Lebanon will commemorate the fifth anniversary of Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination amid speculation over the fate of the March 14 coalition led by his son, writes Omayma Abdel-Latif from Beirut On Tuesday, 27 January, Sheikh Mohamed Al-Majzob of Majdal Anjar, a village on the Syrian-Lebanese border, was reported missing. Soon rumours had it that the Sunni sheikh, a staunch proponent of Tayyar Al-Mustaqbal (the Future Movement of Saad Al-Hariri, son of the assassinated former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri) who gained popularity through sermons full of sectarian venom, had been kidnapped. In a telephone call to security forces, Sheikh Al-Majzob's father insinuated that the alleged kidnapping had been motivated by sectarian reasons. Hizbullah, as well as its Sunni ally in Beqaa, former minister Abdel-Raheem Murad, were mentioned as potential culprits. In a few hours, the sheikh's supporters took to the streets of the small village and threatened "disastrous consequences" if the perpetrators were not arrested. Roadblocks were established and passengers were asked about their religious identity (ostensibly in a search for Shias), reviving an ugly scene from Lebanon's years of civil war. The rest of the story is history. Security forces exposed the sheikh's stunt. It turned out that Al-Majzob plotted the kidnapping story to escape financial obligations and had to give it a sectarian edge since this is about the only mobilising factor in his small village and it is a business that he has come to master during the past five years. Al-Majzob is now under arrest and investigations continue. What the Al-Majzob incident revealed is that despite an atmosphere of national reconciliation between yesterday's political archrivals, one small incident can push Lebanon back to the brink of civil war in a matter of hours. The incident proved Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad right when he told Seymour Hersh of the New Yorker last week, "Civil war could start in Lebanon in days unless they change the whole system." And in a televised speech last Wednesday, Hizbullah Secretary- General Hassan Nasrallah spoke at length of the Al-Majzob episode and warned how such incidents could "take Lebanon to the abyss". As Lebanon braces itself for the fifth commemoration of the death of Rafik Al-Hariri next Sunday, the coalition of March 14 -- which emerged from his assassination -- has lost two of its most important enemies, Syria and the Lebanese opposition, the latter now embraced in the national reconciliation process. Another important development on the scene is that of March 14's mastermind -- Walid Jumblatt -- stepping back from his ritual of attacking Syria and personally insulting its president. Jumblatt has had a change of heart since August 2009 and made repeated statements seeking amnesty from Damascus. Jumblatt is yet to decide if he will appear at Sunday's commemoration. While most media outlets are preoccupied with the all too important question of what is left of the "Cedar Revolution" five years on, perhaps the answer lies in incidents like that of the Al-Majzob affair. The most important legacy of that revolution is how deeply rooted the sectarian divide has become among the Lebanese, including between Lebanon's two Muslim sects. Saad Al-Hariri-owned media as well as other independent Lebanese TV stations air commercials that encourage viewers to show up Sunday "for the sake of Rafik Al-Hariri". Numbers on the street still count, despite all other changes. Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces and a former warlord, stressed the significance of a "massive turnout" Sunday. Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri is due to make a TV appearance Friday to urge supporters to show up. Already civil organisations, religious institutions and MPs of the Sunni sect are acting to secure a huge turnout. Although March 14 ran out of steam regarding the slogans that will be raised during this anniversary, they went back to invoking Al-Hariri's assassination as the mobilising factor. Geagea said in a recent meeting that, "March 14 will carry on until it achieves the last goal of the Martyrs of the Cedar Revolution." What he meant by "last goal" was left unexplained. Prime Minister Al-Hariri assured supporters who met in the Hotel Bristol last Sunday to discuss preparations for the Sunday rally that: "I am proud of my allies who attended the Bristol meeting which had a very special meaning." But the March 14 alliance will have to exert an extra effort to rally its supporters, the majority of whom have been disappointed by political developments in the last year. Many rightly ask the question: What political message this time? In previous years, following Al-Hariri's assassination, supporters' demands moved between the withdrawal of Syrian troops, the establishment of an international tribunal to investigate Al-Hariri's killing, to the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559, particularly the part relating to disarming Hizbullah. Five years later, most of those demands have already been met, save the last one. But a national dialogue process is meant to address the issue of a national defence strategy. Also a national unity government that includes the Lebanese opposition with a blocking third is making it more difficult for the hawks in the March 14 alliance to resort to the fiery speeches of previous years, for fear of embarrassing their prime minister and his partners in power, or of undermining his effort to establish a healthy relationship with Syria. Perhaps the only political message now for Lebanon's Sunnis, who constitute the bulk of the movement, is to show support for Saad Al-Hariri, this time in his governmental capacity.
