What will become of the middle ground between the NDP and Muslim Brotherhood, asks Omayma Abdel-Latif One truism of democracy is that political tensions are resolved through the ballot box. It is a platitude confounded by Egypt's three-stage parliamentary elections which ended yesterday. If anything, the election compounded a political crisis that is steadily gaining momentum. While National Democratic Party (NDP) pundits and yes men predictably hailed the elections as a "milestone" fears were growing, particularly within liberal circles, over the fate of the political reform agenda. Those fears were fanned as the NDP showed it was determined to maintain its overwhelming majority in the People's Assembly come what may. Among the first casualties of the turmoil that has beset opposition parties in the wake of their poor electoral performance was Mounir Fakhry Abdel-Nour, the leading Wafd politician sacked by his leader's party on Monday. To the signs that some opposition parties may break up beneath the pressure of their virtual annihilation at the polls must be added the concerns provoked by the success of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and the ascendancy of Islamist politics. The picture becomes even more complicated when the fact that more than 75 per cent of registered voters stayed at home -- hardly a vote of confidence in the NDP's reform rhetoric -- is taken into account. Following the third round run-off the NDP looked set to secure the two-thirds majority it needs thanks to former members who ran as independents flocking back to re-join the party ranks. Only one quarter of the NDP's official list of 444 candidates made it to the assembly. The MB has emerged as the largest opposition bloc in the assembly, with 76 seats so far confirmed. But the chances of the 35 MB candidates standing in the third round run-offs look less than bright given the recent security clampdown on the group. According to MB sources 1360 of its activists have been arrested, limiting the movement's ability to mobilise supporters and get them to the polls. The election results have triggered a fierce debate about the future of the reform process, the rules of which will now be set by that oddest of political couples, the NDP and MB. The fear is that, with liberals, leftists and other Islamists such as Al-Wasat excluded from the process Egypt may revert to the stagnation that for decades prevailed in the political arena. There has been no shortage of commentators predicting that, with the inevitable clashes over policy between the NDP and MB, the assembly may quickly find itself ham- strung, in which case it might well be dissolved by the president. It is a scenario that gained credibility when on Monday Mohamed Habib, deputy supreme guide of the Brotherhood, told a press conference that curtailing presidential prerogatives was at the top of the MB's parliamentary agenda. There have been calls from across the political spectrum that the only way out of the current impasse is to establish a new political party capable of staking out the middle ground between the NDP and the MB. "Egypt," argues Abdel-Moneim Said, head of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, "needs a new political party the most important function of which will be to mobilise the silent majority that boycotted the election and is currently alienated from the entire political process." Official figures put voter turnout during the presidential election at 23 per cent, while only 15 to 20 per cent showed up at the polls for the first and second rounds of the parliamentary elections. "We have political capital out there and we have to understand the concerns and aspirations of voters and rally them around new political ideas," added Said, who is a member of the NDP's Policies Secretariat. He dismissed rumours that Gamal Mubarak, head of the Policies Secretariat, was about to form a new political party that would include the liberal forces marginalised by the election results: "These are far- fetched rumours. The general perception inside the party is that while the NDP's majority has been slightly reduced it has emerged as the winner from a quantitative point of view. No one in a senior position, such as Gamal Mubarak, is going to leave the party. He will continue with his reform plans." Such plans, Said acknowledged, would continue to meet with stiff resistance from what he dubs the "guardians of the Socialist Union legacy", the NDP's old guard who are unwilling to abandon the authoritarian tactics of the past. But he believes the NDP, like other political forces that failed to make electoral gains, has to face "its moment of truth". That moment, though, is likely to be delayed "because the balance remains in favour of conservative elements within the party". Leading Al-Ahram columnist Fahmy Howeidy does not believe a new political party will single-handedly be able to break the polarisation that is engulfing the country. "The effectiveness of any new party will depend on how representative it is of society and on its relationship with the state," he told Al-Ahram Weekly. Resolving polarisation, Howeidy points out, will depend on the performance of three key players -- the NDP, the Muslim Brothers and liberal forces, including groups like the Judges Club and civil society organisations that have proved crucial to the reform process. The onus, says Howeidy, is now on the MB to live up to the principles they have been advocating. "They should not act independently but rather as part of the larger opposition bloc. This is one way to absorb the tension created by the MB's success in the elections." And the NDP, Howeidy believes, will have to make its own position on democratic reform clear. "They should tell us how committed they are to the process of reform. I, for one, have doubts about their seriousness." Howeidy also believes that liberal forces have some explaining to do when it comes to their understanding of democracy. "That some liberals cried wolf when the Brothers began to win seats in parliament was a betrayal of the liberal tradition. Liberals, too, have some political choices ahead of them. Will they ally themselves with the regime against the Brothers or stand by their values and support political reform regardless of whether or not they disagree ideologically with the forces that promote it? "Liberals must realise that the real issue is about political reform and not about the Muslim Brothers' acquisition of seats in the parliament."
