Amr Moussa's Lebanon reconciliation mission could fail if rival parties continue to stall, Dina Ezzat reports The last thing that Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa might have wished to hear this week was the news of two consecutive explosions in Lebanon. These explosions occurred less than 24 hours after his two-day visit to Syria where he tried to lobby Damascus to lend substantive support to Lebanese reconciliation. The worst news -- if anything can overshadow the loss of life and horror incurred -- is that the explosions reopened the exchange of harsh accusations between conflicting camps in Lebanon. On Tuesday, two explosions ripped through two commuter buses travelling on a busy mountain highway northeast of Beirut, killing three and injuring 20, police said. Witnesses said that a bomb exploded first on one bus, at around 9am. As people and rescuers rushed to the scene, a second explosion, about 10 minutes later, tore through a second bus that had been following behind it. Shortly after the blasts, the pro-government majority coalition in parliament said in a statement that it holds "the Syrian regime fully responsible for this despicable crime". It accused Syria of trying to "make Lebanon another Iraq by destroying its security and stability". The coalition also blasted Syrian-backed Hizbullah, calling for enhanced security on the border with Syria "to halt the flow of arms to subversive groups directly linked to [Syria's] regime". Like most Arab officials, Moussa was prompt in condemning the explosions and calling for stability and calm to prevail. But his concerns go far beyond this incident. In the early dawn hours of Tuesday, Moussa returned from Damascus with little to show. The Arab League secretary-general had a hard time convincing his Syrian interlocutors, including President Bashar Al-Assad, to lend support to the demand of the Lebanese majority led by Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora and opposition led by Hizbullah to formulate the basic rules of an international tribunal that would try accused assassins of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri. The composition of the international tribunal, its rules of procedure in Lebanon and details of its mandate are among the toughest point in the mediation that Moussa has been conducting in Lebanon for three months. Through a swing of visits, delegation of envoys and phone calls, Moussa has managed to soften, but not completely resolve, differences between the two conflicting camps on other issues, including the composition of a national unity government where neither the majority nor the opposition would be in a situation to unilaterally pass or block consequential legislation. The political crisis in Lebanon has been live since the assassination of Hariri on 14 February 2005. Following the killing, the majority accused the opposition of covering up for Syria, which was widely perceived in Lebanon to be directly or indirectly linked to Hariri's assassination following a fall-out between the Lebanese politician and his former political allies in Damascus over constitutional amendments supported -- some say imposed -- by Syria to allow for an extension of the mandate of pro-Syrian Lebanese President Emile Lahoud. The tension appeared to ease with the pullout of Syrian troops that had been stationed in Lebanon for close to three decades and accused of much political, security and even economic mishap. A series of explosions and assassinations that primarily targeted the anti-Syrian camp, however, inexorably brought tension back to the surface. Last summer anxiety worsened due to the division of opinion over the political and military calculations -- and for that matter inclinations -- behind Hizbullah's operation against Israeli army soldiers and the subsequent Israeli war on Lebanon. Since the end of the war in autumn, both camps have been engaged in a political tug of war. The crescendo of this confrontation occurred when the majority used its influence in government to pass a resolution legalising the establishment of the international tribunal without the consent of the opposition. The opposition's reservations are closely associated with the concerns of Syria -- still their ally -- that senior Syrian politicians and security figures may stand accused of involvement in the killing of Hariri. "There are complications and we have to work on resolving these complications in a step-by- step approach," Moussa cautioned in Damascus following his meetings. Sources close to the mission say that in Damascus Moussa was told that Syria would agree to whatever the Lebanese would agree to. "We want stability and security for Lebanon. We believe that the Lebanese have to agree on a consensual exit out of their problem," said Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Moalem during a joint press conference Monday with Moussa in Damascus. "This is not what he was there to hear," said one source on condition of anonymity. "He heard that before and on that mission he was hoping to secure more commitment than rhetoric." On Sunday, before embarking on his mission to Syria, Moussa told reporters that his mediation in Lebanon had not hit a dead-end, despite expected difficulties. "This is not an issue that would have been finalised in a couple of days or weeks," he said. Following his return from Damascus, Moussa was not beaming with optimism but neither was he pessimistic. No imminent return to Lebanon was mentioned. On Tuesday, Moussa was talking of further Arab consultations before deciding the next move. Sources say that he has been in extensive consultation with Cairo and that he is considering a trip to the Saudi capital. In Riyadh, Moussa is expected to seek the support of King Abdullah to launch a Saudi-Syrian reconciliation drive. Saudi Arabia and Syria had a serious fallout in the wake of the assassination of Hariri who was also holding Saudi citizenship. "Today, without giving Syria better Arab recognition than it has had for the past two years, it is difficult to expect flexibility to come from Damascus," commented one Cairo-based Arab diplomat. According to this diplomat, Saudi Arabia, in its capacity as the next chair of the Arab summit that will convene in March, and in view of the new high diplomatic profile it has established for itself in the region following Palestinian reconciliation talks, is likely to grant Moussa what he is hoping for. In Riyadh, Moussa should be updated on the outcome of the joint Saudi-Iranian effort exerted in the past four weeks since Moussa's last trip to Beirut in December 2006. While the Lebanese opposition seems to be more in favour of this mediation, the majority coalition is more in favour of Moussa's mediation. With the consent of Saudi Arabia, Moussa could move towards melding both efforts. Meanwhile, Moussa has a standing invitation from Tehran. Until now, though he indicated his interest to visit Iran, no date has been fixed. In view of the sensitivities between Iran and Moussa's own country, Egypt, as well as other Arab states, it might be hard for the secretary-general to board a plane to Tehran soon enough for prompt consultations on the explosive Lebanese file. Moussa would also want to bring Damascus a nod of encouragement from Cairo, whose relations with Damascus has been going through a difficult phase due to Egypt's frustration with Syria's unwillingness to demonstrate sufficient political pragmatism in dealing with the Lebanese issue among other regional concerns.
