Plans for a third bloc to stand for election in one of Lebanon's most hotly contested areas have fuelled angry debate, observes Lucy Fielder in Beirut Election season starts early in Lebanon, and speculation about a bloc of independents -- if such a word can be used in this divided, sectarian country -- has prompted the usual mudslinging. At the centre of the debate is a plan announced by veteran MP and former minister Michel Murr to form a list of independents to stand in the 9 June general elections in the hotly contested Christian area of Metn, Mount Lebanon. But the outspoken leader of the Christian opposition Free Patriotic Movement, Michel Aoun, has criticised Murr's proposed bloc as being part of the rival 14 March anti-Syrian movement in disguise. He and other critics say the main aim is to chip away at his vote. Adding fuel to the fire is the widespread sense that the "centrists" will be supported by President Michel Suleiman, brought to power in May last year as a consensus figure under the Doha agreement that ended a protracted political crisis. A Maronite Christian, as all Lebanese presidents are, Suleiman's weight could tip the balance in the Christian areas. They are the only parts of Lebanon that are likely to witness fierce competition, or indeed, any at all, given that the Shia and Sunni areas are seen as largely backing Hizbullah/Amal and Saad Al-Hariri's Future Movement respectively. Aoun's strategic alliance with the Syrian and Iranian-backed Shia Hizbullah guerrilla group has given him a powerful position within the former opposition but lost him some support among his traditional Christian base. He has criticised Murr's plan, saying neutral candidates are "tasteless and colourless". The former opposition is known in Lebanon as 8 March, named, like 14 March, after the date of a massive demonstration in 2005 after the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri, which pitched Lebanon into turmoil. Murr said in a statement there was considerable support for independents in the Christian heartlands and that his list would be announced in late February. He said his bloc was neither centrist nor with the president, fuelling the belief that his main target was disaffected Aounists. "Would this bloc enjoy a taste or a colour if it aimed at bringing a country to a presidential vacuum or chaos?" he asked, a barb directed at Aoun and his allies. American University of Beirut political science professor Karim Makdisi said the proposed bloc was an attempt to reach those voters who wanted to see a Christian resurgence in power but did not necessarily want to align with the Shia-dominated 8 March or Sunni-led anti- Syrian movement. "It's an attempt by 14 March to put a block on Aoun's progress and to try to change the struggle from being 'Aoun versus the weaker 14 March Christians' to 'Aoun versus the president'," he said, adding that if elections were held tomorrow Aoun would likely have a slim majority. Aoun won 72 per cent of the Christian vote overall in the 2005 elections, and his candidate narrowly triumphed over former president and Phalange leader Amin Gemayel in a Metn by-election in July 2007. Gemayel has backed the emergence of a "neutral" bloc. The latest incarnation of Lebanon's oft- changed electoral law, adopted under the Doha agreement, creates tiny electoral districts, called qada. Lebanon's geography has become largely segregated along sectarian lines, particularly since the 1975-1990 civil war, which benefits sectarian leaders, whose constituencies are relatively undiluted, and puts national, policy- based parties at a disadvantage. "The 14 March team continues with its efforts aimed at setting up a Christian coalition to confront General Michel Aoun in the Christian areas," Ibrahim Al-Amin, chairman of the board of directors, wrote in the independent, pro- opposition newspaper Al-Akhbar last week. "That is starting with re-launching [Murr's] MTV television channel, to the campaign aimed at distributing aid vouchers in all the Christian districts, to convincing Michel Murr to lead an uprising of independents against Aoun and under the flag of the president, to convincing Samir Geagea, the head of the Lebanese Forces, to limit his appearances so that he will not antagonise more Christians and thus complicate the work of the 'new independents'." MTV's chairman of the board, Gabriel Murr (Michel's brother), announced last week the station would be back on air after a seven-year break on 31 March, but denied the timing was linked to the elections. It was officially closed down in 2002 for breaking electoral laws banning televised electioneering. Rosana Bou Monsef, a commentator for independent, anti-Syrian newspaper An-Nahar, told Al-Ahram Weekly it was still too early to speculate about the purposes or membership of the neutral bloc, adding that veteran MP Murr has always backed the presidency, regardless of the political position of the incumbent. "We're only hearing this from Michel Murr so far," she said. "He wants to create a bloc and I'm sure he'll bring people with him. But it's too early to know more -- we'll see new things and new alliances a week before the election." Suleiman's backing for the bloc was also unclear, she said. "I don't believe Suleiman is going to support or seek any parliamentary bloc in his name, because if he does that and his candidate loses they will say 'the president lost'. He knows very well he's only been president for six months and it's dangerous to make a battle already." Talk of a rift between Suleiman and the opposition, despite his good ties with Hizbullah's backer Syria, has already begun. The 14 March movement analysts have accused their rivals of pressuring Suleiman to attend the Doha summit on the Gaza crisis, which was boycotted by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, allies of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora and the Future movement. Should the president throw his weight behind a bloc seen as aimed at deflating Aoun's popularity, such a rift seems likely. But Makdisi said it was unclear how Suleiman would play it and therefore too early to speak of a split. The 8 March movement is sending signals to remind him how he attained his position and that his role is that of a neutral statesman, he said. The 14 March movement and their international backers, he said, appeared to be trying to turn his head the other way. Neither side can be seen to be openly twisting Suleiman's arm, but attempts to pull him into one camp or another are likely to increase as the election approaches. "I can certainly see mounting concern on the part of the opposition. We'll see over the next couple of months whether he'll crack under this kind of pressure or not," Makdisi said.
