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Triple whammy
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 03 - 07 - 2008

As Iran faces a new round of sanctions -- and covert operations to undermine its government, Israel threatens to bomb its nuclear facilities, writes Rasha Saad
Iran warned the EU it would lose from its new set of sanctions aiming to pressure Tehran over its sensitive nuclear programme. "If they want to stop doing business, no problem. We have gas and oil resources that the whole world wants to buy from us," said Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Mahdi Safari recently.
EU nations on Monday agreed on new sanctions over Tehran's nuclear programme. Among the measures was the banning of the country's largest bank, Bank Melli, from operating in Europe.
"We are going to withdraw our money and invest it elsewhere," Safari warned. "If we withdraw $100 billion from European banks, that will of course prompt a lack of money and have consequences for the world economy," he added.
The sanctions, adopted by EU ministers, also added 20 individuals and 15 organisations to the union's blacklists imposing visa bans and asset freezes.
The EU move, along with a string of UN sanctions against Iran adopted since 2006, aims at persuading it to suspend its uranium enrichment activities, which the international community fears are part of a nuclear weapons programme.
Tehran insists it wants atomic energy only for the peaceful means of generating electricity for a growing population when fossil fuels eventually run out.
Meanwhile, Britain warned Iran it will suffer growing economic and political isolation if it makes the "wrong choice" and fails to comply with United Nations resolutions on curbing its nuclear programme. British Foreign Secretary David Miliband insisted the diplomatic "dual track" approach, combining increasing sanctions with the prize of economic and political cooperation if Tehran complies, can still succeed. "The diplomatic track has to work -- the alternatives are appalling," Miliband wrote in a commentary in the International Herald Tribune newspaper.
Whether Miliband's alternative was a military strike or not, Israel certainly has been more vocal in threatening to strike Iran, igniting another round of escalating war of words between the two arch-foes.
A former head of Israel's Mossad foreign intelligence agency said in comments published on Sunday that the Jewish state had one year to destroy Iran's nuclear programme or face the risk of coming under nuclear attack. Shabtai Shavit told a London weekly that the "worst-case scenario" was that Tehran would have a nuclear weapon within "somewhere around a year".
Also during the first week of June, Israel carried out a major military exercise that American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Several American officials said the Israeli exercise appeared to be an effort to develop the military's capacity to carry out long-range strikes and to demonstrate the seriousness with which Israel views Iran's nuclear programme.
More than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighters participated in the manoeuvres, which were carried out over the eastern Mediterranean and over Greece, American officials said.
Iranian officials, however, played down the Israeli threats describing it as part of a "psychological war".
Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said he did not believe Israel was in a position to attack his country over its nuclear programme. Mottaki said Israel was still dealing with the consequences of its 2006 war with Hizbullah guerrillas in Lebanon and was also suffering a "crisis of deepening illegitimacy" in the Middle East region. "That's why we do not see the Zionist regime in a situation in which they would want to engage in such adventurism," he said when asked about the possibility of an Israeli attack. "They know full well what the consequences of such an act would be," Mottaki told reporters.
In case of an Israeli attack, Iranian officials maintain, Tehran has all means necessary to deter Israel. The chief of Iran's Revolutionary Guards General Mohamed Ali Jafari warned Israel not to attack it, saying that the Jewish state was well within range of its missiles. "This country [Israel] is completely within the range of the Islamic republic's missiles. Our missile power and capability are such that the Zionist regime -- despite all its abilities -- cannot confront it," Jafari said.
Analysts say any US or Israeli attack on Iran would be limited to air strikes, rather than a full-scale attack requiring US ground forces, which are tied down in Iraq or Afghanistan.
They say Iran could use unconventional tactics, such as deploying small craft to attack ships, or using allies in the area to strike at US or Israeli interests.
US Gulf allies in the region have repeatedly denied any intention to allow the US to use their territories as a launching pad for striking Iran warning that this would be disastrous for the region.
According to analysts, Iran can strike back, in case of an attack, by choking off the strategic Strait of Hormuz -- the vital conduit for about 20-25 per cent of the world's crude oil from Gulf oil producers.
"It is natural that when a country is attacked it uses all of its capabilities against the enemy, and definitely our control of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz would be one of our actions," Jafari said.
Another fear is that oil prices would increase considerably. Already fear of an escalation in the standoff between the West and Iran, the world's fourth largest oil producer, have propped up sky-high oil prices. Crude hit a record level on international markets of $143 a barrel on Friday.
"Certainly if there is fighting, the scope will be extended to oil, meaning its price will increase drastically. This will deter our enemies from taking action against Iran," Jafari insisted.
In a show of defiance, Iran warns it is digging "graves for thousands of enemy soldiers". Mirfeysal Baqerzadeh, a Revolutionary Guards brigadier-general, said. In order to "respect the enemies' dead soldiers" there were plans for volunteers to dig 320,000 graves for them in border areas. This would enable Iran to bury "all of them at the same time", Fars News Agency quoted him as saying. However, in an emergency situation, they would be buried in mass graves.
Meanwhile, there are reports that US congressional leaders agreed late last year to President George W Bush's funding request for a major escalation of covert operations against Iran aimed at destabilising its leadership, according to a report in the New Yorker magazine published online on Sunday.
The article by reporter Seymour Hersh, centres on a highly classified Presidential Finding signed by Bush which by US law must be made known to Democratic and Republican House and Senate leaders and ranking members of the intelligence committees. "The Finding was focused on undermining Iran's nuclear ambitions and trying to undermine the government through regime change," the article said, and involved "working with opposition groups and passing money."
Hersh has written previously about possible administration plans to go to war to stop Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons, including an April 2006 article in the New Yorker that suggested regime change in Iran, whether by diplomatic or military means, was Bush's ultimate goal.
Funding for the covert escalation, for which Bush requested up to $400 million, was approved by congressional leaders, according to the article, citing current and former military, intelligence and congressional sources. Clandestine operations against Iran are not new. US Special Operations Forces have been conducting crossborder operations from southern Iraq since last year, the article said. These have included seizing members of Al-Quds, the commando arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and taking them to Iraq for interrogation, and the pursuit of "high- value targets" in Bush's war on terrorism, who may be captured or killed.
Among groups inside Iran benefiting from US support is the Jundallah, also known as the Iranian People's Resistance Movement, according to former CIA officer Robert Baer. Council on Foreign Relations analyst Vali Nasr described it to Hersh as a vicious organisation suspected of links to Al-Qaeda. US support for the dissident groups could prompt a violent crackdown by Iran, which could give the Bush administration a reason to intervene.
None of the Democratic leaders in Congress would comment on the finding. The White House, which has repeatedly denied preparing for military action against Iran, and the CIA also declined to comment.


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