Despite the current economic crisis, Gamal Mubarak dotted the Is on a clear government message: no return on the policies of liberalisation, Dina Ezzat reports Next Wednesday President Hosni Mubarak is expected to announce a package of economic moves that the government will adopt with the aim of alleviating -- even if partially -- the acute hardships that the vast majority of Egyptians are facing. According to many decision-making quarters, the Policies Committee of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) included, the presidential decrees will be announced as Mubarak addresses the nation to mark Labour Day, 1 May. Aisha Abdel-Hadi, minister of labour and manpower, promised "good news". Mubarak is set to authorise a considerable raise of close to 25 per cent of average gross salaries. This annual raise is usually set at around 15 per cent. The average salary for an Egyptian civil servant is below $300 per month. World Bank estimates that close to 45 per cent of the Egyptian population live on less than $2 a day. The raise, according to statements made this week by Rachid Mohamed Rachid, minister of trade and industry, would be coupled with a set of market monitoring measures to ensure that essential food crops would be sufficiently available for the local market, even at the expense of export quotas. Rachid also promised more efficient consumer rights monitoring by his ministry and relevant government bodies. Moreover, government officials say that the current volume of $12 billion of foreign direct investment is set to increase considerably during the coming months. Mubarak's trip this week to France and Germany, two main trading partners of Egypt, was officially qualified as an effort to maximise investments and trade exchange. However, judging by statements offered in the run-up to this much anticipated presidential announcement, the president is unlikely to adopt any major re-conceptualisation of the nation's economic policies -- accredited by the government for securing a seven per cent GDP growth while criticised in some quarters for aggressively widening the gap between the limited rich and the vast impoverished segments of society. On Sunday evening, Gamal Mubarak, assistant secretary-general of the NDP and chairman of its Policies Committee, spoke on Egyptian TV Channel 1 offering a full analysis of the current economic crisis and conveying a mix of news that some viewed as good and others considered bad. In his two-hour interview on the state-run TV flagship programme "Weghet Nazar" (Point of View) Gamal Mubarak said that the good news is that the NDP government has managed to allocate necessary funds to secure a considerable raise for civil servants and public sector workers. This raise is automatically adopted by the private sector. Gamal Mubarak also promised that the government is not planning any reduction in the short term of subsidies allocated for basic food commodities, bread included. "This is a responsibility the government -- which is the majority party [NDP] government -- is undertaking and will continue to undertake," he said. According to Gamal Mubarak, the government has already adopted some administrative measures to contain the bread crisis that has hit the nation for the past few months and prompted much social anger. "The bread crisis is fairly resolved in most of the nation. And it was never a nationwide problem. But we are aware that there are still signs of the problem to address and we are working on those," he said. There is inevitably bad news, however. Gamal Mubarak said explicitly and more than once that demands made by the political opposition and civil society quarters for the reconsideration of privatisation-based economic policies that many blame for the current crisis will not be met. The NDP government, Gamal Mubarak said repeatedly, will stand its course. It is this course, he argued, that has enabled the government to provide sufficient resources for subsidies, infrastructure and debt service, especially during the past three years. "I know that some have been accusing this government of being oriented only to the interests of businessmen. It has been a harsh attack, and we were even accused of selling the country," he said. Rejecting the accusations, Gamal Mubarak said that the government is faced with two main challenges: the first is confronting the economic difficulties that stem mostly from a world economic crisis; the second is to confront what he qualified as the attempts of some political opponents to twist current economic difficulties to serve their interests. "It is at time of crisis that there is a rise in the tide of emotional discourse. This is a big challenge that we are set to confront," he said. It would be years, he added candidly, before Egypt would witness considerable living standard enhancements or enough job opportunities to accommodate the suffering of the wide low- income sector of society. Unlike statements made by other top NDP figures, the statements of Gamal Mubarak did not go unnoticed. Individuals and commentators chimed in approvingly, or otherwise. According to individuals approached from different socio-economic backgrounds, the statements of Gamal Mubarak were essentially a message to those protesting against the government's economic and social policies that little change if any is in the pipeline. Moreover, it was also a covert declaration that a much anticipated government reshuffle might be on the backburner for a while. Some viewed Gamal Mubarak's message positively, arguing that it indicates a sense of confidence on the part of the ruling party and its government. Many, however, expressed scepticism, suggesting that the NDP and its government are being stubborn in the face of unmistakable public unease over prevailing economic policies and their social and political impact. Throughout the week, commentators set off to interpret Gamal Mubarak's message. Pro- government commentators, who are mostly NDP members or would-be members, were long on praise for the message conveyed by the party's assistant secretary-general. For them, Gamal Mubarak put the current crisis within a wider context of global economic crisis -- something that members of the government, some argued, have failed miserably to do. For a considerable number of other commentators, however, Gamal Mubarak's statements were a direct attempt to fudge the main issue at stake: the failure of the government to pursue safe economic policies, and worse -- as many insisted -- its inability to accommodate public frustration and anger. The statements of Gamal Mubarak, critics insisted, focussed too much on increasing GDP, especially during the past three years, which is contested by some independent economists as artificial while others dispute the method of GDP calculation employed by the government. Further, critics said, Gamal Mubarak could have shown more political sensitivity regarding acknowledging the right of the people to demand changes that will not necessarily re-introduce a public sector-based economy but would rather put the current fast-tracked privatisation process under adequate scrutiny. All are awaiting the speech that President Mubarak will make next Wednesday for further answers about the nation's economic and political future.
