The visits of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora to Syria and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah to Iran have not, Gamal Essam El-Din reports from Beirut, helped soothe Lebanon's chronic woes When Egypt called for an extraordinary Arab summit two weeks ago, Lebanon was among the first to welcome it. After winning a vote of confidence in parliament on 30 July, the Lebanese government's new Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora said Lebanon seeks to be more open to the Arab world in the coming period. "The Arab support in the next stage of Lebanon's history," Al-Siniora said, "is highly necessary in order to move the country forward towards greater political and economic stability." As most analysts would agree, if navigating Lebanon's economic crisis is tough, Al-Siniora's tackling of the country's chronic political woes will certainly prove much tougher. In fact, the next few months promise to be pregnant with local and regional developments crucial to political and economic stability in Lebanon. Topping these, political analyst Talal Assaf told Al-Ahram Weekly, is that within weeks a UN Commission led by former German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis is expected to publish its report detailing the outcome of its probe into the February assassination of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri. "This report," said Assaf, "is supposed to answer two questions: who ordered the killing of Al-Hariri and who implemented this order? Many Lebanese politicians and journalists are afraid that the report concludes with pointing accusing fingers at Syria." If this happens, said Assaf, "the current rift between Syria and Lebanon will widen dramatically, posing a very serious threat to the relationship between the two countries." Not waiting until the results of this report come out, however, Al-Siniora decided to visit Syria on 31 July. The visit at first seemed to have delivered when Syria decided to ease controls it had imposed on its borders with Lebanon earlier last month. Syria cited concerns over weapons smuggling but the controls led to closing down the only land route for Lebanese trade to other Arab countries. The United States intervened by accusing Syria of attempting to strangle the Lebanese economy. Al-Siniora's visit to Syria, however, ended on a pessimistic note after Damascus resorted to renewing border controls again last Sunday. Worse still, Syria asked Al-Siniora for Lebanon to refrain from hosting meetings of the Syrian opposition (principally, the Muslim Brotherhood) and that hostile campaigns against Syria in the Lebanese press (especially those speaking for the Al-Hariri family, such as Al-Mustaqbal ) should end. For Assaf, the relationship with Syria is the mother of daunting challenges facing Al-Siniora's government. Assaf believes that Syria is currently using Lebanon as a card in its conflict with the United States and France. The US, on the other hand, said Assaf, is trying to use Lebanon in its campaign against the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Assaf hopes that an Arab summit will help redraw the relationship between the two countries. "The two countries should deal with each other on an equal basis, putting into account the supreme considerations of one another," said Assaf. Al-Siniora told the Arabiya satellite TV channel on 5 August that he told Syrian officials that the two countries should deal with each other on an equal footing and in a direct and frank way, rather than via secret intelligence channels as happened in the past. Though cumbersome, re-establishing relations with Syria is but one of the daunting tasks facing Al-Siniora. Another emerged as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took over as a new president of Iran. One day after his swearing in, Ahmadinejad received a large delegation from Hizbullah, the Lebanese militant Shia movement. The delegation's visit, led by Hizbullah's leader Hassan Nasrallah, lasted for almost one week and was followed by a visit to Iran by Syrian President Al-Assad. Lebanese political analysts believe that the conflict between Syria and Iran on one side and America on the other is expected to leave a direct and negative mark on Lebanon. Syria and Iran could join forces against implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which calls for Hizbullah to disarm. During Hizbullah's visit to Iran, the supreme guide Ali Khamenei pledged to strengthen Hizbullah, viewing it as most useful as American pressure mounts over the nuclear issue. Edmund Saad, a veteran political analyst with Al-Nahar newspaper, believes that Nasrallah's visit to Iran is highly significant in that it could end up cornering Lebanon in the current tug of cold war between America and Iran. Saab urged Al-Siniora to open a dialogue with Hizbullah on Resolution 1559. "It is necessary for this government to take the initiative of solving Lebanon's chronic problems rather than [leave it] too late and face solutions imposed from outside," Saab said. Reports are now rampant in Lebanon that during her visit last month to Lebanon, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Lebanese officials that Israel's withdrawal from Gaza this month would make Israel's Prime Minister Ariel Sharon devote most of Israel's military power to securing the border with Lebanon. This, Rice urged, should prompt the Lebanese government to hurry the implementation of Resolution 1559. It is also widely reported that Rice told Lebanese officials that Sharon is reconsidering withdrawing from Shebaa Farms on the borders with Lebanon and Syria, adding as stipulation that the Lebanese government must corner Hizbullah into disarming and deploy the Lebanese army to the south. Another bout of pressure relative to disarming Hizbullah came on 4 August. The UN representative in Southern Lebanon, Gere Pederson, announced that according to UN Security Council Resolution 1614, which was adopted on 29 July, the term of UN Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) will be extended for the last time for another six months. Until then, Pederson said after two meetings with Lebanese President Emile Lahoud and Al-Siniora, Lebanon should move quickly towards implementing Resolution 1559 and disarm Hizbullah. Assaf believes that Pederson's announcement is in reality a result of American pressure aimed at disarming the Shia group and further alienating Syria in Lebanon. Indeed, America's growing role in Lebanese politics is now patently evident. On 4 August, US Ambassador to Lebanon Jeffrey Feltman signed a land purchase contract for a new US Embassy headquarters in the Baabda district. The 72,571 square metre site in Baabda, costing $111 million, will be used to build one of the largest US Embassy compounds in the world. This move, as most Lebanese analysts would agree, shows that the US aims to make Lebanon a long-term springboard in realising its new Middle East project. It is not a secret that several FBI and CIA officials are currently involved in training Lebanese security officers in security matters such as forestalling assassination attempts and defusing explosions. Internal security is, of course, another serious challenge facing Al-Siniora's government. In addition to disarming Hizbullah, Al-Siniora is required to tackle two further equal challenges: disarming Palestinians living in Lebanese refugee camps, and dealing with the return of Lebanese who fled to Israel after the liberation of the South from Israeli forces in 2000. According to semi-official estimates, approximately 7,500 Lebanese sought refuge in Israel in 2000. While most have since returned to Lebanon, roughly 2,700 remain in Israel. Hizbullah strongly rejects their return on grounds that they are Israeli "collaborators". Al-Siniora is of the view that a joint judicial-parliamentary commission should be formed to investigate such claims on a case-by-case basis. In its first meeting on Monday, Al-Siniora's cabinet is reported to have begun discussing this crucial issue and that of the appointment of new security chiefs. Apart from political woes, Al-Siniora's government has the gigantic task of dealing with Lebanon's huge debt of $36 billion. Worse, Lebanon's severe political and security crisis has resulted in lower tourism revenues this summer and, according to Al-Siniora, little or no economic growth since February. Before Monday's meeting, Al-Siniora announced plans to implement a "100-day workshop" programme aimed at accelerating economic growth, generating national income and facing up to the soaring debt. This, however, depends, as does everything else, on resolving the political and security crisis.
