Egypt's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.77% in the third quarter of its fiscal year (FY) 2024/25, the highest quarterly rate in three years, driven by strong export performance and a rebound in manufacturing, the planning ministry announced. The figure represents a significant acceleration from the 2.2% growth recorded in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year. The performance pushed the average growth for the first nine months of FY 2024/25 to 4.2%, up from 2.4% during the corresponding period a year earlier. The ministry attributed the growth to the government's national structural reform programme, which it said was helping to maintain macroeconomic stability and enhance economic competitiveness. The expansion came despite a continued decline in revenue from the Suez Canal, linked to geopolitical tensions, and a contraction in the extractive industries. Rania Al-Mashat, Egyptian Minister of Planning, Economic Development, and International Cooperation, said the results reflected the impact of government policy. "The higher-than-expected GDP growth was driven by strong performance in key sectors—most notably non-oil manufacturing, tourism, and telecommunications—reflecting the tangible impact of Egypt's macroeconomic policies and structural reform agenda," Al-Mashat said. "This momentum builds on the solid recovery observed since the start of the fiscal year and aligns with the government's broader strategy to promote private sector–led growth and advance the transition toward a more competitive, export-oriented economy focused on tradable goods and services." The minister also highlighted the increasing role of the private sector, with private investment growing by 24.2% and outpacing public investment for the third consecutive quarter. "As a result, private investments accounted for 62.8% of total investments (excluding inventory), underscoring the impact of policies designed to empower the private sector and elevate its role as a key engine of economic growth," Al-Mashat added. SECTOR PERFORMANCE Growth was driven by strong performance in several key sectors. The non-oil manufacturing sector expanded by 16.03% in the third quarter, a sharp turnaround from a contraction of around 4% in the same period a year earlier. The sector was the largest contributor to GDP growth, adding 1.9 percentage points to the overall rate. This was reflected in the industrial production index, excluding crude oil and petroleum products, which grew by 16.03%. Output rose significantly in industries including motor vehicles (93%), ready-made garments (58%), beverages (34%), paper (20%), and textiles (17%). This growth was linked to a 12.7% annual increase in exports of finished goods during the quarter. The tourism sector, represented by hotels and restaurants, grew by 23%, with tourist arrivals reaching 4m and tourist nights increasing to 41m in the quarter. Other sectors posting growth included telecommunications (14.7%), financial intermediation (17.34%), insurance (7.7%), electricity (5.76%), and construction (3.13%). However, some key economic activities contracted. Activity in the Suez Canal fell by 23.1% due to disruptions from regional geopolitical tensions, though this was a slower rate of decline than the 51.6% contraction seen in the same quarter of the previous year. The extractive industries sector shrank by 10.38%, led by declines in petroleum activity (-9.52%) and natural gas activity (-20.5%). The ministry said it expected new discoveries and field development to support future production. EXPENDITURE AND INVESTMENT On the expenditure side, net exports were a significant driver, contributing approximately 2.7 percentage points to GDPgrowth. Total exports of goods and services rose by 54.4%, outpacing an 18.7% increase in imports. While private investment accelerated by 24.2% at constant prices, it was not enough to offset a 45.6% contraction in public investment. Consequently, the overall contribution of investment to GDP growth was negative, trimming the headline rate by about 2.44 percentage points. The share of public investment in the total fell to 37.2%, which the ministry said reflected a strategic shift to create more space for the private sector. Supporting data, such as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), pointed to a recovery in private sector performance. The PMI registered 50.7 in early 2025, its highest in 50 months, before settling at 50.1 in February and 49.2 in March.
FUTURE OUTLOOK Based on the performance in the first nine months, the ministry stated that real GDP growth for the full 2024/2025 fiscal year is on track to surpass its initial 4% target. Looking ahead, Egypt's parliament in June 2025 approved the economic plan for FY 2025/26, which projects a growth rate of 4.5% and caps public investments at EGP 1.154 trillion. The plan allocates approximately 47% of treasury-funded public investments to health, education, and social services. The government said its decision to maintain the 4.5% growth target for FY 2025/26 was reinforced by its assessment that the market impact of the war between Israel and Iran, which it dated to June 13, 2025, had so far been "relatively contained".
