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'A spark that may catch fire'
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 24 - 01 - 2008

The Arab League's Hesham Youssef tells Dina Ezzat that closer Arab coordination is key for Lebanon
When Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa was leaving to Lebanon late last week in yet another round of mediation between the parliamentary majority and the opposition, he seemed in an inexplicably upbeat mood.
Speaking to the press last Wednesday before boarding a plane to Beirut, Moussa was not willing to entertain many questions about what he qualified as "alarmist scenarios". The veteran Arab diplomat rejected predictions of diplomatic failure due to the ambiguity of an initiative text that he drafted along with foreign ministers of key regional players at Moussa's residence and that Moussa took with him. Nor was he willing to dwell on signs of deteriorating security in Lebanon and possible threats to his personal safety.
In Beirut, Moussa was confronted by both "booby traps". First, Lebanon's key political forces failed to see eye-to-eye on interpreting the Arab initiative and are asking the Arab League chief to decipher the text. Second, Moussa's personal safety was put in question. On the fourth day of his five-day sojourn, Moussa appeared subject to an assassination attempt foiled by Lebanese security. Hesham Youssef, Moussa's chief of cabinet and envoy to Lebanon, played down the suggestion: "This is not accurate at all. There was no assassination attempt that we know of. There was a moment where the guards were suspicious of a parked car but that is it," he said.
Youssef acknowledges that security situation in Lebanon is volatile. "A spark may catch fire in this country and then the loss will be everyone's," Youssef said in interview with Al-Ahram Weekly on return from Beirut Sunday. "The main issue -- or rather the crux of the problem today -- is related to the composition of the government," Youssef said.
The Arab text on the political crisis in Lebanon adopted by an emergency Arab Foreign Ministers' Council earlier this month had three main propositions: the prompt election of Lebanese army chief Michel Suleiman as president; the composition of a government where neither side could be charged with stalling or hijacking the political will of the cabinet and where the president would have the swing vote in any dispute; and the formulation of a new electoral law.
Agreement over the composition of the government proved the toughest issue in Moussa's mediation attempts in Beirut and in consultations with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Al-Assad's Syria carries traditional political influence in Lebanon and is supportive of the opposition while Egypt and Saudi Arabia favour the parliamentary majority in power.
The opposition insists that the Arab text guarantees them one third of the 30-seat cabinet while another third would go to the majority, the final third selected by presidential nomination. This interpretation of the Arab text runs counter to that of the parliamentary majority that insists it has a right to a more than one third share. In response, the opposition replied that if the majority camp was to have more than one third of the seats, then one third plus one seat should be allocated to the opposition, to allow it prevent the political will of the government from being hijacked.
"The secretary-general made a compromise proposition: 13 seats for the majority, 10 seats for the opposition and seven seats for the president," said Youssef. He added, "Unfortunately, this has not been accepted yet." Even the meeting that Moussa held at great difficulty between opposition leader Michel Aoun and majority figures Saad Al-Hariri and former President Amin Gemayel did not produce a solution. A second follow-up meeting was cancelled on Aoun's declared illness. Attempts on Youssef's part to work with opposition and majority camp aides also ended inconclusively.
Like Moussa, Youssef declines to use qualifiers like "failure" and "dead-end". He also declines to say who is responsible for the interminable crisis. "The secretary-general is still conducting his mediation. He is in touch with the concerned parties and key regional players everyday. The game is not over," he said.
Regarding the Arab initiative on the composition of a Lebanese government, Youssef would not say what the Arab foreign ministers' meeting scheduled for Sunday at the Arab League would offer. "The important thing now is that we need to keep -- and even solidify -- the consensus that was established when Arab foreign ministers met earlier this month. The closer the Arab rapport [among key players], the better it is for the objective of resolving the Lebanese crisis," he said.
According to Youssef, Moussa on Sunday will report in detail on his consultations in Lebanon and also offer his own assessment of the situation. So far, Youssef remains tight-lipped on whether Moussa will return to Beirut soon. "It depends on political and other developments in Lebanon and elsewhere in the region. It also depends on the outcome of consultations that he is permanently conducting."
To suggestions that developments in Gaza may put the Lebanese crisis on hold, Youssef replied, simply, "Lebanon is a priority."


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