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Tough cases to crack
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 21 - 08 - 2008

Egypt played host to a series of Arab meetings that focussed on regional frictions
In Alexandria this week, President Hosni Mubarak held a series of meetings with Arab leaders. Sultan Qabous of Oman, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora were all in the Mediterranean coastal city for talks on a range of pressing regional issues, reports Dina Ezzat. Visiting dignitaries received Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa for follow-up consultations.
The Palestinian case was a top priority, with growing concerns over the flimsy chances of Palestinian and Israeli negotiators to conclude as little as a framework agreement before the end of the tenure of US President George W Bush and with equally growing concern over an aggravated inter-Palestinian struggle.
Egypt, according to statements made Friday evening in Alexandria by Presidential Spokesman Suleiman Awwad, is pressing ahead with its plans to promote inter- Palestinian reconciliation but is making the success or failure of that goal the responsibility of Palestinian factions -- "all of them, not just Fatah and Hamas".
Awwad said that Egypt was willing to receive the factions that were invited for dialogue (with no fixed date yet) once they have all sent coherent replies to the letters of invitation sent that demanded clear commitment and clarity on a set of issues necessary for the success of such dialogue.
"It is obvious that the current [inter] Palestinian situation is [frustrating]. We saw the images of all but naked Palestinian men [escaping Gaza] to Israel in search for rescue. This was one of the extremely regrettable scenes that we want to work on overcoming," Awwad said.
He added that for the reconciliation to be secured and effectively executed, "all factions need to refrain from restricting themselves within narrow factional interests. It is [only] then that Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the entire Arab family and Arab League would be able to help conclude a reconciliation."
Informed Palestinian sources -- of Fatah affiliation -- told Al-Ahram Weekly that the chances of successful Palestinian reconciliation are not high. Egypt, one said, was explicit in its rejection of an inconclusive dialogue, or to work for a reconciliation deal that would not be honoured. According to this source, Egypt wants assurances, without which it may refrain from hosting the dialogue. This source suggested that Cairo and Riyadh -- whose Mecca agreement for Palestinian reconciliation in February 2007 was very short-lived -- seem to be in favour of getting the Arab League to consider, at least for now, alternatives for dialogue. "The factions, or some of them, will be soon sending delegations for consultations but for the dialogue to be officially initiated there has to be a minimum agreement in advance on how the issues at hand would be addressed," an Egyptian official said.
Meanwhile, there is no evidence that the Arab League, whose patronage has been sought by the Palestinians, especially Hamas, is more optimistic about the chances of reconciliation than Egypt, nor that it is willing to pursue a doomed diplomatic effort. Recent statements by Moussa where he publicly condemned both Fatah and Hamas for the current Palestinian standoff indicate considerable Arab frustration with what one Arab diplomat qualified as a "lack of genuine interest among Palestinians to pursue serious reconciliation".
In Alexandria this week, however, views were exchanged on how to coax the Palestinians into putting their house in order. One senior Arab diplomat suggested that there is a growing tendency within Arab political quarters to push towards publicly and collectively holding all -- or most of -- the factions responsible for the current situation. He added, however, that this might be difficult, given that "some Arab capitals would not want to blame Fatah while others would not blame Hamas."
"We will wait and see what will come out of the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli negotiations," commented one diplomatic source on condition of anonymity. According to this diplomat, if these talks hit the impasse they are expected to hit, it might be easier to promote reconciliation because at that point each of the factions would want to have wide Palestinian support for the next national move. "They would feel more in need of one another," he said.
No Egyptian or other Arab official has given a clear reaction to news leaked this week in the Israeli press about a potential framework agreement between the Palestinian and Israelis that would give the Palestinians some 97 per cent of the West Bank -- including 10 to 12 per cent in a land swap -- and excludes a final decision on the fate of East Jerusalem, occupied by Israel during the 1967 war, or the right of return for Palestinian refugees.
The focus of Egyptian, Saudi and wider Arab attention seems to be on containing Palestinian strife ahead of feared complications in the Arab Gulf. Following Mubarak-Abdullah talks in Alexandria on Friday, Awwad was explicit in expressing Egyptian and general Arab concern over developments in the standoff between Iran and the West. In unusual fashion, Awwad called for the Iranian leadership to apply wisdom in its policy, recalling the "hardship that Saddam Hussein inflicted on his people twice: once in 1990 when he invaded Kuwait and [again in 2003] when he declined to offer sufficient evidence that he [had] destroyed the weapons of mass destruction".
"Today, Iran needs to demonstrate transparency on its nuclear programme," Awwad added.
According to Moussa, following consultations, "there is so much that is going on in the region that gives cause for concern -- especially the Palestinian-Israeli struggle -- and there is very little to give hope. But the Lebanese scene, especially with regard to the positive developments between Syria and Lebanon, is certainly something that we feel comfortable about."
Moussa applauded the decision of Syria and Lebanon to establish diplomatic ties and suggested that, "such a positive move" could open the door for the full reintegration of Syria within the Arab fold.
Moussa and Awwad concurred that Arab reconciliation is a pressing need in times of regional turmoil. Neither, however, gave a sign of when such a breakthrough might be achieved.


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