Lebanon is going to the polls in three months' time. The election circus, however, is already in full swing, writes Omayma Abdel-Latif from Beirut Hardly a day goes by without a strike or a sit- in today in Lebanon. Last week witnessed a surge in street activities. Teachers, university professors, lorry drivers, fishermen as well as workers took to the street in different parts of the country to protest against the dire economic situation that is claiming a heavy toll on the Lebanese population. But as the country prepares for the 7 June parliamentary elections, the social question hardly features on the electoral platforms of the different political forces contesting the elections. While manifestations of social unrest have become a daily occurrence, Lebanon's political class has turned a deaf ear to the protests. Last week, the Lebanese parliament convened to pass a law that lowers the voter eligibility age to 18 years old. The law was passed. The session was to proceed to address the economic situation. It lost its quorum when MPs slipped away showing little to no interest in addressing one of the most crucial questions to Lebanese citizens. Keeping the Lebanese population under the tight screw of the economic crisis appears intended to leave the population enslaved to an endless patron-client relation. This is the more relevant as the practice of buying votes in Lebanon has become a tradition. Although none of the competing political coalitions (8 March and 14 March) have released their electoral lists as yet, the process is dogged with speculations of old alliances breaking up while new ones are born. Nonetheless, persistent factors are likely to shape the conduct of the elections and consequently their results. The 128 MPs will be elected according to 1960 law; a controversial basis that many civil society figures say is exacerbating the sectarian-based system. A national commission headed by the minister of the interior will monitor the elections and the conduct of candidates. This effort will be aided by hundreds of observers -- both foreigners and nationals. Unlike previous elections, the 2009 elections will take place on one day. Although the law sets a spending limit for candidates, it is unlikely that most will stick to it. As the June elections near, cracks are surfacing in the two main political coalitions (8 March and 14 March), threatening to challenge the unity and cohesion of each camp. Internal disputes over candidates have come out into the open. Attempts to suppress differences in order to appear as unified blocs have failed. Electoral competition will prove crucial in testing this unity. One possibility is that such disputes could end -- or at least minimise -- the bipolar political and social fracture that has taken root in the country and divided it since 2005. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has so far been the most vocal in criticising his allies along with members of his own bloc. He implicitly criticised attempts by Al-Mustaqbal (Future Movement, led by Saad Al-Hariri), the Lebanese Forces and the Nationalist Bloc led by Dori Shamoun over the Maronite seat in his electoral list in Chouf, his most important powerbase. Also there is a simmering conflict between Michel Aoun, head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), and Nabih Berri, head of Amal movement and parliament speaker, over the Maronite seats in Zahrani and Jezzin in the south of Lebanon. Hizbullah is negotiating with Amal movement to make Aoun name the Christian candidates in Jezzin constituency, a Christian-dominated area. In a press conference held in Rabyia Monday, Aoun was keen on downplaying reports of a dispute between him and Berri over the Jezzin seats. And while the picture is still not clear regarding the distribution of seats among 8 March allies, it is more likely that Hizbullah will have to give up some of its seats for its Christian ally. Second, the 2009 elections is a Christian battle par excellence. The war is on between Aoun, on the one hand, and the rest of his Christian rivals, including Samir Geagea of the Lebanese forces, Michael Al-Murr, a former member of the FPM bloc who defected a few months ago and whose strongest base of supporters is in Al-Matn area, north of the country, as well as Al-Kataib, the Christian right-wing Phalanges headed by Amin Gemayel. Further, constituencies like Jbeil, Kesrwan, Al-Matn Al-Shmali, Alkour and Albatroun will witness the fiercest battles between FPM candidates and Lebanese Forces candidates. The results in homogeneously sectarian areas are almost a forgone conclusion. In Beirut, Sunni seats are most likely to go to Al-Mustaqbal while in Tripoli there is expected to be an electoral alliance between Al-Mustaqbal and former Prime Minister Najib Miqati. One stumbling block is whether or not there will be a place for Islamists. Salafis expect representation on Al-Hariri's list. Already posters are visible in Abu Samara neighbourhood in Tripoli in support of Dail Al-Islam Al-Shahal, a Salafi figure that allies with Al-Hariri and whose institutions are funded by Saudi Arabia. Shahal did not yet make clear his intentions, but there is anticipation within the circle of his supporters that he will be included on Al-Hariri's list. Another Salafi figure, Hassan Al-Shahal, expressed his intention to run independently, although he hopes to be included on Miqati's list. Al-Jamaa Al-Islamyia is another Islamist group that seeks an alliance with Al-Mustaqbal, hoping to have three of its candidates -- one in Beirut, one in Tripoli and one in Dennyia -- on Al-Mustaqbal's electoral list. As for the Shia-dominated areas of the south, Hizbullah still secures the support of the majority of Shias. The 2005 result was a vote against UN Resolution 1559. Today, Hizbullah is standing on firmer ground. According to Mohamed Raad, Hizbullah's bloc leader in parliament, the resistance movement is confident that 22 out of 23 seats in the south are secure for the Hizbullah and Amal coalition. Raad insisted the battle would be over the percentage of voters turning out. Overall, the ideological and political polarisation that sharply divided Lebanon during the past four years appears to be losing its edge. Regional rivalry that helped sustain the polarisation is shifting to new grounds. Reconciliation is in progress between Saudi Arabia and Syria, ending years of political rivalry that reflected badly on Lebanon; the international tribunal on Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination has become a reality; the US is seeking dialogue with Tehran, and the West is opening up to Hizbullah; and the sectarian wave that hit the region following the 2003 US invasion of Iraq is calming down: all seem to be also affecting local actors on the Lebanese scene. Departing from the spirit of past years, when hitting at Syria was what the Western-backed 14 March coalition did best, this year that coalition has no harsh words for Syria. Sectarianism, nonetheless, will remain among the constants in Lebanese electoral politics. It is the main tool with which popular enthusiasm is fuelled. Jumblatt expressed his frustration with the ways in which some Christian leaders, in their attempt to mobilise their street, still hold him responsible for crimes against Christian villages in his area of influence during the civil war. For their part, Al-Mustaqbal candidates are expected to invoke the 7 May events during which they accuse Hizbullah of "invading and occupying Beirut", again in order to play on sectarian tensions. Such discourse will, undoubtedly, shape electoral campaigns. To what extent remains to be seen.
