Forming a government of national unity may be easier than getting it to work, writes Khalid Amayreh from the West Bank A high-level Arab League delegation arrived in Beirut this week for consultations aimed at assessing the chances for reconciliation. Headed by Ambassador Hesham Youssef, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa's chief of staff, the delegation's two-day visit, which started on Monday, included meetings with key political players. The visit comes amid the standoff between the Lebanese government and the Hizbullah-led opposition over the proposed international tribunal to try the assassins of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri. The exchange of accusations between the two sides has included the Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora and the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament Nabih Berri, who is in the opposition camp. The delegation arrived in Beirut days before the second anniversary of Hariri's death on 14 February, and against a backdrop of increasing Israeli provocation of Hizbullah. Yesterday Israel's defence minister accused Syria of allowing Hizbullah to rearm, and said Israel reserved the right to take "forcefull" action to counter the threat. During his stay in Beirut, Youssef was keen to clarify his mission. His aim, he said, was to assess the possibility of Moussa visiting Lebanon to resume his mediation. Moussa placed his shuttle diplomacy on hold in late December, saying at the time that his efforts to encourage reconciliation had not succeeded, though the Arab League secretary-general did manage to contain any further escalation of the confrontation between the Lebanese government and opposition. Moussa left the conflicting parties with a set of ideas aimed at closing the gap between them on the composition of a national unity government. His proposals included the majority parties keeping two-thirds of cabinet seats with less than one-third going to the opposition. One cabinet seat would be reserved for an independent, neutral candidate agreed by the majority and opposition, a formula intended to reassure the opposition that the make-up of the cabinet would not contravene the principles of Lebanon's consensual democracy. It was the departure from consensus on the part of the majority in the Siniora government that ignited the political crisis in Lebanon, boiling since the assassination of Hariri two years ago and which reached an explosive point during the Israeli war against Lebanon last summer with Hizbullah accusing the government of playing in the hands of the aggressor. Moussa also asked Lebanon's conflicting factions to consider fixing the rules of the international tribunal and contemplate possible scenarios, and the political implications, of early elections. While the opposition has been demanding fresh parliamentary elections, the government has said they should be expanded to allow for the replacement of Lebanese President Emil Lahoud, whom the Siniora camp view as having been imposed by Damascus. While acknowledging the obstacles to his mission, Youssef declined to comment on their gravity or whether or not they would torpedo Moussa's mediation efforts. An informed source says Youssef is likely to advise Moussa to consider resuming his diplomatic mission provided he can secure the support of key regional players, most notably Syria, which has close contacts with the opposition, and Saudi Arabia, which is in direct communication with Al-Siniora's government. Youssef, says the source, is "neither optimistic nor pessimistic". His assessment is likely to be that while "no breakthrough is in the works... efforts must be made to tackle what is becoming an increasingly complicated crisis". Whatever the statements coming out of Lebanon on the possibility of Moussa resuming his mediation efforts, both the majority and opposition camps are keen to receive the secretary-general and work on an exit strategy from the current crisis, says the source. Moussa's final decision, though, is not dependent solely on developments in Lebanon. It will be informed by a wide range of international factors. In Moscow this week for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Serge Lavrov, Moussa heard clear confirmation that there is a growing international awareness -- despite some American reluctance -- that a deal should emerge that will spare Damascus the serious political consequences that might come with accusations being leveled by the international tribunal of Syrian involvement in the killing of Hariri and other Lebanese political figures. Saudi Arabia, which is preparing to chair the next Arab summit in March, is also keen to see a breakthrough from the current deadlock and avoid Lebanon dominating the summit. Riyadh has its own problems with the growing political demands of its Shia minority and is fast losing patience with the way the political crisis in Lebanon is being portrayed as an essentially Shia versus Sunni conflict. During the upcoming summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, the composition and mandate of the international tribunal is expected to be high on the agenda. Resolving issues related to the tribunal, though, is but one part of a complicated jigsaw puzzle that also includes the make-up of the Lebanese government and the questions arising from an early legislative and presidential poll. Moussa may or may not go to Lebanon -- it is still unclear. If he does decide to go, though, say observers, the visit will be almost immediate. "The Arab League and the secretary-general are not going to give up on Lebanon," Youssef said at the conclusion of his trip to Beirut yesterday morning. What will happen if and when he arrives in Lebanon will depend on the assurances he can muster from regional and international protagonists, especially Syria, which means he may well be traveling to Beirut via Damascus. (see p.6)
