Jobs come first

What political reform? The concerns of the country's political elite seem to find little echo on the street, according to the findings of a poll conducted by the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. Omayma Abdel-Latif reviews the poll results
The majority of Egyptians are not interested in politics. They are not concerned with issues of political reform, ideological differences within the ruling elite or even cases of corruption. Average Egyptians are worried about the economy, poverty, social injustice and unemployment. They don't see a breakthrough coming in the Middle East peace process. They believe peace with Israel has adversely affected the economy.
Such were the conclusions of the most recent poll conducted by the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS) on Egyptians' attitudes vis-à-vis local and inter-Arab economic activity and integration in the global market. The poll, financed by the European Union, sampled some 1,200 Egyptians from across the economic and professional spectrum. Surveys also targeted specific sectors of the community, sampling 100 persons from each of the public sector, private sector, academia and the media.
The time-frame covered by the poll encompasses a period seething with dramatic developments, both domestically and regionally, making the results of the survey even more significant. The first stage of the poll, in September 2000 pre-dates both the outbreak of the Al-Aqsa Intifada in the occupied territories and last year's parliamentary elections. By the time the second stage of the poll was complete, in February 2001, the nation had also begun to feel the pinch of a sharp economic recession and the Palestinian uprising had been going on for nearly five months.
Abdel-Moneim Said, director of the ACPSS, says that the results of the poll offer an understanding of the domestic scene, both politically and economically, and highlight points of strength and weakness. "The poll is meant to offer an understanding of Egypt beyond the spectacular headline events. This is a proper understanding of Egypt," Said said. More importantly, the poll lays bare the sharp division between the concerns of the country's elite and the vast majority of the population, made up largely of lower and lower-middle class Egyptians who feel marginalised by the state and have grown apathetic to politics.
The two public surveys showed that to average Egyptians, the soaring rate of unemployment is the number one concern. While an actual figure for unemployment remains in dispute -- the cabinet maintains a figure of 1.5 million, while opposition sources cite a figure closer to 6 million -- the problem is a serious one in any event. A report issued by the CIA last March estimated that 20 per cent of the workforce is unemployed and noted that the disproportionately young population adds another 600,000 new job seekers every year. In the first stage of the poll, 41.4 per cent of those questioned described unemployment as their No. 1 concern. In the second stage, conducted six months later, the issue still topped the list with 44.1 per cent. By contrast, only 8 per cent of civil servants and 3.9 per cent of private businessmen cited unemployment as their main concern. The numbers were slightly higher for academics and journalists: 21.8 and 16 per cent respectively.
Another striking result of the poll was that 18 per cent of professionals in the media sector -- supposedly responsible for shaping public opinion -- deemed domestic politics their second most important problem. But in the two public surveys, the second most relevant problem was the economic situation; local politics came in at the bottom of the list. The disparity in priorities reveals the considerable degree of difference between the country's elite and the so-called masses, but it is nonetheless surprising that corruption and local politics ranked so low on the masses' priority list.
"When you read the newspapers, you think people are only concerned with issues of political reform, the change of the constitution and the appointment of a vice president," said the ACPSS's Gamal Abdel-Gawad, who supervised the poll. This poll, however, showed that people have completely different priorities, he noted, attributing the lack of interest in politics and the ideological divide among the population to the "decades of de-politicisation that Egyptian society has undergone at the hands of the ruling elite."
"Part of the concerns of any society is how their country is being run, who makes the political decisions and the legitimacy of those who rule. This seems to be of no concern to most Egyptians and this is due to the fact that the public political domain has turned into a big mystery," Abdel-Gawad said.
Another striking result was that the poll registered positive attitudes towards the current economic situation, despite the crisis. There was near consensus among surveyed members of the general public and government employees that the economic situation is positive on the whole. Some 75 per cent of the public and 77 per cent of government employees believe that the situation is "generally good". The figures were less positive in the private sector, with 57 per cent saying they thought the situation was "good". Abdel-Gawad attributes this contrast to the fact that some industries in the private sector, such as IT, exports and industries related to foreign investment and banking, have been hard hit by the economic recession. Other segments may not have benefited from the country's brief economic boom and, therefore, were hardly touched by the crisis.
The issue of Egypt's membership in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) also sits differently with private professionals and the public at large. Private sector businessmen, journalists and government employees registered negative attitudes to this membership, with only 24 per cent of the sample believing it had a positive impact on the Egyptian economy. These misgivings were attributed to what the ACPSS report called "fear of competition". What was most surprising, however, was the positive attitude of average Egyptians, with 81.3 per cent saying they believed WTO membership had a good impact on the Egyptian economy. The report suggests that this high percentage is probably due to reduced prices for some commodities, which have been felt among average Egyptians.
This ideological gap persists with the issue of privatisation and its impact on daily life. Assessing the prospects of the Egyptian economy, the population as a whole is "optimistic", but the private sector, as well as journalists and academics cannot muster such enthusiasm. The consensus among journalists and members of the public sector is that privatisation has had a negative impact on people's lives.
One issue that enjoyed across-the-board support was bolstering economic cooperation between Arab and Islamic countries in the region. Any economic cooperation involving Israel, however, had negligible support: 0.7 per cent. On Egypt's regional ties, those surveyed believe that Egypt's relations with both Turkey and Iran are "good, to a certain extent", while they classified the relationship with Israel as "bad, to a certain extent". Ninety per cent of those surveyed said they believe there is a need to boost economic cooperation with both Turkey and Iran, but on the issue of Israel, the response was more varied. The poll registered a split between the private sector and the media, with 35.9 per cent of surveyed businessmen in favour of economic ties with Israel and 64 per cent of journalists against them.
The poll showed that Egyptians' reading of political developments in the Middle East has affected their view of Israel. According to ACPSS director Said, the Intifada has had a major impact on Egyptians' position on relations with Israel. People simply don't believe that a major breakthrough in the peace process is possible.
While the poll results, to some observers, represent the yardstick by which change in Egyptian society can be gauged, others have qualms about accepting the figures as they are. Galal Amin, a professor of economics at the American University in Cairo (AUC), did not find the results particularly interesting or revelatory. "The fact that the economy has top priority to most Egyptians goes without saying, given the current economic crisis," Amin told Al-Ahram Weekly. He found it strange, however, that despite the harsh economic realities, people still voted in favour of the economic policies that are in force. "This shows that figures can be very deceiving in this context," he said.
What piqued Amin's interest in the poll were its methods, not its results. How, for example, were the questions formulated and the poll sample selected? He was left with more questions than answers, particularly with regard to the figures on WTO membership and the impact of the peace treaty with Israel. "How would an ordinary citizen figure out the impact of the peace treaty on the economy, when economists themselves don't know?" Amin demanded. He claimed that the poll was obviously coloured with the ideological biases of those who ran it. The reason society is so divided in its sentiments, Amin noted, is that society itself is not ideologically charged.
Despite criticism, both Abdel-Gawad and Said hope to conduct polls on a regular basis in the future. Issues of people's responses to government policies, the degree of satisfaction with political performance and foreign policy are possible themes of future polls.
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