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The Russians are coming
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 28 - 04 - 2005

Putin's tour of the Middle East has raised Russia's regional profile. But will it last, asks Dina Ezzat
Russian President Valdimir Putin's proposal, made yesterday in Cairo, to host a conference on the Middle East reawakened old memories of Moscow's involvement in regional affairs.
"We propose that an international conference be convened in Moscow next autumn with the participation of all concerned parties and the Quartet," Putin announced during a joint press conference with President Hosni Mubarak.
The proposal was not immediately dismissed by Israel. Israeli Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mark Regev was quoted by news agencies as saying that Israel did not object to an international conference held under the terms of the roadmap but said much needed to be done first.
The proposal comes amid other indications -- including high level talks and economic agreements -- that Moscow is seeking to regain its one-time high profile presence in the region.
Putin's three-day visit to the Middle East began in Cairo on Tuesday and includes stops in Israel and the Palestinian territories. It is the first visit of a Russian/ Soviet head of state to Egypt since Soviet President Leonid Brezhnev attended the funeral of Gamal Abdel-Nasser in 1970. It is also the first ever visit by a Kremlin chief to Israel and the Palestinian territories.
"The Soviets were always keen on the Middle East. The region was practically their backyard. Today the Russians, under Putin, are trying to regain their presence, if not influence, in the Middle East," says Reda Shehata, a former Egyptian ambassador to Russia.
"I believe that we have to get in direct contact with Arab countries, starting with Egypt," Putin told Al- Ahram 's Editor-in-Chief Ibrahim Nafie in an interview
"We are neighbours with the Arab world. We have to work on strengthening our relations," Putin said during a speech delivered yesterday at the Arab League.
Addressing representatives of the 22 Arab states, Putin joined his host, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, in stressing that it is up to Moscow and Arab capitals to show that their once strong ties are not a thing of the past.
But can Russia build the kind of ties the Soviet Union once had with the Arab world? Unlikely, is the answer offered by many diplomats.
"Russia is an important country," said one diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. "It is a growing player on the international scene and is a nuclear power -- even if not a strong one. But Russia is economically weak and politically ineffective. Only a few days ago [US Secretary of State Condoleezza] Rice was in Moscow lecturing the Russians on democracy."
Many Arab diplomats agree. So entrenched is US hegemony, they argue, that most Arab capitals, including those close to Moscow, are politically and economically dependent on Washington's goodwill.
Nor do the Arab world's most senior officials have much taste for things Russian. "They prefer the US. Going to Washington is the high point of their diplomatic agendas. They buy houses on the West Coast of the US and they have medical treatment in American hospitals," said the diplomat.
There are a few exceptions. Syria recently struck a deal to buy advanced missiles from Russia despite Israeli objections.
"Under Putin Moscow has made its presence felt in this part of the world," argues a Cairo-based Syrian diplomat. Russia, he believes, is still capable of redressing some of the imbalances caused by Washington's flagrant US bias for Israel.
Few other Arab diplomats share the Syrian view. "Moscow, along with other Western capitals, tried to spare the regime of Saddam Hussein from the war. But nobody could stand in the face of the US will. Now Russia is talking about turning a new page with the US over Iraq because it knows it cannot oppose America," says one Cairo-based Iraqi diplomat
Arab and Russian diplomats do, however, agree that Putin has been successful in raising his country's profile in the Middle East, in relation to both the Arab- Israeli file and Iraq.
Along with the proposed conference on the Middle East the Russian president also called for increased international efforts to restore stability in Iraq. For Iraq to move beyond the current chaos, he said, it will need to work towards national reconciliation and an end to the presence of foreign troops. Putin also called on the international community to adopt a more conciliatory position towards Syria which, he argued, is making candid efforts to honour its international commitments.
"The Russian stand on Middle Eastern developments could have a very positive impact" when regional affairs are discussed internationally, believes Arab League Secretary-General Moussa.
Russia may not be able to compete with the US in terms of economic aid and Information Technology but it still, say commentators, has much to offer. The Russian market, points out Shehata, remains a largely unexplored outlet for Arab exports that continue to face restricted access to American and European markets. And Russia can still provide technical military support. Moscow's new and growing relations with NATO, adds Shehata, must be taken into consideration by Arab countries as they review their ties with the Russia.
Putin's visit to Cairo, which ended yesterday, was widely hailed in the Egyptian press as signaling the beginning of a new phase in Egyptian-Russian and Arab-Russian relations. President Mubarak's decision to name an Aswan street after Nicolai Malishev, the Russian architect of the High Dam, was widely interpreted as a symbolic acknowledgment of these renewed ties.
Putin's request that the Arab League consider Russia's ambassador to Cairo as an envoy to the pan- Arab organisation suggests Moscow is determined to pursue closer ties with Arabs. Whether both Russia and Arab countries will be able to maintain the momentum generated by Putin's Middle East tour, though, remains unclear.


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