A year after Al-Hariri's death and Lebanon is increasingly haunted by the ghosts of its past, writes Omayma Abdel-Latif from Beirut "Only the truth will save Lebanon," reads the black banner hanging at the entrance to Al-Hamra Street in Beirut's old downtown. It is one of many, strung up alongside life-size pictures of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri. Together they speak volumes of the political impasse Lebanon is passing through as it commemorates the first anniversary of the assassination of Al-Hariri, a man who dominated Lebanon's post-war political scene. While Al-Hariri's entry into the political fray in 1989, as the architect of the Taif agreement, was a catalyst for major change, his death, in the view of many analysts, has brought the country back to square one, leaving the fate of the political process, and with it that of Lebanon, hanging by a thread that for the sake of convenience is being called "the truth". Al-Hariri's assassination on 14 February 2005 reordered the political landscape in a manner unprecedented in post-war Lebanon. Yesterday's arch enemies emerged as today's allies while forces that championed the struggle against Syrian presence in Lebanon -- including Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement -- are now labelled allies of Damascus. Meanwhile, national consensus over Hizbullah as an icon of resistance and a force of liberation has eroded, most noticeably among the forces now ruling Lebanon. In the immediate aftermath of the assassination of Al-Hariri the sectarian lines along which Lebanese politics has traditionally been organised appeared to be blurring. Twelve months on and political and sectarian polarisation is back with a vengeance, and nowhere was it more clear than during Tuesday's commemoration of the death of Lebanon's former prime minister. As a senior member of Hizbullah noted, the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and the Lebanese militia leader Samir Geagea, both adopted language chillingly redolent of the civil war period. Lebanon, he concluded, is passing through its most difficult times since the end of the war. Others agree. "Whether or not Lebanon is on the verge of a civil war has become our daily question and obsession," wrote leading commentator Saleh Nureddin in the daily As-Safir. Nureddin believes the Syrian military withdrawal is the only positive development to have resulted from the political turmoil that has gripped Lebanon since Al-Hariri's assassination. But that withdrawal, he points out, exposed the vacuum at the heart of Lebanese politics. Barely a month after Al-Hariri's death the national consensus forged in the wake of the assassination gave way to political jockeying. Two camps emerged -- the 14 March camp, comprising anti-Syrian forces from Tayyar Al-Mustaqbal, led by Saad Al-Hariri, which struck up a partnership with Jumblatt and the Lebanese militia (Al-Qwat Al-Lebnaniya ). With 72 seats it is the largest bloc in the Lebanese parliament. It is opposed by the 8 March camp, comprised mainly of pro-Syrian Hizbullah and Amal. It is these two groupings that have dictated political debate in Lebanon for almost a year now, a debate that perhaps climaxed with the extraordinary sight of Michel Aoun, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), and Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hizbullah, signing an agreement of understanding on 11 February. The result of the conflict between the two camps will determine the direction Lebanon will take in its post-Syrian phase, and at the heart of the debate lie two questions: what role will be allotted to the armed resistance group Hizbullah play, and what will the relationship with Damascus be. All other issues flow like tributaries into these two key questions. Al-Hariri's absence from the scene, argue many, has hit Lebanon's Sunnis hardest. While they emerged over the last 12 months as key players behind which others followed, the unresolved leadership crisis that followed Al-Hariri's death is now coming home to roost. "Seeking the truth about who was behind Al-Hariri's assassination does not constitute a political project behind which Sunnis can rally, nor does it create a leadership," a source close to Tayyar Al-Mustaqbal told Al-Ahram Weekly. "The Sunnis are embracing the political project Lebanon's Christians have long been preaching," noted one political commentator. "They are now the champions of Lebanese nationalism par excellence, but this comes at the expense of their Arab affiliation." In private, Christian commentators make no secret of their disappointment with the way in which Lebanon's Christians have become junior partners in power. And the politicians seem to agree. "Lebanon's Christians have been either key partners or the catalysts of change but now Christian forces are being used as a façade for a fabricated consensus over the political project," Jubran Basil of the FPM told the Weekly. He accused the Hariri-Jumblatt alliance of waging a war against what he describes as the force most representative of the Christian street. "When General Aoun returned to Lebanon they worked hard to isolate him and marginalise the FPM." Discontent over the way in which the political process has been run by the 14 March camp extends to large segments of the Sunni street, particularly outside Beirut, in Tripoli, Akar and Al-Deniya. The Lebanese press is awash with reports about the activities of Salafi and Jihadist groups. "Saad Al-Hariri has lost control over the Sunni street," shouted the banner of Al-Dyar newspaper a day after the demonstration against Danish cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohamed ended with the smashing of windows of churches in Beirut's Christian-dominated district of Ashrafiya. "We don't know much about who they are, or how many of them there are... what we do know is that these groups have been alienated by Al-Hariri's lack of leadership skills and inability to co-opt radical elements within the community," wrote Joseph Smaha, editor of As-Safir. Al-Hariri, argue many, has dissipated the political capital he accumulated following the death of his father and the alliance with Jumblatt and Geagea is only harming his cause. What direction the political process in Lebanon now takes will depend to a large extent on how the sensitive issue of Hizbullah is dealt with. Many Lebanese believe the resistance group should remain armed in order to guarantee security against Israeli violations and were alarmed by Jumblatt-Geagea insinuations against Hizbullah. And the results of the international investigation into Al-Hariri's killing will also prove a crucial factor in redrawing strained relations with Syria, particularly when Arab mediation efforts are being killed in the bud by those who fear that any Arab initiative opens a backdoor for Syria's return to Lebanon.
