Arabs are worried Obama's outreach to Iran may bolster its influence in Iraq, writes Salah Hemeid On the Friday after the sixth anniversary of the US invasion of Iraq that toppled the regime of Saddam Hussein, President Barack Obama launched a long awaited diplomatic initiative to deal with one of the most serious foreign policy challenges his administration is facing: Iran's nuclear efforts and its increasing regional ambitions. In a groundbreaking olive branch speech, Obama tried to reach out to Iran, a nation which had been ostracised by his predecessor, George W Bush, largely for its defiance of America's power and for its efforts in turning his "liberation" of Iraq into a quagmire. Obama's message contrasted sharply with the anti-Iran rhetoric of the Bush administration and spoke of a "new day" in which Washington and Tehran could move beyond three decades of distrust and strained relations and build constructive ties. "In this season of new beginnings, I would like to speak clearly to Iran's leaders," Obama said. "My administration is now committed to diplomacy that addresses the full range of issues before us, and to pursuing constructive ties among the United States, Iran and the international community," said Obama, adding emphatically, "this process will not be advanced by threats." As the American leader was making his overture to Iran, Iraqis were marking the sixth anniversary of the US-led invasion of their country with apathy, protest and deadly attacks. Obama didn't even bother to recall the tragedy that had beset Iraq because of that war, as if he feels his conscience is clear after setting August next year as a deadline for withdrawing all US combat troops. But by ignoring the anniversary and sidelining Iraq in his Iranian message, the US president seems not only trying to ignore the legacy of the Bush administration in Iraq, but also its impact on the entire Middle East which is expected to loom large in any strategy review towards Iran. This is why Obama needs to be reminded of some facts about Iraq before he embarks on implementing his "new beginning" with Iran. In the six years since US-led coalition forces invaded Iraq, hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have been killed along with at least 4,258 US troops and some 307 soldiers from other coalition countries. Some 3,000,000 Iraqis are believed to have fled the country to escape the violence while millions others are jobless and homeless. Another stark reminder of the war-ravaged country is the problem of widows, which has become widespread; an estimated one in 11 Iraqi women is now a widow. And as Obama plans to withdraw his troops, violence has renewed, killing more innocent people every day. Just this month, dozens of Iraqis were killed, some in major suicide bombings in Baghdad, Mosul and Babylon. Six years of US occupation and the incapacities of Iraqi leaders have turned Iraq into a "hollowed-out and fatally weakened" nation, as described by the International Crisis Group. Corruption, nepotism, favouritism and mismanagement are so rampant that Iraq now ranks atop among the worst failed nations on any count. All these are signs that without a political solution, Iraq will continue moving towards the abyss of tragic destruction. As efforts of national reconciliation have stalemated, a major threat is seen in growing divisions among rival groups ahead of the US withdrawal. Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki's efforts in reaching out to the government's opponents have been widely seen as no more than just a political show in aide of his Daawa Party ahead of upcoming national elections in December and amidst fierce political battles among parties as US troops prepare to leave. Given the current complicated political environment, it is widely feared that the planned withdrawal of US troops will reverse the little security progress made in recent months, and even worse, drawing Iraq's neighbours into a proxy war. In one way, the positive message Obama sent to Iran was not a surprise. During his election campaign Obama promised to abandon his predecessor's policy and engage Tehran in negotiations over its nuclear programme and support for radical groups in the Middle East, such as Lebanon's Hizbullah and the Palestinian Hamas movement. Yet for Arabs, the key question is whether the new US policy will come at their expense. They remain concerned about the possibility that the US withdrawal from Iraq will create a political and security vacuum that Iran will try to fill, and use to promote extremism and Islamic militancy. Therefore, Obama's message to Iran faces suspicion, if not outright rejection, from key Arab countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who perceive Iran's general posture throughout the Middle East and the Arab Gulf as a security threat. Twice this month Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal warned Iran on meddling in inter-Arab affairs and urged Arabs to unify. "In order to cement Arab reconciliation we need a common vision for issues that concern Arab security, especially the Arab-Israeli struggle and how to deal with the Iranian challenge," he told an Arab foreign ministers meeting. His Egyptian counterpart, Ahmed Abul-Gheit, has repeatedly made similar warnings and accused Iran of trying to monopolise on inter-Arab conflicts to "ease the international pressure on its nuclear programme". While Egypt and Saudi Arabia responded cautiously to Obama's overture to Iran, it was quite clear that they want Washington to advance security in the region, especially with regards to Iran's grandiose regional ambitions. There are increasing signs that Saudi Arabia in particular is trying to confront Iran and isolate it from its local allies, such as Syria, through varied diplomatic overtures, including inter- Arab reconciliation at an upcoming Arab summit in Qatar next week. The centrality of the issue for Egypt was made clear in a series of newspaper editorials and discussions in seminars and workshops recently. In an article in the leading Al-Ahram newspaper, senior member of the ruling National Democratic Party and professor of political science Alieddin Hilal wrote this week that the "Gulf's security is part and parcel of Egypt's security and vice versa." He added: "When we say Egypt is a Gulf country, the evidence of this lies in the size and form of interactions that bind Egypt to the Gulf countries." Part of the Egyptian and Saudi strategy towards Iran is certainly defensive, but the other part is a clear message to the US president that he should be more careful and avoid playing a chess game with the Persian nation at their expense, especially in weaker places like Iraq. To them what Obama should have learned from Bush is that unilateralism is not the best way to correct the mistakes attendant to US policies in the Middle East. The two Arab heavyweights might see Obama's strategy to engage Iran as sensible, but to best secure the region's interests they hope that he will make Arabs his partners and play according to regional rules. One area where he could start is to work with Arabs to protect Iraq and prevent it from falling captive on the Iranian chessboard when his administration starts talking to Iran.
