Fear of Hizbullah's arms is the strongest bargaining chip the Arabs now have against Israel. It should not be wasted, writes Amin Howeidi* UN Security Council Resolution 1701 brought the war between Israel and Hizbullah to an end, some 33 days after it started. That resolution recognised Hizbullah's status as a fighting force, if only by calling for its disarmament. For the time being, Hizbullah remains a cohesive militia in possession of 20,000 rockets. No wonder, Israel wants it decimated. I see some Arabs going along with Israel's request to disarm Hizbullah. My advice for them is to think again. There is no sense in giving up something so effective without a quid pro quo. To say the least, 1701 is a bit muddled. It mentions Israel's withdrawal but it is not clear whether the Lebanese army would be deployed in its place or UNIFIL. And the UN resolution has no particular way of getting Hizbullah out of the south. As things stand, the implementation of 1701 could turn Lebanon into an international protectorate, a country that cannot receive weaponry from abroad. Resolution 1701 gives Israel a sense of security, it is true, but it is a false sense of security, for the recent bout of fighting proves that all of Israel, and not just its northern parts, is within missile range. The strategic balance has shifted for Israel. In case you haven't noticed, it has changed for the Arabs too. Granted, the resistance cannot throw Israel into the sea. After all, the combined force of Arab armies failed to do so for years. But the resistance has been effective and that's what matters. It matters that Israel, with its regular army, has been unable to defeat a tiny militia. It matters that Hizbullah has proved itself a mighty opponent in battle. Hizbullah has inflicted pain on Israel, and when it comes to politics, pain goes a long way. You may have noticed that Israeli politicians have stopped talking of "Greater Israel". You may have noticed that instead of rejecting a two-state solution, the Israelis are now quite willing to accept such a solution. That's a major shift. When settlers in northern Israel had to flee their homes to escape the rain of Hizbullah's rockets, power shifted. I want us to use this shift for political ends. Let's be cold-headed for a bit now. We've got an asset in our hands, and we mustn't sell it short. We need to bargain, but first let's hold on to our bargaining chips. The Israelis want security and so do we. But we cannot grant them absolute security. We must make them settle for reciprocal security. The Israelis want peace and so do we. But in return for peace, we want land. The Israelis should be made to feel that our capacity for fighting outstrips our eagerness for negotiations. Our leaders used to say that what was taken by force can only be regained by force. Let's put this slogan to the test. Let's demand something in return for the power we have in our hands. Let's not give up our fighting assets, for we'll perhaps need to use them once again. Instead of talking about disarming people on our side, we have to think of how to use our military assets in a politically productive manner. The recent war took place on two fronts. Israel and Hizbullah exchanged fire on the military front. In the UN Security Council meanwhile, diplomats were launching their own offensive. At one point, the US delegation fought hard to give Israel time. The Israelis wanted to eliminate Hizbullah and the Americans wanted them to get the job done. Ever since, the Americans have been trying to achieve by diplomacy what the Israelis failed to achieve by war. Who were the "good guys" and who were the "bad guys" in this war? The Americans made up their mind early. Once again, the world's "Great Satan" came to the help of the region's "Small Satan". Israel wanted to win by a knockout and the Americans did everything to help it. But so far it has failed. Hizbullah has stopped Israel from winning, and we still have time to turn its military achievement into a political triumph. * The writer is former Egyptian minister of defence and chief of General Intelligence.
