Alliances are shifting in Lebanon ahead of crucial legislative elections next month, reports Mohalhel Fakih from Beirut The Lebanese opposition is expected to sweep into victory ending 15 years of Syrian-dominated rule. But controversy over an electoral law that will govern the polls, scheduled to start on 29 May, has revived the role of staunchly pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud, accused of "instigating sectarianism". An apparent split over the electoral law by exiled General Michel Aoun and MP Walid Jumblatt could further boost the standing of other pro-Syrian figures. At stake is the Syrian-devised 2000 electoral law that will lead Lebanon into elections -- believed to be the first to take place without Syrian involvement since the 1975-1990 civil war. "President Lahoud and his people have an interest in provoking sectarian rhetoric. They pretend to be defending Christian interests. They will continue to do so because they are scared of losing," Antoine Andraous, a Christian MP in Jumblatt's parliamentary bloc, told Al-Ahram Weekly. The opposition leader's decision to maintain his alliance with Christian MPs in Mount Lebanon and not to include new Christian allies has angered Aoun. It appears unlikely that they will create an electoral coalition, but Jumblatt has vowed to maintain his alliance with Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir. United over demands for an end to Syria's pervasive presence, the opposition -- who represent a wide array of political and sectarian factions -- has fallen into disarray over the possibility of holding elections under the 2000 electoral law. Christians see the law as favourable to Muslim constituents. Al-Hariri's son and political heir Saadeddin has agreed with the Maronite Patriarch, a leading voice of the opposition, "to watch out for any traps which are set to delay parliamentary elections," Al-Hariri's aides said. He also rejects "all forms of sectarianism". "The priority is not to delay the election dates. But at the same time, we believe that smaller electoral districts guarantee better representation," the Maronite Patriarch later told reporters. Some opposition figures are accusing President Lahoud and his allies of seeking to torpedo the upcoming ballot by strident denunciation of the 2000 law, which has provided the only mechanism for elections to be held on schedule, in line with a constitutional deadline that was barely met by new Prime Minister Najib Mikati. His appointment ended a two-month political crisis blamed by the opposition on the pro-Syrian authorities, specifically Lahoud, with the aim of postponing the polls, following unprecedented street protests that brought down Lahoud's ally ex-premier Omar Karami. "It was a big mistake not to (dismiss) Lahoud," opposition leader MP Walid Jumblatt told hundreds of visitors in his Mount Lebanon hometown of Mukhtara. "He is outbidding us to protect himself from the international commission, he and Mustafa Hamdan and the others -- and using the remnants of the military regime's media for sectarian incitement," Jumblatt, a top ally of the late Al-Hariri said. Hamdan, head of Lahoud's presidential guards, is one of a handful of security chiefs who have not been sacked. Last week, he was directly implicated in Al-Hariri's murder by ex- intelligence chief, former ambassador Johnny Abdu. The opposition grudgingly accepted the appointment of Lahoud's son-in-law, Elias Murr, as defence minister, to end the political deadlock, and form a government to avoid a delay in elections and the extension of the current heavily Syrian- backed parliament's mandate. Once in cabinet, Murr rejected the appointment of a Muslim to replace Muslim Shia General Security Chief Jamil Sayid who was dismissed for his possible involvement in Al-Hariri's murder. Sayid had been a close ally of Lahoud. Murr said he should be replaced by a Christian -- to revive an old tradition. Another strong supporter of Damascus, Hizbullah, led the opposition against Murr and has insisted a Shia be appointed. "Patriarch Sfeir and Hizbullah, both have a role to play in reducing this sectarian mood. Hizbullah and the Shia are not far from this atmosphere. They need to tone down their rhetoric," MP Andraous told the Weekly. President Lahoud has been the prime backer of the Syrian and Iranian backed group but has appeared to move to the opposite end of the political spectrum by rejecting the appointment of a Muslim to replace the General Security chief, following accusations against Michel Murr, deputy house speaker, of masterminding a plan by Lahoud to re-instate the smallest possible voting district for legislative elections. That draft law was proposed by the previous government and received the blessing of the Maronite Patriarch. Hizbullah supports a system of proportional representation within much larger districts. There was a lack of quorum in a special session slated to discuss a new electoral law last week. Murr said it was plotted by the opposition, which in turn blamed it on Lahoud and "remnants" of Syrian-backed intelligence services. He proposed an initiative to hold another session. "Everyone knows the opposition is serious in finding a solution to the current problem by adopting the 1960 law (of small districts). Initiatives are proposed but never followed through." opposition MP Boutros Harb commented. Confusion reigned in the hours that followed Thursday's session, reflecting the changes that have taken hold since Syria's withdrawal. At first glance, it appeared that Muslim factions in the opposition had struck a deal with Hizbullah and pro-Syrian speaker Nabih Berri to adopt the 2000 law of large voting districts, but the most prominent Christian opposition umbrella, Qornet Shehwan, said it would still participate in the polls, although it rejected the law. "Wasn't it Michel Aoun who said yes to any law? Why have they changed their opinions today and placed all the responsibility on Walid Jumblatt," the prominent Druze politician said. Jumblatt also accused Aoun of making inroads with pro-Syrian figures ahead of his promised 7 May return to Beirut, ending his 15 year exile in France. Aoun would have to clear long-standing legal cases in Lebanon. Some analysts here believe that several Christian opposition figures discreetly backed the adoption of the 2000 law to counter the ramifications of Aoun's return ahead of elections. Aoun's rivals include former Christian warlord Samir Geagea who is serving a life-sentence for charges that his supporters insist were fabricated by Damascus. There is a countrywide drive to win his freedom. "The return of Aoun will not bode well for many Christian figures who are now gradually moving closer to the stance of Muslim factions. Aoun is also engaging in dialogue with President Lahoud, the Murr family and other representatives of the Syrian-supported regime because of a convergence of interests," a political source told the Weekly. "Do not elect those who drove the country towards economic, political and societal abyss, especially after they came up with an electoral law that could allow the forces who destroyed Lebanon to succeed," Aoun told his supporters in a television address from Paris. The exiled former army commander had previously said he would champion any electoral law as long as the polls are not derailed. But Aoun could find himself in a tight spot if the opposition does not forge an alliance to guarantee seats for his candidates in strongholds of his rivals, particularly Geagea's backers. Aoun's return ahead of elections before Geagea is released might not contribute to the unity of the opposition. Their galvanisation will ultimately serve Syria's allies, who have been banking on such a division after their previous attempts to postpone the polls were thwarted. "The security regime that assassinated former prime minister Al-Hariri is the same system that is now collapsing and is made up of the same people who are today calling for adopting the Qadaa (small districts) as if they had nothing to do with what happened," MP Akram Shayeb said.
