Acting Lebanese Foreign Minister Tarek Mitri tells Dina Ezzat that reconciliation in Lebanon could be within reach It has become almost impossible to find any Lebanese politician willing to clearly affirm either optimism or pessimism regarding the current political stand-off in Lebanon between the Shia resistance group Hizbullah -- along with some Christian factions -- and the Sunni-led Lebanese government of Fouad Al-Siniora. Despite many disagreements among political foes in Lebanon, there is one thing all seem in agreement on: resolution to Lebanon's crisis might come within days or be delayed until the autumn when scheduled presidential elections will open the door for sharp confrontations. Today, Lebanese of conflicting political affiliations are conscious of intensive Saudi attempts to bring them closer to reconciliation, maybe through a meeting to take place in Saudi Arabia within days, with the participation of the 14 key political figures that took part in the last round of national dialogue four months ago before Lebanon fell into political deadlock. "There is a new Saudi proposition ... But until this very hour things have not been shaped up as such ... But things have been evolving and are evolving very fast ... One can never tell what will happen tomorrow," said Tarek Mitri, Lebanon's acting minister of foreign affairs. Mitri spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly Tuesday morning in Cairo in the wake of meetings with the council of Arab foreign ministers and with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Mitri was not shy of admitting that the Lebanese political scene remains typically unpredictable with regional rather than internal developments being the main influence. With the countdown to the Arab summit -- scheduled to convene in Riyadh 28 March -- having begun, Saudi diplomacy has up-scaled efforts to broker a reconciliation deal among Lebanese factions ahead of the summit's opening. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, several Arab diplomatic sources said, is not interested in hosting a showdown between Lebanon's president and Prime Minister Al-Siniora. The rift that opened within Lebanon's diplomatic delegation during last year's Arab summit, sources say, is something the Saudi monarch is determined not to repeat. Moreover, Saudi Arabia is keen to underline its new Arab diplomatic clout that was highlighted when Riyadh brokered a Palestinian reconciliation deal a few weeks ago. During talks last week in the Saudi capital, King Abdullah and visiting Iranian President Mohamed Ahmadinejad -- with their direct influence on conflicting Lebanese factions -- agreed that growing Sunni-Shia polarisation in Lebanon has to be stemmed. As such, the green light was given from Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal to Saudi Ambassador in Beirut Abdel-Aziz Al-Khodja to hold an intensive round of meetings with Lebanese leaders to test the waters for a potential conference to be hosted in Riyadh in the coming days. "The atmosphere is very, very positive," the Saudi ambassador said Monday after meeting with Al-Siniora. "I hope a solution will be reached before the Arab summit," he added. Al-Khodja also met with Lahoud and other protagonists before being summoned by his Al-Faisal for direct consultations on the prospects -- or lack thereof -- of a Lebanese reconciliation meeting. "If Lebanese leaders approve the agreement, Saudi Arabia will be ready to host them in a meeting to help resolve the crisis." According to Mitri, who as a majority affiliate is substituting for Shia Foreign Minister Fawzy Saloukh, any deal, "be it sponsored by the Saudis or by Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, who has been pursuing an end to the political deadlock for months," would have to include an answer to two pressing problems: the opposition's demand for veto power in government and the ratification of an international tribunal to try suspects in the 2005 murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri and possibly other Lebanese politicians who have been assassinated since. "These are the key issues. We cannot go for a partial agreement. Any agreement has to be comprehensive," Mitri said. Secretary-General Moussa launched the search for a comprehensive agreement towards the end of 2006, upon the recommendation of Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Moussa's shuttle diplomacy between conflicting Lebanese factions failed to produce a deal. His attempts to lobby the support of Syria -- a key player in Lebanese internal politics and a direct supporter to the opposition -- also failed to bare fruit. Moussa, however, did not engage Tehran, where many political analysts say the real influence on Hizbullah lies. Moussa's mediation efforts have been put on hold for weeks. A parallel effort orchestrated by Iran's National Security Chief Ali Larijani and Saudi counterpart Prince Bandar Ben Abdel-Aziz has also fallen short of securing a solution. "The issue is not about the brokers. The issue is about the awareness of all concerned parties, in and out of Lebanon, that the longer the standoff lasts, the more consequential harm Lebanon will sustain on the political and economic fronts," Mitri said. "Today, I believe there is a realisation on the part of many Lebanese that this standoff has to come to an end," Mitri added. "There is a genuine fear of a return to civil war if this problem is left unresolved. There is a real fear that we will be again confronted with bombings and assassinations. Public opinion is impatiently asking for a settlement." Judging by deliberations at the meetings of Arab foreign ministers earlier this week in Cairo, where a resolution was proposed by the Lebanese delegation to secure Arab support for the establishment of an international tribunal, there is no deal in Lebanon without the consent of Syria. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Moalem objected to a draft proposed by the Lebanese delegation on the tribunal. Al-Moalem's objection, Arab diplomatic sources say, was based on two factors: the resolution represents the view of part of Lebanon, namely the government, and addressed only one of the two critical political issues. Nonetheless, Al-Moalem agreed to a watered-down resolution that "depoliticises" the proposed tribunal in a way that reassures an anxious Damascus that stands accused in the eyes of many Lebanese factions, and Arab and world capitals, of masterminding the killing of Hariri. For Mitri, this deal is not necessarily a sign of a nearby reconciliation in Lebanon, because the language included in the resolution adopted by the Arab foreign ministers council is too vague to be adopted by political protagonists in Lebanon. The Lebanese minister acknowledged, however, that the agreement reached in Cairo may be a sign that Syria is willing to reach out to the rest of the Arab world for a deal. "So, there is a momentum there and the Saudis could certainly work with the Iranians, Egyptians and others to give this momentum a push by exercising influence over Syria," Mitri said. Mitri acknowledged there is an understanding on the side of Lebanese government that there is a limit to how far it can go in opposing Syria. Realism, he said, should reign. "We want to strike a deal. We know that we have to make concessions and we are willing to make concessions in relation to the mandate of the tribunal ... We are even willing to accept a little delay in the works of the tribunal," Mitri stated. He added, however, "we are not going to be the only ones to make concessions." These "concessions", Mitri insisted, would never go so far as to scrap the tribunal, as some political quarters in Lebanon and Syria have been demanding. "This is out of the question. The UN Security Council authorises this tribunal; so it is not just about the support we have from the US or from [French President Jacques] Chirac," he said. Mitri added, "This tribunal is not just about making those, or some of those, who committed crimes in the past pay for their crimes. It is about deterrence and immunity. The message of this tribunal is not vindictive; the message is that the age of immunity is over." Once a deal on the tribunal is concluded, Mitri argued, it should be easy to strike a deal on the form of participation of the opposition in a national unity government. "These are two parallel issues, but certainly a breakthrough in one would help the other -- the tribunal is the one that could help the government," he said. Regarding other key political issues in Lebanon, according to Mitri, "The disarmament of Hizbullah is not an issue for us now. But one day, sooner or later, when we are talking about all the files and big issues we would have to discuss this matter." Regarding timing, Mitri confessed, "I think it would be naive to suggest that such complicated matters could be concluded in a matter of days." Despite the leverage Saudi Arabia enjoys in the region, "I think what we are talking about is more the beginning of a process that should be followed by further negotiations to be conducted in parallel with confidence building measures," Mitri said. Threats and public attacks between the different political factions need to end. "Such steps could help build the confidence necessary for constructive negotiations." Meanwhile on Tuesday, the Lebanese press reported American reluctance to back Saudi attempts to broker a deal if it involved substantial limitations on the role and mandate of the international tribunal. This American veto, some Lebanese commentators suggested, could decrease the chances of success for the Saudi initiative. And what if no deal is reached before the Arab summit? "Well, it would be unfortunate if no meeting could be arranged before the summit ... The Saudi initiative is not different from that proposed by the Arab League. Perhaps Moussa would come back again," replied Mitri. For his part, Moussa has been reluctant to announce any plans of returning to Lebanon for a new round of mediation. Speaking at a joint press conference with former Lebanese President Amin Al-Gemayel Monday, Moussa declined to say when or if he would go back to Lebanon. Moussa's last trip to Beirut was in December. The Lebanese opposition, especially Nabih Berri, speaker of the Lebanese parliament, have all but shrugged off the continuation of Arab League mediation. The opposition seem more inclined to work with the Saudis because, some sources say, it is Riyadh not Moussa who can grant Syria an easy path to reconciliation with Arab and world capitals. But irrespective of the broker, "any deal would have to be tailored to the interests of all sides," Mitri said.
