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Short on miracles
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 28 - 10 - 2004

Lebanon has a new prime minister, but the worst political crisis to hit the country since the civil war is far from being over. Mohalhel Fakih, in Beirut, reports
Lebanese Prime Minister is not promising "miracles", although he could use one to placate growing internal and international opposition to Syria's role in Lebanon and mounting United Nations pressure on Damascus to withdraw troops from its smaller neighbour. Karami took over from the globally connected Rafiq Al- Hariri who was forced out of office in a bitter row with President Emile Lahoud, as Lebanon's immunity to geopolitical changes in the Middle East appears to be eroding.
"This is a confrontational phase," Ahmed Ayash, a prominent analyst told Al-Ahram Weekly. The recent Syrian-backed extension of Lahoud's mandate and the appointment of Karami manifests a changing political environment directly related to Middle Eastern developments, Ayash said.
"I am aware of the foreign pressures on Lebanon and the size of the internal problems, but I am not afraid to take this responsibility... It is our duty to confront with spirit and open heart during this delicate period of external pressures on Lebanon and Syria," Prime Minister Karami told the Lebanese.
The extension of Lahoud's mandate had dipped Lebanon into its worst political crisis since the civil war ended in 1990. By appointing Karami, President Lahoud guaranteed an upper hand in running the country. This was partly in response to the United States and French sponsored UN Security Council Resolution 1559 last month demanding Syrian forces exit Lebanon, Hizbullah be disarmed and Syrian intervention in Lebanese politics cease.
Syria and Hizbullah were not named, but they were specifically mentioned in a report by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan in which he declared Lebanon and Syria in breach of the resolution. His report was unanimously adopted by the council last week in a presidential statement that tasked him with semi-annual progress reports on compliance.
"It is a serious situation because the Security Council regained its unity after it was split [over Iraq]," a well-informed diplomatic source told the Weekly in Beirut.
Although Resolution 1559 barely squeezed through, with nine out of 15 Security Council members supporting it, last week's statement was unanimously approved, even by Algeria and Pakistan, which had rejected any mention of Syria. While the statement did not mention Syria by name, it welcomed Annan's report that had explicitly named Syria and Hizbullah.
Syria's troops have been stationed across Lebanon to maintain some stability during the civil war. The international community ignored Syria's role here especially after it backed the US-led coalition that ousted Iraqi troops from Kuwait in 1990.
"The US wants to bring some kind of stability to the region as part of its grand Middle East plan. It wants Syria to change its role. We saw the removal of Saddam Hussein, Ariel Sharon is gearing up to withdraw Israeli troops and settlers from the Gaza Strip, and in the same context Washington requires Syria to leave Lebanon, curb Hizbullah and secure the Syrian-Iraqi border," Ayash explained.
"I hope the Syrians realise that we are now in a new age," US Secretary of State Colin Powell said following Al-Hariri's resignation. He urged Damascus to adopt "more relevant policies" to the "new world". "When we see the personnel changes that have taken place with Al-Hariri stepping down and others coming into positions of power who are even more closely linked to Syria, [it] once again shows that Syria is playing an inappropriate role in political life and in the civic life of the Lebanese people," Powell told Abu Dhabi Television.
While the US opposes Syrian troops in Lebanon, Beirut and Damascus argue that Syrian forces are in Lebanon and Lebanese- Syrian ties are regulated through existing bilateral agreements. Both countries agree to Syrian presence, contrary to Syria opposing the illegal Israeli occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights -- an issue the US always vetoes on the rare occasions it shows its face in the Security Council.
"1559 is illegal intervention in Syrian- Lebanese relationship," Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Al-Sharaa said after the Security Council adopted the presidential statement last week. Beirut too rejected it. "Lebanon still considers Resolution 1559 a dangerous precedent of interference on the part of the UN Security Council," Mohamed Issa, the Lebanese Foreign Ministry's secretary-general said.
But Washington is not convinced. "The United States is extremely worried by the current situation in Lebanon because of Syrian interference," Deputy Assistant Secretary of State David Satterfield warned. He said President George W Bush "has available a number of measures he could take and which would have an effect on the United States' economic, financial and commercial relations with Syria."
But Syria insists it did not force a constitutional amendment that allowed President Lahoud to remain in office for three more years and was not involved in the appointment of Karami. "If Syria controlled Lebanon it would have appointed a prime minister in five minutes," Syrian Information Minister Mahdi Dakhlala said. He told a Beirut radio station that Syria will only intervene if "ties between the Lebanese lead to new tensions in Lebanon, then Syria will play the role of supporting the Lebanese people."
After weeks of negotiations Lahoud and Al-Hariri could not agree on forming a new government, following the resignation of four ministers, three of them allies of opposition leader Deputy Walid Jumblatt. They stepped down to protest against Lahoud's extended term. Al- Hariri, a symbol of economic progress despite the country's $35 billion debt, cited his political differences with the president as a reason for leaving office.
The opposition boycotted constitutionally-binding consultations that Lahoud held with parliamentarians to appoint a new prime minister. "It is staged," Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, backed by the Christian opposition faction Qornet Shehwan, said.
Shehwan and Jumblatt had actually spurned a call by Al-Hariri to join a new government. Shehwan also rejected a similar offer by Karami, whose government will have to step down in May when legislative elections are held. The opposition said the authorities were not serious about rectifying ties with Damascus and were only paying lip service to international pressure.
Jumblatt went a step further. He not only accused the state apparatus of masterminding an assassination attempt against his top ally, Marwan Hamadeh, who had resigned to protest against Lahoud's new term, but also warned the "Lebanese and Syrian intelligence services" against continued interference in the country's public affairs.
The outspoken Progressive Socialist Party chief broke another taboo. He questioned Lebanese claims over the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms. The UN ruled Israel's 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon was complete and that the Shebaa Farms belonged to Syria. Damascus and Beirut insisted it is Lebanese land, hence Hizbullah could continue to engage in military action against Israel.
"Let them show us evidence that Shebaa Farms is ours," Jumblatt told hundreds of supporters in his Mukhtara village mountain home. Lebanon "cannot remain hostage" to the Arab-Israeli conflict, he said, but made clear "there will be difficult" times ahead.


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