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Running to the last hour
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 23 - 02 - 2006

But two weeks before a crucial meeting of the IAEA, Iran is engaged in last-minute diplomacy with Europe and Russia to avert possible sanctions, Rasha Saad reports
Two days of Russian-Iranian talks on a Russian proposal to enrich Iranian uranium on its soil ended Tuesday without concrete results. The outcome of the talks, slated to resume today (Thursday) in Tehran, remains controversial. While the head of the Iranian delegation described the nuclear talks in Moscow as "positive and constructive" and thus "we have decided to continue discussions," Russian officials were more cautious, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov saying it was too early to declare the talks a failure.
A main reason why talks in Moscow were fruitless is that both sides clearly had different agenda. While Russia's main concern was pushing Iran to restore a moratorium on uranium enrichment at home, Iranian officials saw no links between the Russian proposals and its nuclear research moratorium. Iranians were more concerned that Russia specifies a timeframe and location in its proposals through the Russian- Iranian joint venture.
"First of all, there is the question of how long it will take -- one year, two years? The second vital factor is the site or sites for enrichment," Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki said.
Mottaki added that Iran was ready for talks, and to find a compromise through considering new ideas. "We are ready to solve the problem by peaceful, diplomatic means within the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)," he said.
He also added that it would be better to reach a compromise before 6 March, when the IAEA will report on the Islamic Republic to the UN Security Council, which has the right to impose sanctions against Iran. "No matter what the compromise may be, research and development [under the Iranian nuclear program] will continue in Iran until the country reaches industrial levels of uranium enrichment, and this will be achieved in the end," Mottaki explained.
The success of the Russian-Iranian talks is seen as crucial to both sides. The Russians, for their part, have played a positive role during Iran's nuclear crisis, essentially as means to secure their own interests. Russia, a veto-wielding member of the UN Security Council with traditionally close ties to Iran, will be the biggest loser if Iran faces sanctions or if its nuclear programme were destroyed. Russia is involved in building nuclear reactors for Iran based on an agreement between the countries in 1992.
Iran, on the other hand, is attaching great weight to talks with Russia. For the Islamic Republic, the deal is seen as a potential compromise and last-ditch chance in the crisis surrounding its nuclear programme, which some countries suspect of being a covert weapons programme. Although Tehran has consistently said it only wants nuclear power for peaceful purposes, the United States, in concert with European nations, has concerns, as enriched uranium is a vital component for in atomic bombs.
The stance of the Iranian delegation was thus seen as determining the future of Iran's nuclear file. If the dispute is not resolved, Iran may face action by the UN Security Council, which can impose diplomatic or economic sanctions. Despite Iranian officials' encouraging words, many political commentators suspect that Iran is discussing the Russian plan merely to gain time.
Sergei Markov, a political analyst closely connected to the Kremlin, told AP that Iran appeared to be deliberately stringing Russia along in the hope of avoiding Security Council action. "Iran will seek to drag out the negotiations, because while they are ongoing, the possibility of referral to the UN Security Council and the possible implementation of economic sanctions are almost zero," he said.
A reason that perhaps explains fears that talks with Russia is just an Iranian manoeuvre, is the precedent that Iran rejected the Russian proposal when first aired in December, insisting on its right to enrich uranium on its soil is a matter of national sovereignty.
Iran has since altered its stance and announced that it would reconsider the Russian proposal earlier this month after it lost the first -- and long drawn out -- diplomatic round that started three years ago with the EU-trio, France, Germany and Britain, and which ended with the failure of talks and the IAEA's decision to refer Iran to the Security Council with a majority of 27 members out of 35.
Apart from reconsidering the Russian proposal, tensions between Iran and the international community escalated following the IAEA decision. Iran responded by removing seals at three nuclear facilities, including a uranium enrichment plant in Natanz, and signalled its intention to resume nuclear research.
A mood of escalated tension seemed to overshadow the visit of an Iranian delegation to Brussels, prior to their visit to Russia, for talks with the Europeans. Observers cited challenging statements from both sides as worrying.
On Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki, holding a press conference with his Belgian counterpart, Karel De Gucht, in Brussels, said uranium enrichment activities are among the "most natural rights" of Iran as a free country. De Gucht, in return, said Iran's nuclear activities are most probably for "military purposes" and that it is possible severe measures will be taken against Tehran.
EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana summed it up when he said that Iran's foreign minister had not brought any new offers to Brussels to help end the Islamic Republic's standoff with the West. "They have repeated their arguments but the substantive position has not changed," he said after talks with Mottaki.
Solana also appeared to rule out accepting continued research in Iran. "I don't think these type of proposals continue to construct confidence, but probably they go in the opposite direction," he said. Solana added that he hoped Tehran would change its position before the head of the IAEA, Mohamed El-Baradei, hands his report to the Security Council.
The poor outcome of the Iranian visits left observers with only one impression this week: that the prospect of UN sanctions is increasing day-by-day.


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