American forces may now be leaving Iraq, but the country still needs safeguards to protect its stability, sovereignty and national unity, writes Salah Hemeid US President Barack Obama is due to give a key speech on Iraq next week, which is expected to focus on his administration's strategy following the US troop drawdown in the violence-torn country. It is not clear exactly what Obama will tell the American public in what is a long-awaited speech that comes in the wake of the withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraq. However, the speech comes just days before Obama embarks on a campaign to support his party's candidates in the US mid-term elections, which are expected to be dominated by foreign policy issues, especially the administration's handling of Iraq. It is widely expected that Obama will reiterate his commitment to Washington completely withdrawing US forces from Iraq by the end of 2011, a strategy that has come under fire from critics in the United States and Iraq who fear the withdrawal will exacerbate dangerous political deadlock in the country amid a surge in violence. The last US combat forces pulled out of Iraq last week, leaving about 52,000 US troops on the ground for training and assisting Iraqis under the 2008 security agreement signed between the two countries. Obama is facing growing opposition at home to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and with US congressional elections looming in November he feels obliged to respond to voters whose opposition to the Iraq conflict helped sweep him into office thanks to his promises to bring the war to a an end. However, even aside from continuing questions over why the United States invaded and occupied Iraq in the first place, the withdrawal plans have raised further questions about US commitments in Iraq and the Middle East and its role in ensuring stability and security in the country and in the wider region. One major concern is whether Iraq, virtually under US occupation since the 2003 US-led invasion, is ready to take charge of its own security. Other concerns include fears that the exit of US troops from Iraq will create a security vacuum in the country that could spark a broader regional conflict. Such fears have increased after the recent increase of violence in the country and the apparent inability of rival political blocs to form a coalition government after parliamentary elections in March left no clear winner. A series of devastating attacks in Baghdad and other Iraqi cities over recent weeks have left hundreds of people, including many soldiers and policemen, either dead or wounded. It is against this background that US officials are now sending out mixed messages on the future US commitment in Iraq, possibly reflecting uncertainty on US policy towards a country that US forces have now been occupying for seven years or more. On Monday, US Vice-President Joe Biden, appointed by Obama to oversee the implementation of the administration's Iraq policy, noted that a sizable American civilian presence would replace US forces in Iraq. "Drawing down our troops in Iraq does not mean we are disengaging from Iraq. In fact, quite the opposite is true," Biden told the annual convention of the Veterans of Foreign Wars in Indianapolis. A day earlier, top US commander General Ray Odierno said that the US may end up keeping its troops in Iraq well beyond Obama's 2011 withdrawal target. The Iraqi army would probably need American technical assistance for many years to come to defend the country from insurgents, Odierno said. "If that's what we're talking about, potentially we could be there [in Iraq] beyond 2011," he told the news network CNN in an interview on Sunday. Meanwhile, US state department spokesman P J Crowley also said that Washington would keep some 7,000 security contractors in the country, employed by the government of Iraq, in order to assume the duties of the US military, including protecting US personnel from attack and carrying out the training of Iraqi police. Such statements might be intended to reassure the American public ahead of the upcoming US elections, aiming to increase confidence about a war that Obama administration officials still insist the United States has not lost in Iraq. However, Iraq watchers are sceptical about American optimism, warning that the Obama administration is in danger of underestimating the difficulties Iraq faces. One scenario being pointed to is that Iraq could slide back into civil war if there is a political and security vacuum following the US withdrawal. Commentators are pointing to the political stalemate in the country that has created another hurdle to the US goal of achieving stability in Iraq. Even if a new government emerges in the immediate future, it will likely be too weak to steer the country through the whirlpool of the conflicting interests of rival sectarian and ethnic groups, commentators say. The question remains of whether the United States will be able successfully to use its remaining military, political and economic leverage in Iraq in order to lead the country through a peaceful transition as it tries to disentangle itself from the country. President Obama may want to declare job done and quietly slip away, but the US should nevertheless commit itself to a comprehensive strategy for responsible withdrawal consistent with Iraq's security and stability needs and based on defined milestones and a clear timeline. The US should also work to help free Iraqis from the threats of terrorism and sectarian strife that still weigh heavily on the country and assist the country in emerging from national crisis before it withdraws. Such a strategy should aim to help build a united Iraq with its territorial integrity and sovereignty intact, while also helping to achieve national reconciliation. It should uphold a system of participatory and inclusive government to protect and foster democratic government and the effectiveness and accountability of Iraq's political institutions. A key element in the US strategy should be to help to achieve regional security by involving the country's neighbours in efforts to bring peace and stability to Iraq. Obama may want to fulfill his promises to American voters who placed him in the White House. However, he should also explain to the world as a whole the reasons behind the US decision to withdraw from Iraq, leaving the country to face continual uncertainty and possible chaos.
