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Stoking the fire
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 24 - 11 - 2005

Following reports in Damascus that the Lebanese government is ripe to fall, tensions are renewed in Lebanon between pro- and anti-Syrian forces, writes Mohalhel Fakih
Another crisis was averted in Lebanon after Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government decided to subsidise the price of diesel, ending a potentially destabilising standoff with Hizbullah which some in Beirut say was pushed by Syria to crack the government. But Siniora and Hizbullah remain locked in a dispute over an alleged promise by the prime minister to the United Nations to disarm the group, in line with Security Council Resolution 1559.
"The government responded positively to the demands of people, and this lays the basis for a better atmosphere. These were not the demands of a specific political faction, and should not be politicised," MP Ali Hassan Khalil, a top ally of Shia Amal Party leader and House Speaker Nabih Berri, told Al-Ahram Weekly.
Attempts to resolve the dispute come amid escalating tension in the south. Four fighters of Hizbullah's military wing, the Islamic Resistance were killed in clashes with Israeli forces in Monday. Fighting had erupted around the Shebaa farms area still occupied by Israel. Close to ten Isrealis were rerported injured. Israeli forces heavily shelled the countryside and Isreali fighter jets roamed the southern skies on Tuesday.
Hizbullah denied that its criticism of Siniora's government and support for rallies demanding subsidies on diesel, used as heating oil during winter months, was linked to heightened political fever gripping Lebanon and to a report in Syria's state-run Tishreen daily that expected country-wide demonstrations to topple Siniora. "The [decision to subsidise diesel] showed that we need ... to avoid tensions and political suspicions," Hizbullah politburo MP Mohammed Raad said.
MP Nassib Lahoud, a Maronite Christian legislator, welcomed the agreement over diesel subsidies, saying, "The government succeeded in absorbing attempts to politically exploit the difficult social conditions of people ... during this sensitive transitional period of Lebanon's history."
Political anxiety arose when several Muslim Shia ministers, seen as closely aligned to Damascus, walked out of a cabinet meeting after Siniora proposed a debate over Al-Assad's speech. There was pressure for a swift condemnation of Al-Assad from factions loyal to MP Saad Rafik Hariri and his Druze and Christian allies, who have a majority in Lebanon's parliament. Indeed, Lebanese from across the political spectrum roundly condemned the Syrian president's speech, but not Hizbullah, which said it preferred to focus on Al-Assad's criticism of US and Israeli policies in the region.
The Syrian leader's comments, especially his reference to Lebanon's civil war era, sent shockwaves across a country living under the shadow of deadly bombings and assassinations since the 14 February murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri. Al-Assad said a UN investigation of the killing is advancing US goals in the Middle East.
The international probe commissioned by the Security Council and led by veteran German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis has been focusing on the inner circle of Al-Assad. Damascus risks drawing UN sanctions if it refuses to cooperate with Mehlis's request to interview top Syrian officers and officials. On Friday, Riad Al-Daoudi, the Syrian Foreign Ministry's legal advisor, met Mehlis in Spain in an apparent bid to convince the UN to interview six Syrian officers suspected of involvement in Al-Hariri's assassination, including Al-Assad's powerful brother-in-law Major General Asef Shawkat, outside Lebanon. Unconfirmed reports have raised the possibility of interviewing the officers in Europe.
In a crucial report to the Security Council, Mehlis had last month cited evidence that could link the Syrian regime and the former Damascus-backed administration in Lebanon to the killing of Al-Hariri. The report was denounced as unfair by Syria and some of its remaining allies in Lebanon, but the Security Council swiftly passed Resolution 1636, demanding Syrian cooperation with the investigation.
With reference to the unresolved issue of disarming Palestinian and Lebanese militias -- principally Hizbullah -- Lebanon has been arguing that Hizbullah, which spearheaded a campaign that ousted Israel from the south of the country in 2000, should only be disarmed as part of an internal deal established on dialogue, in order to avoid instability. But the group is questioning the official line of the government, which includes Hizbullah members. Siniora had denied making any pledge to special UN envoy Terje Roed-Larsen to de-militarise the group.
Still, security forces are tightening the lid on Palestinian militants based outside Lebanon's Palestinian refugee camps after authorities raised concerns over reported arms smuggling activities across the Syrian border and in light of the shooting and killing of a Lebanese Army surveyor close to Palestinian positions. Palestinian factions reject reports of involvement, as well as charges of Syrian incitement. But this month, Abu Hassan Ghazi, head of the As-Saiqa militia, and Saad Loubani, member of the pro-Syrian Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command, were arrested for carrying out "terrorist" attacks and for illegally possessing arms.
The leader of the Lebanese branch of the Syrian Baath Party, Assem Qanso, warned Siniora, at a Palestinian rally, against pressing the Palestinians, saying "the same thing that happened in 1975," the year that the civil war began in Lebanon, would occur again.
In remarks to the Press News Wire in Beirut, Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh, a critic of Syria who survived a car bombing last year, accused the Syrian regime and remnants of its former administration in Lebanon, of seeking to "destabilise" the country, and "sow discord inside the government," citing tensions over the price of gasoline and arms smuggling operations across the border.
Hamadeh said despite predictions by government-run press in Damascus last week that the Lebanese government would be toppled, the situation remains stable, and made clear that he did not expect Hizbullah "to allow itself to be exploited."
Amid heightened tensions between Beirut and Damascus, the Lebanese government is lobbying through intermediaries for the release of five Lebanese fishermen who were detained by Syrian coastguards near the border town of Arida this week.


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