Dina Ezzat examines how a flurry of high-level diplomatic and business contacts may impact a region mired in turmoil and complexities US President George W Bush arrived to the region yesterday for a three-leg tour that starts in Israel on the occasion of its 60th anniversary -- what Arabs and Palestinians call the Nakba, or catastrophe. Bush will then visit Saudi Arabia and end his tour in Sharm El-Sheikh for talks with President Hosni Mubarak and other Middle East leaders on regional developments. In Sharm El-Sheikh, Bush will participate with Mubarak in inaugurating a special Middle East meeting organised by the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the Egyptian government. "Learning from the Future" is the theme of the two-day region-focussed WEF meeting that will host Arab, Western, Iranian, Turkish and Israeli politicians, business leaders and media and culture figures. A special focus is given to futuristic scenarios of how the world might look in 2025 and examines the potential implications of the long- term global trends on the region and its economies. Disturbing regional developments already overshadow the WEF business-oriented meeting: an unending saga of bloodletting and chaos in Iraq; the protracted standoff between Iran and the West and its Middle East allies; looming civil war in Lebanon; inability to make progress towards settling the Arab-Israeli conflict; Somalia appearing increasingly as a failed state; and the risk that Sudan will soon disintegrate territorially. The Middle East is a focal point for global risk due to its many geopolitical tensions, articulated a report recently issued by the WEF under the title "Middle East@Risk". According to this report, increased tensions are likely to affect oil prices, thus endangering energy security and reducing the chances for political progress on all fronts. Arab, other Middle East and Western diplomats acknowledge that the region faces tough times ahead, despite its potentials for prosperity. In the words of one Cairo-based Western diplomat, "confrontations rather than anything else seem to be the fate of this region for at least a few years to come." In their most recent annual issues, the Arab Strategic Report and the Economic Trends Report of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS) underline the risks ahead. According to the reports, of particular concern is the tug-of-war between the so-called forces of "moderation", namely Arab governments with a close association with Washington, and forces of radicalism, namely Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas and certain pro-Iranian forces in Iraq. Prior to his arrival in the region yesterday, President Bush sent a clear message that his administration is committed to supporting so-called forces of moderation. "This US game of playing moderates versus extremists is going to drive this region into many confrontations that it may be too difficult to contain, not to mention their negative impact on already existing problems," commented one senior Arab diplomat. Meanwhile, as the WEF report warns, continued political instability wrests investment away from the region. Along with that, warn the ACPSS reports, will come slow rates of development with grave socio-economic consequences, along with high levels of illiteracy and unemployment and more aggressive struggles for control over natural resources, primarily water and energy. "Current developments in the Middle East herald the beginning of a huge transformation. It will take decades for this region to metamorphose into a stable region that enjoys peaceful relations within and amongst its countries, and with neighbouring countries and blocs," states the 2007 Arab Strategic Report. The pressing question now is, what kind of region will emerge? According to ACPSS senior political commentator Emad Gad, moderates will ultimately win, as Iran will lose its ability and interest to keep up its decades-long confrontation with the West. "Iran knows that it will ultimately have to settle for being a state with nuclear capabilities and not a full nuclear state," Gad said. He added that beyond the tenures of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and President Bush, the current confrontation would start to decline, especially if Bush ends his term without striking Iran. Meanwhile, Gad argued, Hamas has been showing signs of toning down its radicalism. "Now they are talking about a truce with Israel and a state within the borders of 1967." As for Hizbullah, the clock appears to be ticking. "The restrictions that were forced by [the will of the international community] and the Lebanese majority on the movement of Hizbullah in South Lebanon [near the Israeli border] are now set to be maximised," he said. According to Gad, sooner or later, Hizbullah will be significantly if not fully disarmed. And Syria, Gad argued, wouldn't stand alone in the eye of the storm. Moreover, Gad is projecting warmer Arab- Israeli relations, "with or without" a fair and comprehensive settlement to the Arab-Israeli conflict. "We have been seeing closer Arab-Israeli relations over the past two decades, despite growing Israeli intransigence, and we are likely to see more of that in the future as a new generation of Arab leaders come to power," he said. "These leaders know that they will be short on home-front support, and as such they will try to compensate by gaining international support. For this, there will be a price: the wider and smoother integration of Israel into the region, even if no Palestinian state, viable or not, comes to light." Many Middle Eastern and Western diplomats agree. The pronouncements that will issue from the WEF meeting, they argue, are likely to assert this vision. But as some commentators and diplomats warn, nothing is certain in the Middle East -- a region of many uncertainties, contradictions and competing interests. (see p.2)
