As efforts to resolve Lebanon's intractable political crisis stumble again, fears of a coming war are growing, Lucy Fielder warns Yet again, Amr Moussa left Lebanon this week empty- handed; yet again, the presidential election was delayed. Detailed discussions of the various formulas for a future cabinet -- that is, if a president is elected after an already three-month-old vacuum -- have become wearily familiar to readers of the Lebanese press. Will it be 10+10+10 or 13+10+7? One equation is agreed on by all -- delay plus frustration plus sectarian incitement equals clashes. Street- fights have been erupting in the capital and other areas for weeks now, and it is unclear how many more the country can tolerate. Rancour between the pro-Western government of Fouad Al-Siniora and the opposition dominated by Hizbullah and Christian leader Michel Aoun has leeched on to the regional stage, poisoning relations before the Arab Summit scheduled to be held in Damascus at the end of March and throwing it into jeopardy. Saudi Arabia has led the charge in blaming Syria for the deadlock, with relations between the two at their lowest ebb since Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's accusation that those Arab states who did not support Hizbullah's resistance against Israel in July 2006 were "half men". The opposition wants a veto-wielding third of cabinet seats to increase Aoun's representation and block any strategic government decision, particularly one Hizbullah perceives as targeting its weapons. The government accuses the opposition of doing the bidding of Syria, whom it accuses of a string of assassinations that have rocked the fragile country. Despite valiant optimism from some quarters, talk of the imminent demise of Moussa's Arab initiative has grown louder, with US Iraq envoy David Satterfield casting scorn on it and scepticism growing. Rhetoric on both sides has grown ever harsher, with the battle lines clearly drawn. In a speech to commemorate one week since the funeral of Hizbullah military commander Imad Mughniyah, and to honour previous fallen leaders, Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said Satterfield's comment was evidence there was no will to resolve Lebanon's political crisis. Nasrallah accused his Lebanese opponents of hedging their bets before an imminent war. "I regret to tell you that some parties in the pro-government group have again started to reassure their cadres and leadership that an imminent war will eliminate Hizbullah and the opposition forces," Nasrallah said. Those sides banked on the destruction of the Shia military and political group, which is backed by Syria and Iran, in Israel's destructive 2006 bombardment, he said. "They mentioned April, May and June. Therefore, they are not in a hurry and are not ready for any political settlement, regardless of the concessions made by the opposition. Their American master announced his rejection of the Arab initiative but they made no comment," Nasrallah told the crowds in the southern suburbs. Nasrallah's "open war" statement, in which he threw down the gauntlet to Israel after the Mughniyah assassination mid-month, met a strident response this week by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, considered a hawk of the 14 March anti-Syrian ruling team. Jumblatt blamed Syria for the assassination of the commander, and told Nasrallah to watch his back in case his allies in Damascus were planning to dispose of his services too. Hizbullah blames Israel for the killing. With this breakdown of trust, little excitement was generated by the two meetings Moussa managed to assemble of the quartet -- himself, powerful Sunni leader and head of the parliamentary majority Saad Al-Hariri, former president Amin Gemayel, with Aoun representing the opposition. The fourth such session achieved only one result: talk of more talks. This was hailed as a sort of progress. "It's just time-wasting until a war happens," said Amal Saad- Ghorayeb, a Hizbullah expert at the Carnegie Endowment Middle East Centre in Beirut. Hizbullah is widely expected to retaliate against Israel following Mughniyah's killing, and many people fear that will be a pretext for a new war. "If there is another war it will be regional this time. I would say we're even going to see backers of elements of 14 March supporting Israel," Saad-Ghorayeb said. She cited travel warnings issued by Saudi Arabia, then Bahrain and Kuwait to their citizens against coming to Lebanon as a possible sign of wider Arab knowledge that security would deteriorate further in Lebanon. Pro-opposition press reports over the past week have suggested Arab intelligence involvement in stirring up some of the clashes in Beirut. Saudi Arabia is a main backer of Al-Hariri and the "14 March" ruling movement. The leftist paper As-Safir wrote this week that old issues came back to haunt Moussa's discussions to resolve the crisis; for example, sudden disagreement on the least controversial of the Arab initiative's three parts, reforming the sectarian and controversial election law, strongly suggesting that "there is a foreign decision not to produce an internal settlement in Lebanon". The coming weeks of negotiation will determine whether the Arab summit will go ahead, or instead that there will be a swift decline in relations between pro-US Arab states led by Saudi Arabia and those who reject what they see as US hegemonic plans for the region, most notably Syria. There is growing talk of a no-show in Syria at the end of March, with Saudi Arabian and Egyptian heads of state expected not to attend in the absence of a Lebanese president. Pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud stepped down on 23 November, but without a successor. The vote has now been delayed for the 15th time until 11 March. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Lebanese Premier Siniora both said over the past week that the summit's success hinged on the election of a president in Lebanon, whilst holding Syria responsible for the absence of a deal. "It's clearly all about isolating Syria," Saad-Ghorayeb said. "There's a regional war coming and things are going to change dramatically." A meeting at the weekend between Mubarak and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia appeared calculated to up the pressure on Syria and show a united front. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Muallim has requested several audiences with the Saudi king to invite him to the summit, but was refused.
