Winning the elections may be the easiest of Saad Al-Hariri's tasks, reports Omayma Abdel-Latif from Beirut When, after casting his vote, Saad Al-Hariri was asked about the differences between Lebanon's current elections and the previous one his response was a simple one-line: "Now Rafiq Al- Hariri [the former Lebanese prime minister murdered last February in a car bomb attack] is not with us." His image was, though, with life-sized posters of the former prime minister everywhere. More than three months after his assassination the Lebanese elections were dominated by the figure of Rafiq Al-Hariri. Tayar Al-Mustaqbal, Al-Hariri's political bloc, secured a landslide in the Beirut round of the Lebanese poll. The emotional outpouring unleashed by Al-Hariri's murder and the soaring popularity of Al-Hariri Jr, particularly within Beirut's Sunni circles, combined with the absence of other serious candidates who either boycotted the elections or did not run, saw Tayar Al- Mustaqbal win all 19 Beirut constituencies. It is a scenario many observers expect to be repeated in the next round of the elections. "This victory is Rafiq Al-Hariri's victory. It is a victory for national unity. Lebanon is entering a new period,'' Al-Hariri Jr told an emotionally charged gathering of his supporters on Sunday. But what is this new period likely to bring? It is a question to which there are no obvious answers. While most commentators agree that Lebanon's first parliamentary elections since the withdrawal of Syrian troops will lessen the political tensions that have engulfed the country for months few are willing to predict the future direction of the political process. The Lebanese press speaks openly about new centres of power emerging in Beirut, alluding to the influence of the French and the American ambassadors. US and French attempts to influence Lebanese politics have been the focus of growing criticism, particularly from Hizbullah and Nasserist circles. One running joke has it that Lebanon, once governed from Anjaar, where the Syrian headquarters were located, is now being run from Aoukar, site of the US Embassy. That the poll is being conducted under the electoral law of 2000 left many politicians unhappy. Yet French and US insistence that the elections be held as scheduled meant there was no time to revise the law, and led to the odd spectacle of Washington and Paris insisting the Lebanese vote under rules drawn up by Ghazi Kanaan, the officer once in charge of Syrian intelligence in Lebanon. But Al-Hariri Jr insists the 2005 elections will be a watershed in the history of Lebanon. And he may well be right given that the elections mark the re-emergence onto the political stage of forces marginalised during 15 years of Syria's heavy-handed presence. "This is the first ever elections in which key players on the Christian political scene, including Al-Quwwat Al-Libnaniya and Michael Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), are participating and will be represented in the assembly," Charles Harb, professor of political science at the American University in Beirut, told Al-Ahram Weekly. According to Harb the elections also mark the emergence of Al-Hariri Jr as the unquestioned leader of a significant number of Lebanon's Sunni Muslims. His leadership, though, was sorely tested by the inclusion of two Christian figures on his Beirut list. By nominating Solanj Al-Jumayel, wife of the late Lebanese president Bashir Al-Jumayel, considered by many Lebanese Muslims as a man who attempted to sell-out to the Israelis, and Jubran Teuini, the die-hard right-wing chairman of An-Nahar newspaper and a staunch critic of Arab nationalism, to Beirut's Maronite and Orthodox seats, Al- Hariri risked alienating his core constituents. Many analysts argue the low turnout among sections of the electorate, expected to be Al-Hariri loyalists, should be interpreted as a silent protest against such candidates. Raghid Al-Solh, a leading Sunni figure, believes the low turnout reflects the depoliticisation of Lebanon's Sunnis. "There was no significant political debate inside the community. No one was asking whether it might have been possible to select credible Christian candidates who do not offend Muslim sensibilities." "The problem," he says, "is less about the alliances which Al-Hariri Jr struck with figures from the Christian camp but how those alliances went unchecked. There is no counterbalance from among his own electorate." That Rafiq Al-Hariri's legacy was the only platform on which Tayar Al-Mustaqbal ran left little room for debate. A day before the polls Al- Hariri Jr was quoted as saying that "anyone who votes against Al-Hariri's list is voting for the criminals who killed him." Such statements intimidated rival candidates into either boycotting the elections or withdrawing their candidacy. Al-Hariri's repeated calls for national unity also failed to convince some Christian circles which, in protest, decided to boycott the elections. In An-Nahar Nicola Naseef, a political commentator, wrote that the low turnout in Christian-dominated areas was a result of the absence of any real contest. She pointed out that nine out of Beirut's 19 seats went uncontested. "There was no sign of political battles being fought in the majority of Beirut's constituencies," wrote Naseef, who added that many Christians were unhappy with the way in which Christian candidates appeared to be hand-picked by Al-Hariri Jr. "Some felt it looked like Saad Al-Hariri was doing Christians a favour by choosing two candidates who actually represent the Christian street. The implication was that without Al-Hariri they would not have made it to the assembly." On Sunday in Ashrafiya, an area where 86 per cent of the residents is Christian, the streets were eerily quiet, though members of the FPM could be seen in front of polling stations urging people not to vote. The only posters to be seen argued for a boycott of the ballot in response to the ''deliberate marginalisation of the Christian vote". "We are objecting to the way the Christian candidates were picked," said Michael Jabour of the FPM. "We wanted to elect them, not for them to be appointed by Al-Hariri." Aoun, who is running a list of candidates in Mount Lebanon, also lent his voice to the boycott call. Lebanon's elections, which some have sought to promote as a solution to the country's problems, may in the end turn out to have been the easiest of the hurdles Lebanon faces. For Al- Hariri Jr the difficult part will not be winning the elections but showing that this victory is indeed a triumph for national unity, and that it will not exacerbate existing sectarian divides.
