Whatever his sugar-coated rhetoric might suggest, radical Iraqi cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr is not set on moderation, writes Salah Hemeid While Lebanon is awaiting news of a Syrian-Saudi initiative to end the impasse over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, Hizbullah and its allies threatened yesterday to quit the Lebanese government a move that would sharply destabilize the fragile state. The groups's MPs have said they would abandon the coalition after months of fruitless wrangling over how to deal with crimial indictments likely to accuse Hizbullah members of being behind the assassination of Rafik Al Hariri in February 2005. The threat comes as Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri raised expectations in a newspaper interview last week that the Syrian-Saudi initiative could broker a face saving deal for both Hizbullah and his own political bloc, which forms the majority of the coalition. Yet a rush of US and French diplomacy stirred speculation that those two countries, staunch backers of the tribunal to try suspects in former Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri's 2005 assassination, are keen to ensure no compromises are made at its expense. Few details of the Syrian-Saudi diplomatic effort have emerged, and some on both sides of Lebanon's political divide have voiced doubts that they offer anything new. Al-Hariri told Saudi-funded newspaper Al-Hayat last week that a Syrian-Saudi deal had been worked out months ago, but that "other sides" -- for which read Hizbullah -- had held it up by not implementing their part. Since a summit in Beirut in July, the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Syria, which back Al-Hariri and Hizbullah respectively, have been working to defuse tensions over the expected indictment in connection to the Rafik Al-Hariri killing of suspects connected to Hizbullah. For years after the assassination, Saad Al-Hariri and his local and international allies accused Syria of the killing, a charge he has now retracted. Al-Hariri's high-profile meetings with Saudi King Abdullah and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in New York this week have injected his "14 March" group with hope but led to some consternation among his political opponents in Lebanon. Over the past few months, US pressure on Al-Hariri to make no deals that might give Hizbullah breathing room appears to have intensified. Shortly before meeting French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Tuesday, US President Barack Obama said Lebanon was high on the agenda, adding, "I think we are all deeply concerned with the special tribunal there and making sure that justice is appropriately served." Secretary of State Clinton also weighed in this week, expressing fears there were moves afoot to "destabilise Lebanon". Many analysts believe the United States opposes any compromise that will delay the indictment or allow Lebanon to distance itself from the court or its findings. Rosana Bou Monsef, political commentator for the pro-14 March An-Nahar newspaper, said the Syrian-Saudi initiative, whose content remains unknown, could more accurately be described as a set of ideas. "What's happening in New York shows the international community is worried about what's happening in Lebanon, but at the same time are sending the message they cannot drop the tribunal," she said. "It's clear Al-Hariri will say that if anyone from Hizbullah is indicted it's not an accusation of the party, community or the resistance. That's at the core of the issue. It appears Al-Hariri's position hasn't changed, but we have to wait for him to come back [from New York]." But Hizbullah and its allies are making clear they will not compromise over the tribunal. And the Shia group has said it will view any indictment connected with it as an accusation of the whole group, likely sensing that it's Israeli and US foes -- indeed many in the West -- would do so also, despite protest to the contrary. So it remains unclear whether Al-Hariri's Saudi and US backers are encouraging him to offer anything that will be enough for Hizbullah. Syria and its Lebanese ally have long made clear what they want from the billionaire prime minister: a firm denouncement of the tribunal's findings should it charge anyone connected with Hizbullah, combined with an official Lebanese retreat from the court. Lebanon has pledged to finance 49 per cent of the court's costs and two of its judges are Lebanese, so at the very least Al-Hariri would be expected to drop such support. But it is not clear what Hizbullah is willing to offer in return, unless perhaps guarantees that Al-Hariri can stay on in power and govern with some semblance of effectiveness. That could pan out as an agreement rather like Rafik Al-Hariri made with the group during the 1990s: the latter would not oppose the former's freewheeling capitalist reforms in return for his tacit acceptance of its weapons. However, Saad Al-Hariri's open acknowledgement last week of negotiations between the two sides sponsored by Saudi Arabia and Syria has stirred some hope of movement towards a deal. An editorial in the English-language Daily Star welcomed the news after months in which the political class dismissed hopes of a deal, many casting doubts on whether the Syrian-Saudi effort existed. "Discussions of Lebanon have been evoking metaphors of paralysis for months, but it seems the patient might finally be twitching a muscle or two," the paper said.
