The assassination of Pierre Gemayel in Lebanon this week has set off ripples in already disturbed waters, reports Lucy Fielder from Beirut As Lebanon prepares for today's burial of Lebanese Minister of Industry Pierre Gemayel observers expect the funeral to be turned into a show of force by the "14th March" alliance. Leaders of the alliance called for a mass turnout at the funeral, scheduled to proceed today from his home village of Bikfaya, where his body was transported after he was assassinated on Tuesday, to his burial place in Beirut. Gunmen shot the Christian minister at close range after forcing his car to stop as he drove through the Jdeideh district in eastern Beirut. Immediately after the murder, the victim's father, former President Amin Gemayel, called for calm. But tyres burned outside the Phalange Party headquarters in central Beirut after the killing, and a late-night meeting produced a statement tinged with fury. In a clear reference to Hizbullah and its opposition allies, the statement said Gemayel's killers "are of the same species as those that threatened to topple the cabinet in an attempt to flee the international tribunal". "Our patience has run short," the statement warned. "The whole world will hear the true voice of Lebanon in the next few days." Pierre Gemayel was a leading member of the Maronite Phalange Party founded by his grandfather. It played a leading role in the 1975-90 civil war. His uncle, Bashir Gemayel, was killed in 1982 after being elected president and establishing official ties with Israel. Beirut was on edge on Tuesday night. There was a heavy security presence on otherwise deserted streets in the city centre. The latest in a chain of assassinations could not have come at a worse time. Swathes of southern Lebanon lie in ruins after the summer conflict between Israel and Hizbullah which brought sectarian and political divisions to boiling point. Syrian- backed Hizbullah and its allies, including popular Christian leader Michel Aoun, were preparing to take to the streets in peaceful demonstrations aimed at toppling the US-backed government of Prime Minister Fouad Al-Seniora, which they accuse of mishandling, even collaborating with, Israel's bombing of Lebanon. Gemayel is the fifth public figure to be killed in 18 months, starting with former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri in February 2005. Syria has been fingered by many in Lebanon and abroad for being behind the assassinations, and has been implicated in the early stages of the ongoing international investigation into Al-Hariri's death. Inevitably, the finger is being pointed at Syria again. Damascus denies any involvement, with Syrian officials pointing out they have nothing to gain from the death. Syria's Lebanese allies have had to call off their planned demonstrations, for the time being at least. Internationally, the state that is subject to US sanctions and viewed by many Western leaders as a pariah, appeared to be on the brink of rehabilitation. On the day of Gemayel's death Syria and Iraq restored diplomatic ties severed more than two decades ago and the Baker Commission, due to report next month, was widely expected to recommend Washington enter into dialogue with Damascus. But if Bashir Al-Assad appeared to be coming in from the cold, US President George Bush appeared to narrow that window of opportunity in his reaction to Gemayel's killing. He did not blame Damascus outright, but said Washington supported Lebanon's efforts to "defend their democracy against attempts by Syria, Iran and allies to foment instability and violence in that important country". US Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton also pointed the finger at Syria, saying the killing underlined the importance of setting up the tribunal into Al-Hariri's killing. Gemayel was gunned down as the UN Security Council considered the plan, approved in an extraordinary Lebanese cabinet session last week following the resignation of Shia ministers. Samir Geagea, a "14th March" leader, warned last Friday that ministers could be assassinated in an attempt to bring down the government. With the industry minister's killing and the six resignations this month the usually 24-member cabinet is now missing seven members. Two less ministers and it will lack a quorum. Syrian political analyst Imad Shueibi told Al-Jazeera satellite channel that only the "14th March" group benefited from the assassination. "All the operations target Syria, target Hizbullah, target the powers that stand confronting American and French plans in Lebanon," he said. The "14th March" anti-Syrian coalition says Hizbullah's real aim is to stymie the international court while the Shia group points out that it approved the court in principle. Experts remain divided on whether the court, approved by a cabinet on which there were no Shia representatives, is constitutional. Prime Minister Al-Seniora said the Lebanese would not let the killers decide their country's fate. "This attack only increases our determination to see the creation of the international tribunal" to try suspects in the 2005 murder of former Premier Rafik Al-Hariri, he said. Saad Al-Hariri, told of the assassination during a press conference, levelled a barely veiled accusation at Syria shortly afterwards in an interview with CNN. "The 'Cedar Revolution' is under attack," he said, using a US-coined term for the massive protests last year that forced Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon. "Today one of our main believers in a free democratic Lebanon has been killed. We believe the hand of Syria is all over the place." Response from the "8th March" pro-Syrian camp was muted. Hizbullah promptly condemned the killing. "The nature of the killing, the method, the timing and the place are all issues which spark suspicion," a statement said. "There is no doubt that those who carried out the crime want to push Lebanon into chaos and civil war." The group's leader, El-Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, promised in a televised address on Sunday that a campaign of demonstrations against the "government of [US Ambassador to Beirut Jeffrey] Feltman" was imminent. He called the government "unconstitutional and illegitimate" and called for either a unity government or early elections. "Hizbullah will not change its position vis-à-vis the government but it will change its strategy, it will have to delay any planned demonstrations," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, an expert on Hizbullah and fellow at the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Centre in Beirut. "There will be one of two scenarios now. The situation could further deteriorate... or this might jolt each side back to a negotiated agreement."
