Egypt's progress toward macroeconomic stability, fuelled by substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) and the recent approval of a $820m loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is creating significant growth opportunities in Cairo's real estate market through the last quarter of the year, reveals JLL's Cairo Market Dynamics Overview for Q3 2024. In the retail sector, developers are introducing new entertainment concepts in an effort to boost footfall and spending levels. As market conditions stabilise, a new subsidy programme and several strategic infrastructure projects are bolstering confidence in the hospitality sector.
Ayman Sami, Country Head, JLL Egypt, said, "The early signs of macroeconomic stability in Egypt are beginning to underpin demand and performance in Cairo's real estate market, with investors and occupiers looking to leverage on the more positive economic backdrop. More so, improvements in hard infrastructure, such as the new monorail and investment and subsidy programs, are expected to add to the mid to long term fundamentals of the office and hospitality sectors.
Egypt's macroeconomic stability is fuelling a real estate transformation, creating a fertile ground for real estate investment and accelerating the shift towards a more modern and sophisticated market. We are seeing significant growth opportunities emerge, particularly in Cairo, driven by strong underlying demand and innovative development strategies. New projects and ambitious infrastructure initiatives are further reshaping the landscape, promising sustained growth across the capital city's real estate ecosystem in Q4 2024."
Surge in demand and prices in residential sector
The delivery of nearly 6,000 units in the third quarter, primarily in East Cairo and its expansion areas, has seen Cairo's total residential stock rise to around 288,000 units. Minimal project announcements took place in Cairo's residential sector as most new launches focused on the North Coast and Red Sea cities during their peak seasons. Meanwhile, an additional 7,000 units are slated for completion in Q4, with some handovers deferred to H1 2025. During Q3, rental rates and sales prices rose significantly, surging by 115% and 146% respectively in 6th of October and 124% and 148% in New Cairo, compared to the same period last year. This upward trajectory is expected to further boost the rental market outlook, particularly in the short term.
Demand for Grade A offices surge
Responding to growing demand for premium office space, Q3 2024 saw the addition of nearly 53,000 sq. m. of Grade A office space with the completion of Podium 2 and Headquarter MG. This brings Cairo's total office stock to over 2.1 million sq. m. GLA. Approximately 162,000 sq. m. of GLA is scheduled for completion in Q4, and upcoming business parks including One Ninety and Golden Gate in New Cairo, will further address current supply gaps in the market.
Cairo's favourable operational costs and an EGP 85bn boost to the ICT sector are expected to sustain strong demand for offices from the rapidly growing outsourcing market. Despite completion delays in the Central Business District (CBD) of the New Administrative Capital (NAC), the office sector's rental performance improved in Q3, driven by improved economic conditions, reduced vacancy rates (9%), and a positive PMI reading.
Novel retail concepts to boost growth
New neighbourhood and community malls added nearly 28,000 sq. m. of GLA in Q3, increasing Cairo's total retail stock to around 3.1 million sq. m. A further expansion of nearly 180,000 sq. m. is anticipated in Q4.
In terms of rental performance, average rates in both primary and secondary malls rose by approximately 6% and 14%, respectively, in Q3 compared to the same period last year. Rents in secondary malls outperformed the primary market due to their accessibility and convenience, and the citywide vacancy rate averaged at 7%. In contrast to Cairo, the North Coast's retail sector thrived, fuelled by high spending levels and strong tourist arrivals.
With inflation continuing to outpace average consumer purchasing power, landlords are differentiating their offerings with the integration of novel entertainment concepts to attract younger demographics and stimulate both foot traffic and expenditure.
Tourism initiatives accelerate hospitality sector
Egypt's tourism and hospitality sectors demonstrated resilience in Q3, welcoming over 8 million visitors in the first seven months of 2024, with coastal cities performing strongly during peak season. Cairo's hospitality market recorded a five-percentage point (pp) decline in occupancy during this period, with the average daily rate (ADR) decreasing by approximately 3% and revenue per available room (RevPAR) falling by roughly 11% on an annual basis. The outlook remains positive for Q4, when around 1,200 keys will be added to Cairo's existing hotel stock of 26,700 keys.
