Hesham Youssef, senior Arab League official and envoy to Lebanon, tells Dina Ezzat that the Arabs are not giving up on Lebanese reconciliation The failure of a high-level Arab delegation to convince conflicting Lebanese forces to enter into national dialogue on key sticking issues was acknowledged over the weekend by none other than the head of delegation, Arab League Secretary- General Amr Moussa, who said at a press conference in Beirut that consensus had been achieved on the need to resume national Lebanese dialogue but that none would be forthcoming, at least for now. Moussa was speaking at the end of a tough four-day diplomatic mission undertaken with representatives from Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Tunis. The delegation's meetings in Beirut included all top political figures in the conflicting majority and opposition camps as well as many independent political figures. Meetings were conducted in line with a resolution adopted by an extraordinary Arab foreign ministers meeting on 15 June. "According to the text of this very resolution, the mission of this delegation is not about one visit to Lebanon. It is a mission in progress; a daunting mission that we have to undertake," said Hesham Youssef of the Arab delegation to Lebanon. Youssef is Moussa's chief of staff. He was also Moussa's envoy to Lebanon earlier this year as part of an earlier diplomatic mission that the Arab League undertook to contain a complicated and worsening state of political polarisation in Lebanon between the majority that controls the government and the opposition, jointly led by a coalition of Hizbullah along with other Muslim and Christian political factions in Lebanon. During a 45-minute interview with Al-Ahram Weekly, Youssef was frequently interrupted by telephone calls from Lebanon. His answers were fairly abrupt but they conveyed a clear message: the Arab League mission would steer clear of the blame game. "We are not going to get into finger-pointing. I am serious. We are not going to make public statements to blame one party or political force," Youssef told one caller. According to Youssef, public blaming is a recipe for blowing up the entire mission. "The situation is already very tense. If we started saying that we blame this or that political group then we divert attention from the main objective and make a complicated situation even more difficult to resolve," he said. Nonetheless, Youssef added, certain facts might be made public were things to get out of control and if the Arab League feels it necessary to do so. Youssef also added that despite frustrations felt by the Arab delegation over its failure to convince Lebanon's key political forces to act, nobody in the delegation was expecting an easy breakthrough. "However, we were hoping that after four days of tough, profound and serious talks, the political leaders would agree to delegate envoys to participate in candid dialogue over key sticking points. It did not happen." This is attributed to failure to get all concerned parties to agree on details of an agenda for talks. The majority camp wanted a three-point agenda: the composition of a national unity government; the future of presidential elections due to take place in a few months; and security policies and measures required to prevent further instability and to end a series of assassinations that has been targeting the majority camp since the killing of former prime minister Rafik El-Hariri in February 2005. The majority says it is willing to give the opposition a little over a third of the seats in government -- a blocking vote number -- provided that the opposition does not pull out its ministers leading to a fall of the government. This remains a source of disagreement. The majority argues that given the total freeze imposed on parliament by the opposition and a similar suspension by President Emile Lahoud of government decisions, it is unwilling to share power in a national unity government unless the opposition gives guarantees of "constructive participation". The opposition is not saying it out loud, but it an open secret that Lahoud is considering the establishment of a parallel government compatible with the binding concept of collective rule and the co-existence of all sects that he and opposition forces find lacking in the government of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora. Moreover, the majority camp wants the opposition to provide guarantees that when the due date for the selection of a new president hits this autumn the opposition will not boycott the parliament session that would vote a new president into office and may not be able to convene in their absence. For its part, the opposition insists that "a reconciliatory candidate" runs and that the presidential file should be taken up by a new national unity government. To make things even more complicated, the majority camp and the opposition interpret differently the text of the Lebanese constitution on the way parliament should convene to consider presidential candidates. Meanwhile, the opposition argues that security measures advocated by the majority camp should be taken up by a future national unity government, even if the mandate of this government were inevitably go end by late November when the current Lebanese president's term in office ends. In sum, instead of the three-point agenda suggested by the majority camp, the opposition is concerned with one item only: the composition of a national unity government where its participation would include a blocking third. According to the opposition, whereas last winter opposition assent to an international tribunal to investigate the assassination of Hariri was sought in return for a little over one-third share in a national unity government, the opposition argues that given that the government got its demand of setting out an international tribunal passed, through the intervention of the UN Security Council, it is now time to establish a national unity government. Further, the opposition believes it has the right to demand assurances on the composition of a national unity government without having to pass through a bargaining process on Lebanon's next presidential elections. Youssef admits that priorities between the two sides may be conflicting, but he warns that the longer conflict persists the more likely Lebanon is to hit a chain of serious complications. "We do not want a situation where the election of a new president is more divisive, or that Lebanon is left without a president; and we certainly cannot afford a parallel government," Youssef said. "Nobody really wants this situation to continue. I think there is a growing awareness that the longer the crisis lasts the higher the political toll it will take on the Lebanese people," Youssef added. While recognising the influence of many concerned regional and international players, Youssef doesn't believe the Lebanese crisis can be resolved by these forces alone: "This is a simplistic approach towards a real complicated matter," he said. In the analysis of Youssef, the current political battle in Lebanon is not only about seats in government, it is also about the future of Lebanon as an Arab country in a region that may be redrawn according to conflicting regional and international agendas and interests. In this light, Youssef refuses what he qualifies as "a naïve" view suggesting that the Lebanese conflict is in fact one between "moderates", as represented by the majority camp supported by the West, and "radicals", as represented by the opposition and supported by Syria and Iran. "There are moderate and radical forces within both camps," he said. In Lebanon, Youssef argues, there is still considerable overlap between the position of different political forces, and "we are going to work to expand it. There are no guarantees that we will succeed. As a matter of fact, we may fail. But one would not want to imagine the consequences of this failure," he said. Youssef is cautious of making any reference to what many analysts have warned of as the coming civil war in Lebanon. He said: "A civil war is not exactly what we confront, because political divisions cut through the many religious and sect- based groups. But an explosion cannot be ruled out." He hastens to add: "This is exactly what we want to avoid."
