Neither a Hamas-Israeli truce nor Lebanese political reconciliation seem round the corner, but restraint might be possible, Dina Ezzat reports Test of will Can Arab states work collectively to forestall Lebanon's slide towards civil war? One would hope An Arab League ministerial delegation that arrived in Lebanon yesterday amid scepticism and ambiguity concerning its mandate and positions is expected to put enough pressure on all Lebanese political forces to induce an end to direct hostilities sparked over the weekend. Under the chairmanship of Qatari Foreign Minister Hamad Ben Jassim and Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, the delegation includes the foreign ministers of Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Algeria, Djibouti, Oman, Morocco and Yemen. Carrying no particular title, this delegation was formed by way of the collective -- if reluctant -- will of Arab foreign ministers in a meeting convened Sunday on Egypt's initiative at the Cairo headquarters of the Arab League. The ministerial delegation is slated to hold meetings during the next 48 hours with all leading political figures. Contrary to previous political missions over the past two years (since the beginning of open confrontation among Lebanese protagonists over the political identity of Lebanon), this delegation will not immediately attempt to reconcile political forces or promote formulas for power sharing. The objective, according to statements made by Moussa, is to contain the situation on the ground. "We now want the hostilities to come to an end. This is the top priority," Moussa told reporters after the Sunday meeting. The resolution adopted by the emergency Arab League foreign ministers meeting stated that, "all Arab countries affirmed their utter rejection of the past days' developments in Lebanon, especially the carrying of arms and use of violence in a threat to civil peace in this country." The foreign ministers demanded that all militant activities be immediately suspended. The resolution was preceded with an appeal to all political players to spare Lebanon the prospect of armed civil confrontation. The resolution fell short, however, of offering a recipe for the said objective to be delivered. Core political differences remain between leaders of the opposition and the majority government, especially relating to conflicting regional and international political affiliations. Arab diplomats who participated in the meeting acknowledged that it was impossible for any detailed account of political action to be included in the Arab League resolution. The fact is, they said, that the most influential Arab states when it comes to Lebanon -- Syria, with ties to the opposition, and Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser extent Egypt, with ties to the majority government -- are not in agreement over the diagnosis of Lebanon's problems or the remedy to its political woes. Arab diplomatic sources say that while Saudi Arabia and Egypt, whose foreign ministers coordinated prior to the ministerial meeting, wanted the Arab League session to denounce Hizbullah and contemplate sending Arab troops to Lebanon to support the Lebanese army in deterring Hizbullah. Syria, supported by Qatar, Algeria, Sudan and Yemen, opposed this scenario categorically. "If the committee decides before it goes who is right and who is wrong then its mission is set to fail," commented Youssef Ahmed, Syria's permanent representative to the Arab League. Egyptian and Saudi foreign ministers declined to make press statements. A source close to the Saudi delegation, however, revealed that both Cairo and Riyadh are uncomfortable with the decision of the foreign ministers meeting to keep to the middle ground. According to this source, if expected to confront a situation as grave as the one in Lebanon, Arab countries should be in a position to be upfront about blaming "those who threaten Lebanese civil unity". Arab diplomats admit that the absence of Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia from the composition of the ministerial committee assigned to handle the current Lebanese crisis illustrates the continued polarisation between them. "It is true that there are serious internal Lebanese factors involved, and that none of these countries can move their Lebanese allies by remote control -- including the case of Syria and Hizbullah. But without reconciliation among these countries it is difficult to see how they would want or could induce reconciliation in Lebanon," commented an Arab diplomat who asked for his name to be withheld. Arab League Secretary-General Moussa attempted to fudge the issue during the press conference that followed the ministerial meeting, arguing that all member states of the Arab League would support efforts to remedy the Lebanese crisis. Moussa, sources say, has been trying without success to secure some level of rapport between Cairo and Riyadh on the one hand and Damascus on the other hand. The chances of such reconciliation seem more difficult now than ever. A new added difficulty, Arab diplomats accept, that could further reduce the chances of such reconciliation is the language adopted by the Arab foreign ministers meeting regarding support for the Lebanese army. As one Arab diplomat warned, if support were to be directed on a sectarian basis, "from Sunni Arab states, especially Egypt and Saudi Arabia" to the Sunni leadership of the Lebanese army, excluding the Shia leadership, it is bound to aggravate an already fragile situation. Secretary-General Moussa dismissed this scenario. He insisted that Lebanese Army Chief Michel Suleiman, the consensual presidential candidate accepted by both the majority and opposition, would decide the quality and quantity of assistance afforded. According to statements made, the Moussa-Ben Jassim chaired Arab ministerial committee is primarily hoping to reduce prospects of violence to allow political rapprochement a window. Later, the committee is hoping to convene again in the Qatari capital with representatives of all of Lebanon's conflicting political forces to move beyond containment to resolving the core political crisis on the basis of the Arab initiative adopted in recent months with the support of all Arab states, albeit with different readings. Arab foreign ministers, sources say, may reconvene in the coming weeks to follow up on present efforts.
