Presidential elections in Lebanon got off to a heated start this week when Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea announced his candidacy for the race. Geagea's announcement triggered diverse reactions. His allies in the Future Movement greeted it cautiously, neither expressing approval nor disapproval. His bid puts the movement in an awkward position as, on the one hand, he is its closest and strongest Christian ally while, on the other, he is one of the most controversial Christian leaders. For one, he is strongly opposed by the Hizbullah-led 8 March Alliance that has hinted that it supports its ally, General Michel Aoun, the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, the largest Christian political bloc in the Lebanese parliament. But more problematic than Hizbullah's and Aoun's opposition is Geagae's implication in the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rashid Karami in 1987. It was no surprise, therefore, that the harshest reaction would come from the late prime minister's nephew, Faisal Karami, who described Geagae's nomination announcement as “a black day in the history of Lebanon”. Geagae's party was quick to counter the attack. Lebanese Forces parliamentary deputy Fady Karam lashed out against Faisal Karami as a supporter of the “one of the biggest criminals against humanity in modern history, ‘chemical man' Bashar Al-Assad”. Addressing Faisal Karami, Karam added: “You long for the return of the joint Syrian-Lebanese security order that fabricated cases against major sovereign leaders such as Samir Geagae simply because they opposed the occupation of Lebanon. One of those [fabricated] cases was the assassination of the late prime minister Rashid Karami.” With regard to reactions in Christian circles, Geagae describes himself as the strongest candidate on the basis of opinion polls and student and syndicate elections. However, Maronite leaders, as has historically been the case, find it hard to agree on a leader. MP Emile Rahme of the Free and Unified Lebanon bloc, which is headed by the Christian MP Suleiman Frangieh, charged that in nominating himself for the presidency, Geagae sought to obstruct the nomination of the head of the Change and Reform bloc, General Aoun, and to sew disarray in the 14 March coalition. Rahme added that Aoun and Frangieh were the candidates that were most widely accepted by all parties. Even within the 14 March coalition, Geagae does not have the support of other Christian forces. Although the Kataeb Party, one of the 14 March Coalition members and, indeed, the founding party of the Lebanese Forces headed by Geagae, has not nominated its leader Amin Gemayel, it is well known that the party believes that Gemayel would be a strong candidate in view of his personal career and his family's political history. In addition, the Kataeb political line is not as inclined to confrontational stances against Hizbullah and its allies that would make its leader Gemayel more acceptable to all parties. Although observers generally agree that international circumstances are currently favourable to the election of a new president, there are concerns that internal disputes and, specifically disputes between Maronite leaders, will court outside meddling. The contest between these leaders over the highest Christian political post in Lebanon has customarily been brutal. Many rivals have been as relentless in their campaigns to advance themselves as they have been ruthless in their attempts to undermine the prospects of their adversaries. Such battles inevitably put the Maronite Church in a predicament. On the one hand, it is forced to appear neutral (although it has been known to issue hints such as recent leaks to the effect that the Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai favours General Aoun). On the other, it is keen to ensure that the only office of head-of-state in the Middle East reserved for Christians is not left vacant and that the person who fills this post is strong and an influential representative of Christians, and not just a compromise figure among domestic, regional and international powers. Nevertheless, as central as the church is in the lives of Lebanon's Maronite community, in the political arena it does not carry that much weight in the contests between political leaders whose supporters will not shrink from lashing out against the church if it openly differs with those leaders.
