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More talks, more divisions
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 16 - 03 - 2006

With the UN Security Council set to meet in formal session Friday, Russia and China are struggling to keep the Iranian nuclear file in the hands of the IAEA, reports Rasha Saad
Following last week's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meeting which referred Iran to the UN Security Council (UNSC), world powers have failed to reach consensus over the next move in dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue.
The UNSC's five permanent members -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- on Wednesday continued to struggle to come up with a text aimed at restraining Iran's nuclear ambitions without threatening sanctions or other punitive measures. In an informal meeting of all 15 UNSC members on Tuesday, France and Britain distributed "elements" for a statement that would call on Iran to suspend uranium enrichment activities.
Tuesday's meeting came after the permanent members met in several sessions in New York to seek consensus on Iran. The UNSC is scheduled to meet informally today (Thursday) and to meet formally Friday.
Both China and Russia described as "tough" the statement that would express "serious concern" about Iran's nuclear programme. The text also, among other demands, calls on Iran to comply with requirements set out by the IAEA, including restoring a full and sustained moratorium on all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities. Iran is also required "to take the steps needed to begin building confidence in establishing the exclusively peaceful purposes of its nuclear programme."
Representatives of permanent UNSC members report that all agree on objectives but are divided over means; i.e. they are united against Iran developing nuclear weapons but are at odds over which is the best approach to get Iran to comply with the IAEA and stop all enrichment and reprocessing activities and answer IAEA questions about its controversial nuclear programme.
"We found a lot of difficulties [with the Franco-British draft]. Our Russian colleagues made some written suggestions in the same line as our thinking," China's UN Ambassador Wang Guangya said.
Another point of contention is a provision requesting IAEA director, Mohamed El-Baradei, to report back to the UNSC in 14 days on Iranian compliance. "We don't think that setting an artificial deadline will help diplomatic efforts, and we want to maximise all [such] efforts." Guangya added.
Diplomats at the UN said that if the split continues, the Western powers might drop the idea of a UNSC statement, which requires unanimity. Instead they might put a resolution to a vote and force Russia and China to abstain or veto. Any UN sanctions could start with measures such as travel bans on Iranian leaders.
The US, backed by European allies, insist that the UNSC sends a "very strong message" to Tehran over its nuclear activities. The US argues that with the IAEA having reported the Iranian case to the UNSC, it is up to the UNSC to take the lead. Accordingly, Washington has rejected Russia's calls to hold a meeting of world powers to discuss Iran in Vienna instead of New York.
On the other hand, both China and Russia want to keep Iran's file in the IAEA, away from the control of the Security Council. They oppose any probability of UN sanctions against the Islamic Republic, urging world powers to give Iran -- which insists its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes -- the benefit of the doubt. Officials of both countries believe that since IAEA reports stated there was no proof that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, the international community should give more time and space to diplomacy.
UN envoys of Russia and China also said they would like a simple statement acknowledging a report sent to the UNSC last week from the IAEA that formally opened the door to Security Council action. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in a newspaper interview, urged the US and its European allies not to turn their back on the IAEA as a forum for resolving the dispute, saying there was no agreed to strategy for action in the UNSC.
Meanwhile, psychological war between Iran and Western powers is gearing up outside UNSC discussions. US president George Bush issued an executive order on Monday that prolonged US oil and other economic sanctions against Iran in effect since 1995, saying Tehran's policies posed a unique threat. Bush, in a notice to Congress about his executive order, said "the crisis" between the US and Iran, which led to the initial declaration on 15 March 1995, "has not been resolved."
Britain, according to Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, might consider pushing for a weapons embargo on Iran if other efforts to resolve the dispute fail.
For his part, Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei said there was no going back on the country's nuclear programme. "Any retreat will open the way for a series of endless pressures and never-ending back downs. The way [chosen by Iran] is with no return."
The outcome of Iranian-Russian talks held behind closed doors in Moscow Tuesday is unclear. The talks came despite a row between Iran and Russia following the IAEA's meeting last week. Tehran is apparently infuriated that the Russians failed to pressure the US to agree on a new proposal for temporary enrichment activity suspension in return for IAEA recognition of its right to continue research-scale enrichment. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said Sunday that Tehran would no longer consider the Russian proposal. Iran suggested uranium enrichment could occur in Turkey instead.
Lavrov, who insisted that Iran called for Tuesday's talks, criticised Iran's "double signals" and accused the Islamic Republic of adopting an unhelpful attitude during talks. The Russian foreign minister denied accusations that Russia would trade support for the hard line US position on Iran in exchange for Washington's approval for Moscow to join the World Trade Organisation. "We will not exchange what should belong to us by right for anything," Lavrov said.
Previous talks on Russia's Western-backed offer to host Iran's uranium enrichment programme produced no results after Tehran rejected Moscow's demand to suspend uranium activities at home. These talks, which came one week before last week's crucial IAEA meeting, and Iran's failure to strike a deal with the Russians were seen by political analysts as a missed golden opportunity for Tehran to escape referral to the UNSC.
From Tehran's perspective, however, the Russian proposal is at best an interim position, until Iran can enrich uranium on its own soil. It was been presented, however, as a final solution, in lieu of domestic Iranian enrichment. From Tehran's perspective this is unacceptable, for their very argument is that Iran should not be dependent on outside sources of energy.
Karim Sadjadpour, an expert on Iran with the International Crisis Group and based in Tehran, underlines Iranian fears. "If you look at 20th century Iranian history there is good reason to be wary of being too dependent on the Russians, and I think many Iranian officials appreciate this fact. At the moment, however, they are painting themselves in a corner where they are overly reliant on Chinese and Russian goodwill," Sadjadpour told Al-Ahram Weekly.


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