since 1990. Lahoud and his long-time rival Hariri have so far met four times but failed to agree on the formation of a new government. Hariri, who had originally vowed never to support a constitutional amendment to keep Lahoud but later voted in favour of it, reportedly due to Syrian pressure, is planning to resign. Hariri, however, is widely expected to return as head of a new government despite deep disagreements with the president.
Some in Beirut now think House Speaker Nabih Berri could actually vote a government resignation in a parliamentary no-confidence motion. The move could rebuff US, French and UN criticism of Syria, by showing that Lebanon's constitutional institutions were active. Lebanese officials could publicly call on Syria to intervene to end the deadlock. But the Lebanese daily Al-Nahar quoting sources said Damascus would then spurn the call to tell the international community it was not interfering in Lebanese affairs.
Beirut is rife with reports that Syria "encouraged" Hariri to pursue efforts to create a new government, although there were doubts he would choose to work with Lahoud again after his aides accused the presidential camp of blocking his internationally-backed reform programme. Lahoud had urged all Lebanese factions to take part in the new government and Hariri held intense negotiations with the opposition to join. But the Christian Qornet Shehwan Gathering and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who dubbed Lahoud's second term as illegitimate, rejected the offer. They said the authorities were not serious about addressing their grievances regarding ties with Syria, wiping out corruption, and drafting an equitable electoral law ahead of legislative polls in the spring.
"We are strongly convinced that those who decided to violate the constitution and took the decision of extending [President Lahoud's term] cannot be serious about forming a national unity government," MP Nassib Lahoud, the president's cousin and political foe and chair of the opposition Democratic Renewal Movement, said.
The deputy in Parliament, along with Muslim Sunni MP Mosbah Ahdab and the Christian opposition Qornet Shehwan Gathering, all of whom were among 29 deputies who voted against the constitutional amendment, decided to boycott the binding consultations that are carried out ahead of naming a new prime minister. They claimed the results had been "pre-packaged."


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