Thailand's political gridlock has become the focus of many political observers in Asia and around the world. The reasons are myriad. Thailand is an economic powerhouse of Southeast Asia, and political developments there impact neighbouring countries. The more political instability rocks Thailand, the sooner the phenomenon is likely to happen in other Southeast nations. The spread of political instability in the relatively prosperous Southeast Asia would have a domino effect in other Asian nations, and the world economy. It is against this backdrop that Thailand's Army Chief General Prayuth Chan-Ocha usurped control of the government in a judicial — as opposed to a strictly military — coup d'état. He explained that the Thai army was forced to restore law and order to the troubled Southeast Asian kingdom. Former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, cabinet members and anti-government protest leaders were put in detention for the past two weeks to give them “time to think,” Colonel Weerachon, the Thai army spokesman told reporters in the Thai capital Bangkok. Thailand's relatively poor northeast provinces have traditionally been the strongholds of the deposed prime minister's populist pro-poor policies. So the military is banking on the urban elite and the monarchy for support. Colonel Weerachon Sukondhapatipak, deputy army spokesman, added that all the detained politicians were being well treated and that the aim of the military was to achieve a political compromise. Yet, the end result is that the military has ratcheted the political commotion up to an unprecedented stage. “This is in a bid for everybody who is involved in the conflict to calm down,” the army chief explained. “We don't intend to limit their freedom, but it is to relieve the pressure.” The world cannot afford to let one of the world's most impressive economic successes decline into a state of chaos. And this latest declaration of martial law could soon become yet another of Thailand's fully-fledged coups. The country is a constitutional monarchy, but King Bhumibol Adulyadej, literally “The strength of the land,” has unsurprisingly sided with the military and with the so-called “Yellow shirts”, the anti-Thaksin, pro-monarchists. Yet this is not a classical coup because it is the country's Constitutional Court, and not the military per se, that has ousted prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, the sister — and the Yellows claim, the lackey — of Thaksin. The situation is fluid and unpredictable. And it is a reflection of the political interventionist role of the military in many nations, not just Thailand, but in Arab Spring nations as well. Small wonder then that United States sanctions would be invoked by an implicit military seizure of power, and army takeover. And that is precisely why the Constitutional Court decided to take the initiative of ousting the prime minister. The uniting feature of Thailand's rival political groups is that they are prepared to make some tough choices. Thailand's urban elite is determined to stop the rural poor from controlling the corridors of power in Bangkok. A country like Thailand, an economic powerhouse of Southeast Asia, cannot be run as an oppressive dictatorship. Prominent opposition figures in parts of the country where the Red shirts hold sway have gone into hiding. This will only exacerbate the political crisis. The imposition of curfews, even in Bangkok, where the Yellow shirts appear to be popular cannot impose the rule of law and order for long. General Prayuth and his junta and their civilian proxies need the support of all the people of Thailand, and not just the urban elite. The Southeast Asian region itself is volatile at the moment with political instability in Myanmar to the west of Thailand and anti-Chinese rioting in the east. Tourism is one of the mainstays of Thailand's economy. Bangkok's racy night life is renowned the world over and the easing of the curfew imposed by the military will surely buoy up the economy of the bustling city of 10 million. The Japanese Chamber of Commerce has expressed “significant concern” about the political situation in the Southeast Asian nation. Japan, after all, is the main foreign direct investor in Thailand. Meanwhile, anti-government protesters have in recent months blocked streets in Bangkok, plunging the country into a political crisis. The generals should pause and test the willingness of the Red shirts to engage seriously in a joint effort with the Yellow shirts to reduce tensions. Even now that the military have stepped in winning the trust of the Red shirts is possible. The Yellow shirt protesters were demanding that the government step down over allegations of corruption and ties to Yingluck's billionaire brother, exiled ex-leader, the redoubtable Thaksin Shinawatra, who was himself deposed in a 2006 military coup. So even as the Thai military tout their decisiveness, they must look to fulfill the aspirations and high hopes of the Thai masses on steady and sustained economic growth. Thai politics is complex, but the economic growth cannot be compromised. The Reds, ironically the mostly poor, rural supporters of ousted prime minister, the exiled tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra, are pitted against the pro-monarchist Yellows. Thailand's urban elite is staunchly pro-Yellow. Therefore, it is a question of royalist Yellows versus rural Reds. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay urged Thailand to “ensure respect for human rights and a prompt restoration of the rule of law in the country”. Human rights organisations concur. “The regime must immediately clarify a legal basis for this move and where they are. No one should be detained on the basis of their peaceful political opinions or affiliations,” said Richard Bennett, Asia-Pacific director for Amnesty International. The junta has denied that it imposed a block on Facebook, even as local and international human rights groups protested the curtailment of individual rights in Thailand. Thailand's military rulers must now use the legitimacy they enjoy, granted to them by the country's Constitutional Court to deal with the most pressing issues Thailand faces. The restoration of order in a dangerously divided country politically is an urgent priority. Peace will create the best chance so far to resolve the political crisis. Nevertheless, a successful outcome depends on the army's ability to keep the Red shirts and the Yellow shirts apart. In short, the Thai military must not be tempted to forcibly have the conservative royalist establishment monopolise power in the country.
