"Consensus" was the word on almost all lips this week, but there's been nothing to show for it in the presidential race yet, reports Lucy Fielder Lebanese leaders held a flurry of meetings about the presidential race this week, but despite positive signals it remains unclear whether the two opposing factions are prepared to compromise. Parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri announced the dialogue efforts last week after MPs failed to elect a president, raising hopes that there was still time for the polarised country to stave off civil war or a constitutional vacuum. Parliament is scheduled to reconvene on 23 October, to give MPs time to agree a consensus candidate. A replacement for President Emile Lahoud, whose term was extended by a constitutional amendment and Syrian pressure three years ago, must be found by 24 November. Otherwise, it is feared, Lahoud may appoint a transitional government, prompting the 14 March ruling bloc to set up a rival one. Or the movement could go ahead and choose its own president, prompting the opposition to do the same. Either way, rival leaderships are widely seen as a slippery slope to civil war. Hizbullah MPs boycotted last week's session by staying in the corridors in order to prevent the attendance of the necessary two- thirds quorum. It argues that a candidate needs to be agreed beforehand to respect Lebanon's delicate sectarian balance. Lebanon has been locked in a tug-of-war since the Syrians withdrew in 2005 between the US and Saudi-backed 14 March and their 8 March opponents who fear that Lebanon's former overlords in Damascus will be replaced by Western ones. Over the past week, Berri has lived up to his reputation as a wily mediator who thrives in times of crisis. He has met another key national mediator, Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir, as well as US Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman and, most significantly, anti- Syrian ruling bloc leader Saad Al-Hariri. Berri said his meeting with Al-Hariri was held in a "mood of conciliation" and many Lebanese media reports have expressed optimism that a resolution was in the offing. Most 14 March MPs and leaders now seem to concur with the opposition's view that a two-thirds quorum must be present for the first vote, though controversy remains over whether a simple majority suffices if that fails and a second vote is called. Leading constitutional experts, some close to 14 March, have dismissed this week the claims of some in the anti-Syrian movement that the failed session counted as the first vote, enabling the movement to go ahead and pick a candidate from its ranks. But given the avowed mood of conciliation and Al-Hariri's public optimism, it was unclear why he is scheduled to visit Washington to meet US President George W Bush later this week. "Visiting the US at this time doesn't look very much like a conciliatory or a confidence-building measure," said Amal Saad- Ghorayeb of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Centre in Beirut. "It is clearly a way of Bush solidifying his support for 14 March." Some opposition figures privately voice fears that the rounds of conciliatory meetings and political Iftar meals may be an elaborate exercise in time-wasting. And if no solution is found by 10 days before Lahoud's term ends, the speaker cannot refuse to open parliament's doors, experts say, in which case 14 March MPs have threatened to hold a vote, quorum or no quorum. Al-Hariri and his Saudi backers want a solution, the opposition figures believe. A fragmented or warring Lebanon would weaken the Sunnis' current political dominance in the country, carved out since the end of the civil war and Al-Hariri's assassination. If true, the Hariri-Saudi alliance may be able to tease relative moderation from the United States, which has sought to embolden the Sunnis throughout the region to counterbalance arch foe Iran. But they can have little sway over Washington if it decides to insist on a candidate from within 14 March. And there are media reports of a split within the Saudi monarchy concerning the kingdom's policy towards Syria and relations with Washington and Iran, Saad-Ghorayeb said. Christian Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt have made statements that veered still further towards the hardline margin of 14 March. Both have stuck longer than their colleagues to the position that a simple majority of MPs is adequate to elect a president. The ruling bloc controls 68 of parliament's 128 seats, so that would effectively enable them to elect a head of state unilaterally. "They [Geagea and Jumblatt] feel they're sinking and that a deal might be cut at their expense," Saad-Ghorayeb said. Jumblatt, who has become one of Washington's firmest allies in Lebanon, wrote an open letter to world leaders this week calling for protection to help Lebanese and their leaders "overcome the threat of successive assassinations which aim to destroy Lebanon". Christian Phalangist MP Antoine Ghanem was assassinated just days before last week's abortive vote, the fourth 14 March deputy to be killed since a massive explosion killed Rafik Al-Hariri in February 2005 and plunged Lebanon into crisis. "Only you, Lebanon's friends, can protect us. We are confident of your continued support for our striving for freedom by ensuring the election of a new president," Jumblatt wrote. The UN Security Council urged last week that the presidential election be held freely, fairly and on time. Berri chastised the council for interference in an internal matter. The US position remains pivotal, and centres upon disarming Hizbullah and undermining its allies Iran and Syria. US Ambassador to Lebanon Jeffrey Feltman reiterated his focus this week on the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which was adopted after a three-year extension to Lahoud's term in late 2004 under Syrian influence and calls for the disarmament of all militias in Lebanon, for which read Hizbullah. "We hope the rest of its clauses are implemented, most important of which is electing a new president made in Lebanon in accordance with the Lebanese constitution and without foreign interference, and for militias to surrender their weapons," Feltman said. The US deems Hizbullah a terror organisation and has hotly pursued its disarmament since the failure of Israel's war on the guerrillas last summer. Washington does not appear to be in the mood for compromise in Lebanon, and especially on disarming Hizbullah's fighters, but the answers lie elsewhere in the region. "It's pretty much 50/50 what the US will decide, and very much linked to what they want to do on Iran," Saad-Ghorayeb said. Lebanon's fate may hinge on whether that decision is war or peace.
