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Life after Hariri
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 24 - 03 - 2005

Lebanon's Sunnis are still reeling from the shocking death of their leader Rafiq Al-Hariri. But what does this mean for Lebanese politics? Omayma Abdel-Latif seeks some answers
For Hizbullah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, this week has been characterised by a breach of long-standing traditions. Nasrallah relaxed self-imposed tight security measures in order to visit Lebanon's Mufti Mohamed Rashid Qabani, who is also the spiritual leader of the country's Sunnis.
The message Nasrallah sought to convey could not have been clearer. "There are those who want to plant the seeds of a fitna (schism) between the Sunnis and the Shia of Lebanon," he told reporters after the meeting. "But our relationship could not be better and there is constant communication and cooperation between us." Nasrallah's comforting words were well-timed, emerging amid growing speculations about a troubled relationship between the country's two Muslim sects.
Alarmed by the fact that Al-Hariri's Tayyar Al-Mustaqbal (Future movement) along with the majority of the country's Sunnis had allied themselves with the opposition, Nasrallah spared no effort to woo the country's Sunnis. According to a senior analyst close to Hizbullah circles, Nasrallah's speech, delivered during the pro-Syria demonstration, contained a message of good will which targeted the Sunni forces within opposition ranks. He also made no secret of his fears that "some were working to sabotage the relationship."
While Nasrallah's reconciliatory moves shed light on the Sunni-Shia axis and its impact on Lebanese politics at such a crucial juncture of Lebanon's history, it nonetheless brought into focus some of the difficult challenges facing Lebanon's Sunnis, who constitute between 20 to 25 per cent of the overall population.
Al-Hariri's death has opened a pandora's box of questions concerning the kind of political choices the Sunnis are willing to make and how long such choices should continue to be influenced by the loss of Al-Hariri. Also of concern is to what extent the political decisions of Al-Hariri movement -- which mainly represent the Sunni elite of Beirut -- reflects an overall consensus among the country's Sunnis.
Al-Hariri's death was a turning point for the majority of Sunnis in Lebanon who were left with no option but to close ranks with the opposition -- made up of predominantly Christian and Druze forces. While such a move has tremendously empowered the Lebanese opposition, it nonetheless raised questions about whether or not Al-Hariri's movement, and with it the majority of Lebanon's Sunnis, were willing to fully defend the opposition's agenda, an agenda with which Al- Hariri himself did not -- publicly at least -- identify with until shortly before his death.
Lebanon's Sunnis have traditionally been the staunch defenders and guardians of the country's Arab identity. They have embraced Nasserism as their core idea. Some within the Sunni community did little to hide their shock with fellow Sunnis who are now in the same camp as "the enemies of all that Lebanon's Sunnis have stood for".
"As Sunnis we cannot put ourselves in the same camp as the Qwat or the Phalangists (both Christian militias). We belong to a different world and different national project for Lebanon," Ali Sheikh Ammar, deputy head of Lebanon's Al-Jamaa Al-Islamiya movement told Al Ahram Weekly.
There are a number of forces at work amongst Lebanon's Sunnis. The most important of these are Al-Hariri's Tayyar Al- Mustaqbal; Al-Jamaa Al-Islamiya, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood; and Al- Murabetoun, which is a Nasserist leaning movement. While it is not clear to what extent Al-Hariri's movement represents overall Sunni interests, Al-Jamaa Al-Islamiya clearly enjoys a degree of influence.
Fractures within Sunni ranks over whether or not Lebanon's Sunnis should ally themselves with the opposition emerged last week. In some Sunni populated areas, pamphlets were distributed urging Sunnis to break ranks with the opposition. One pamphlet called on Bahiya Al-Hariri, Al-Hariri's sister and an MP for Saidon, to "toe the national line of her brother". Another pamphlet demanded that Sunnis should not allow themselves to be led by Jumblat (the Druze leader) or the Qornet Shehwan gathering (the Christian backbone of the Lebanese opposition) because "they take orders from France and America." The two pamphlets were signed by an unknown organisation called the Jdeida Youth Gathering.
Regardless of who is behind it, the statements reflect growing concerns within the Sunni community over where this is all going. This might explain why Hizbullah has decided to enter the debate and win the Sunnis over. Lebanon's standing in the Arab world and its relationship with Israel are among the core issues.
By moving closer to the Sunnis, Nasrallah is obviously seeking to secure a supporting relationship with them. He is also eager to achieve a breakthrough that would secure a Sunni comeback at any cost.
When Nasrallah was asked by reporters if he feared an Israeli attack, considering that he is the number one target on Israel's hit list, he responded by saying that he was intent on defending the unity between Shias and Sunnis "even if the price was martyrdom".


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