The crisis between Egypt and Hizbullah is not so much about the results as the post-poll outcomes of Lebanon's upcoming elections, writes Omayma Abdel-Latif from Beirut The political crisis between Egypt and the Lebanese resistance movement Hizbullah will not impact the result of Lebanon's upcoming elections, but it will shape post-election arrangements. The timing of the crisis, coming only two months ahead of parliamentary elections due 7 June, suggests that there might have been a link -- at least according to Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Muttaqi. Ground realities differ. The crisis will not have an adverse impact on Hizbullah's prospects. Hizbullah is fielding 11 candidates; one in Beirut, two in Tyr, four in Baalbaak-Hermel, one in Baabda, one in Bint Jbeil, one in Hasbyia-Marjeyoun and one in Nabatiya. The election results in all of the constituencies where Hizbullah is contesting are a forgone conclusion. There is hardly any serious competition against Hizbullah candidates. For example, in Hasbyia-Marjeyoun in South Lebanon there are 12 Shia candidates (including Hizbullah's Ali Fayyad) contesting two seats. Although the list of candidates includes some known figures such as the deputy head of the Lebanese Communist Party, Saadallah Mazraani, and Ahmed Al-Assad, the scion of a feudalist family who is backed by 14 March, their chances of winning against Hizbullah are near non-existent. Although confident of victory, Hizbullah's candidates, nonetheless, urge voters in electoral rallies to show up in big numbers on election day. For Hizbullah, what really matters in this election is voter turnout. Party officials fear voter apathy based on the assumption that the resistance is winning anyway. And if anything, worsening relations with Egypt and the ensuing smear campaign against Hizbullah, along with attempts by 14 March to make use of the crisis, have consolidated party popularity rather than undermined it. Meanwhile, opposition figures from across the spectrum insist that if the opposition wins the parliamentarian majority, it will call for a national unity government and give the blocking third to 14 March forces. On the other hand, 14 March figures, including majority leader Saad Al-Hariri, say they will not be party to any national unity government. 14 March candidates warn that an opposition-led government will face a similar fate as that of the Hamas- led government in Gaza: international isolation and sanctions imposed on Lebanon. A statement by an Egyptian official that Hizbullah ministers will be banned from Egypt only confirms this view. What adds to the complexity are statements by 14 March figures (notably Al-Hariri and Samir Geagea of the Lebanese Forces) that the Doha agreement signed last May and that ended an 18-month period of political turmoil will expire on 8 June and that new arrangements should be sought to form the next government. The agreement has given the opposition, led by Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement, a blocking third in government (11 ministries out of 30). This will no longer hold after the election, according to 14 March leaders. The Egypt-Hizbullah crisis is being viewed in this light. The subtext of the crisis is that any opposition- led government in Lebanon will only worsen Lebanon's relations with countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia. But a close look at the list of tasks that the new government will be asked to address (the social and economic crisis, national dialogue, and a new defence strategy for Lebanon), all prove that only a national unity government can and should prevail. Any attempt by regional powers to undermine such an arrangement will put Lebanon on the brink of the abyss, yet again. Further, 14 March is no longer the united and monolithic bloc it once was. Electoral rivalries, the change of heart made by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, have created deep rifts that will prove hard to heal after the elections. Lebanese Interior Minister Zaid Baroud recently said that the forthcoming elections would not produce any substantive change since many political bargains were concluded in Doha. The upcoming Lebanese legislative elections will be a test not just for state institutions, in their capacity to run free and fair elections, but it will also test the ability of international and regional powers to accept their outcome.
