Lebanon's opposing factions appear as far as ever from compromise before the presidential elections, Lucy Fielder reports Diplomatic and internal efforts intensified over the past week to try to stave off a presidential crisis that could result in a power vacuum, military government, or worst of all, two parallel leaderships that would recall the darkest days of Lebanon's civil war. Parliament should convene on 25 September to appoint a president to replace Emile Lahoud, whose term was extended under Syrian pressure three years ago. But Lebanon's US- and Saudi- backed government and the Hizbullah-led opposition are as polarised as at any point during the political crisis that has plagued the country since Lahoud stayed on, followed shortly by Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination. The power struggle escalated late last year when six Shia ministers resigned from the government. Under the constitution, two-thirds of MPs' votes are required, and if a quorum is not reached, a simple majority will do. However, the parliamentary majority, which is led by Saad Al-Hariri and holds 69 of 128 seats, has threatened to elect a president by simple majority in the first instance. Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri has proposed that the opposition (of which he is a part) drop its insistence on a national unity government provided the two sides agree on a consensus candidate before parliament meets. Berri's proposal met mixed reactions. The 14 March parliamentary majority, which now leads the government, has issued conflicting statements, with some MPs such as presidential candidate Boutros Harb welcoming the plan. But 14 March issued a statement that appeared to reject the need for a two-thirds quorum, central to the idea of a consensus candidate. "Let us go back to a roundtable without guns, pretexts, or intimidation," the statement on the movement's website said. "Let us put our political disagreements aside and leave them outside the dialogue chamber. Let's not say we want the elections [on the basis] of a half-plus-one vote and let them [the opposition] not block the elections under the pretext of a two-thirds quorum." Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, fierce critics of Syria and the opposition they say is doing Damascus's bidding, have both criticised the proposal. "The opposition is seeking to move forward with its goals of a coup via the presidential elections," Jumblatt wrote in a weekly editorial for his Progressive Socialist Party's Al-Anbaa. He warned of a return to Syrian "tutelage" and warned that a consensus president would be anti-democracy and might try to block the international court's investigation into the killing of Rafik Al-Hariri and other UN Security Council resolutions. Berri pointed out the court was in the hands of the United Nations, which established it under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. At the heart of this latest struggle lie Hizbullah's weapons, as the mention of UN resolutions suggests. Washington has been pushing stridently for the Iranian-backed Shia guerrillas' disarmament since its ally Israel bombarded Lebanon last summer to try to eradicate them. "Why is the United States even interested in these elections in the first place? They want a candidate who would serve their agenda, which is neutralising the resistance," said Amal Saad- Ghorayeb, of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Centre in Beirut. "So suddenly we're hearing all this talk about UN resolutions, which ties the presidency to a specific agenda." Terje Roed-Larsen, the UN's Middle East envoy, drew Berri's criticism last week when he said the president should be elected by simple majority and enact all UN resolutions, particularly 1559, which calls for Hizbullah's disarmament. Saad-Ghorayeb said the lukewarm 14 March response to an initiative heralded by many others as a breakthrough suggests knowledge or anticipation of a US escalation and possible strike against Iran, Syria or both. This was heralded, she said, by Israel's airstrikes on Syria last week, Arab silence about the attack and strident comments and leaks from the US administration and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who warned last week that the world should be prepared for war with Iran over its alleged nuclear ambitions. Ibrahim Al-Amine wrote in the pro-opposition daily Al-Akhbar that leading US allies in Lebanon were wagering on the "coming war". "They exaggerate when they talk about facts and figures concerning the new war which will target Syria first and which will bear results in a matter of days, not weeks. This war, according to them, will cause the collapse of the political, military, and civilian front that is connected to the Syrian regime. "These figures clarify to their close circles that this will not take long and thus there is no need to hurry any internal settlement or regional compromise..." he wrote. The opposition, Saad-Ghorayeb said, never expected Washington's allies to respond otherwise to Berri's proposal. "It appears to have been an attempt to throw the ball in their court and show the world who scuppered the deal, to show they've gone out of their way to compromise," she said. Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir has assumed a leading role in efforts to ward off disaster, heading to the Vatican and meeting Roed-Larsen as well as the pope. A meeting with Berri is expected. Despite usually being close to the 14 March politicians, Sfeir has insisted on the need for a two-thirds quorum to elect the president, perhaps because he is loath to see the credibility of the Maronite presidency undermined in the power struggle. "I will not name any candidates, but it is vital for the next president not to be aligned to any group and to be transparent and trustworthy," Sfeir told journalists this week. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner returned to Beirut on 13 September, but no breakthrough emerged. Saad-Ghorayeb said France, once the colonial ruler of Lebanon and closely tied to the Maronite sect for centuries, remained primarily concerned about the Christians in its active diplomacy. This could explain, she said, the occasional policy differences between Washington, which has moved closer to the Sunni Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora and Al-Hariri, and French ones. An Ipsos poll this week found that 60.5 per cent of Lebanese believe the president does not have to be from either side.
