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Playing the Russian card
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 28 - 08 - 2008

The recent visit by Bashar Al-Assad to Russia strengthens Syria's diplomatic hand, writes Bassel Oudat from Damascus
Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has just concluded a two-day visit to Russia during which he had lengthy talks with his Russian counterpart, Dmitri Medvedev.
According to a Syrian presidential statement issued following the talks, the two leaders reviewed regional and international issues. Interestingly, the statement did not mention military cooperation, which many assume was the main purpose of the visit.
The visit coincided with rising tensions between Russia and the West over the crisis in Georgia. Al-Assad jumped at the opportunity to pose as Russia's friend. The Russians were doing the right thing in South Ossetia and the whole thing was Georgia's fault, he said. The US responded by telling Damascus to mind its own business but Syria has already made its point in Moscow. It was the second country, after Belarus, to side with them over Georgia. In return, the Syrians expect military as well as political backing from the Russians, and they haven't been completely disappointed.
By promising to sell weapons to Syria, Moscow is putting the world on notice that it has interests in the Middle East and is willing to stand tough there and elsewhere. This is believed to be, at least partly, an answer to US deployment of its weapons shield in Poland and Ukraine.
It is not only weapons that Damascus is getting from Russia. Al-Assad came back from Moscow with something far more important: recognition that Syria is a major regional player.
Al-Assad and Medvedev discussed the situation in Georgia, the Iranian nuclear crisis, and US missile shield plans in Europe. They also assessed the ongoing indirect talks between Syria and Israel, voicing the hope that they would pave the way for direct talks. Both leaders said that a timetable is needed for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Iraq. They urged a diplomatic solution to the Iranian crisis but stressed the right of Iran to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. They also advised Hamas and Fatah to sort out their differences. It is worth noting that Moscow is proposing a Middle East peace conference later this year.
At the beginning of the visit, the Syrian president said that he would be willing to discuss the deployment of Russian Iskander missiles in Syria. He told the Russian newspaper Commercant that, "weapon purchases are a vital matter". Capitalising on Israel's military support of Georgia, the Syrian president pointed out that Israeli activities in the Caucasus would "encourage other countries... to consolidate their cooperation with Russia."
Russia denied that it had asked Syria to deploy the Iskander missiles, and Damascus said that no such offer was made. Still, Moscow offered to sell the Syrians anti-tank and anti-aircraft missile systems.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia intended to give Syria weapons that "do not violate in any form the strategic balance of power in the region" putting paid to Syrian hopes it might procure sophisticated air defence systems and medium range missiles. Damascus is also believed to have considered offering Moscow the use of Tartus as military base.
Relations with the Soviet Union were at the heart of Syrian foreign policy for almost half a century. Syrian-Soviet diplomatic relations, established in 1944, had grown into steady economic and military cooperation by the mid 1950s. Once Damascus introduced socialist-style policies following the 1963 revolution ties grew even closer, culminating in the signing of the Cooperation, Friendship and Joint Defence Agreement in 1980.
The Soviet Union built more than 80 major projects in Syria, including a dam on the Euphrates, giant power stations, more than 2,000km of railways and 4,000 m of electricity cables. More than 35,000 Syrians received fellowships to study at Soviet universities. The Soviet Union supplied Syria with most of its arms from the mid- 1950s and was its main military and political backer during the 1973 War.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989 things slowed down until Putin came to power and cooperation began in earnest once again. Russian interest in the Syrian economy resurged, and 140 Russian experts are currently working in the country.
Russia now provides technical support to more than 20 Syrian energy companies. Trade bounced from $166 million in 2000 to $1 billion in 2008. And Russia has forgiven Syria nearly 73 per cent of its $13.4 billion debt.
The Syrians need the support of Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council. They need to counter US involvement in the Middle East, and without the Soviet Union the Russian Federation is the next best thing. When it comes to weapons the Syrians never lost hope that the Russians would help them in their time of need. This time, apparently, is now.
Moscow is pleased to oblige. Over the last three years, with Syria isolated and suspected of masterminding Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination, Moscow remained sympathetic. It sent high-level Russian military personnel to Syria on unpublicised visits. And the Russian foreign minister is said to have visited Syria secretly more than once.
Al-Assad's visit to Moscow marked the resumption of strategic ties between the two countries. Syria, which already has ballistic missiles that can reach any point in Israel, is now expected to receive surface- to-surface missiles and short-range surface-to-air missiles.
The Syrians may have wished for more, but the Russians are hedging their bets for now. Moscow is not about to sell sensitive weapons, including the Iskander ballistic missiles with a range of 280km, to the Syrians. Also, Russia is not eager to use Tartus as a military base, but only as a service station for the Russian fleet. For now at least Russia wants to get back some of its assets in the Middle East, but without making waves.
Damascus is not pushing its luck either. It wants to play the Russian card but without antagonising Europe -- its future ally -- or incurring the wrath of the US.


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