In choosing permanent war over peace, Israel locked itself into a losing battle in the long-term, writes Amin Howeidi* Six decades or so have passed since Israel surfaced in our midst, created on a land we used to call ours. Things have changed since then. So let's look at where things stand. A better understanding of the changes that happened over the elapsing decades may help us minimise our losses and maximise our gains. I will start with a simple question: What is conflict? Conflict is the use of all the resources of the state -- political, economic, cultural and military -- to achieve state objectives. In other words, military force is only one of several means of conflict. A country should manage its conflicts through a strategy that may or may not involve the use of force. When the Arab-Israeli conflict started out, neither side recognised the other. We used to refer to a "so-called" Israel, and Palestine and the Palestinians got hardly any mention. With time, Israeli's existence became recognised, at least by some. Egypt and Jordan struck peace agreements with Israel. Syria is interested in doing the same. There is even an Arab initiative promising wholesale Arab recognition of Israel in return for its withdrawal to the borders of 1967. Israel, for its part, has recognised the inevitability of a Palestinian state, a far cry from the time it used to oppose the creation of any other state between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River. The US administration now says it wants to see an independent, contiguous and viable Palestinian state come into life. A conflict over existence has turned into one over borders. We mustn't underestimate this change. Time was that those who talked to the Israelis were called traitors. Now dialogue between Arabs and Israelis is taking place all the time. Visits between Arab and Israeli officials make the headlines. And many agree that with some political flexibility everything is possible. This is not the only way in which the conflict has shifted gear. In the past, Israel used to take the military conflict outside its borders. Now fighting tends to take place inside Israel. In the last war, Arab missiles hit Israeli towns, including Haifa. This development was noted in the report of the Winograd Commission, which was formed by the Israeli government to investigate the causes of Israel's loss in last year's war against Hizbullah. Obviously, technological sophistication is not the only decisive element in a conflict -- not anymore at least. What matters most is the way people use technology and conduct politics. One of the reasons Israel was created in this region was to cut off the western flank of the Arab world from the eastern flank. Another reason was to drain the resources of Arab countries through wars. But Israel is not above being drained. Israel relies on the US not only in its daily life but also in matters of survival, which is a very risky thing. Recently, the US auditor- general urged US officials to pressure Israel to seek peace with its neighbours, noting that as things stand a future US president may be tempted to discontinue aid to Israel. According to conventional wisdom, Israel is a nuclear power. I have disputed that point in my book, The Arab-Israeli Conflict: Between Conventional Deterrence and Nuclear Deterrence. But even if Israel has nuclear capabilities, it is obvious that this hasn't done it much good. Israel's combat capabilities have been declining in comparison with the Arabs. Just as Judge Agranat had to investigate flaws in Israel's performance in the 1973 War, the Winograd Commission had to do the same several decades later. The Lebanon war was so mismanaged that even Kadima turned against Ehud Olmert, calling for the prime minister's resignation. Israel is heading towards peace, albeit slowly and reluctantly. But it is worried about demography. Population growth in the Palestinian territories is something Israel cannot stomach. Israel is also aware that the more the conflict drags on the more hatred is generated outside its borders. So how long will Israel remain faithful to a policy of permanent war? Israel has been using war to create a new political status quo in the region, but how far is it ready to go? Israel faces a real dilemma. The blows it receives from the Palestinian resistance are not something Israel can put up with forever. It is therefore important for these blows to continue until Israel finds it in its heart to sign acceptable peace agreements. The bottom line is that Israel's obstinacy is weakening it. Israel's reliance on military force is a deadly mistake, for no one can live by the sword alone forever. * The writer is former defence minister and chief of General Intelligence.
