Between optimism and caution, the Lebanese hope a government will soon be formed. Meanwhile, the ice between Riyadh and Damascus is melting. Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut This week's expected meeting between Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and Saudi King Abdullah raised hopes that a Lebanese government would soon be formed. With the former backing the opposition led by Hizbullah and the latter 's parliamentary majority, the two powerbrokers are seen as central to breaking -- some would also say causing -- the nearly four-month impasse. Another positive and apparently related development was a meeting between Prime Minister- designate Al-Hariri, who heads the Sunni Future Bloc, and popular Christian leader Michel Aoun, whom the majority accuses of hindering a deal on a national unity government with his tough demands vis-à-vis the number of ministries given to his Free Patriotic Movement. After that meeting, Aoun said an agreement on a government would be announced soon. But although optimism hit a high, analysts were also cautious. "There are some positive indications, but it's impossible to bet on a time when a government will be formed," said George Alam, a columnist for the leftist As-Safir newspaper. Regional events usually decide events in Lebanon more than the local actors, so the mood can change overnight. The Lebanese were generally gloomy a few weeks ago when Al-Hariri stepped down in protest against what he viewed as the opposition's unreasonable demands. News of the proposed visit followed a visit by Al-Assad to Jeddah last week. Syria and Saudi Arabia have long vied for regional influence, but their relationship went into deep freeze after Saudi Arabia, like its US allies, blamed Damascus for the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri. Syria, which was pressured to end its military involvement after that killing, denies the charge. The four-month vacuum in the Grand Serail has confirmed to many that Damascus remains the strongest hand in Lebanon, although Riyadh's role too is important. US overtures to Syria seem to be behind the rapprochement between Damascus and Riyadh. "King Abdullah would not go to Damascus without Washington's green light," Alam said, pointing out that former Syrian ambassador Faisal Mokdad visited Washington the week before. Iran, Hizbullah's key ally, also appeared to witness a breakthrough with Washington last week, with chief negotiator William Burns meeting his counterpart on the sidelines of talks in Geneva -- the highest level bilateral contact between the two foes since the Iranian revolution of 1979. In Alam's estimation, there are two main obstacles to forming a government. The primary one is security, with Hizbullah demanding behind-the-scenes guarantees that the president, prime minister and security services will protect its arms and resistance role in the south, he said. "The Americans insist on having a main role in building the army and helping the Internal Security Forces. This makes Hizbullah fear that they are preparing to make some future moves against its weapons." Enter the drawn-out row over the Telecommunications Ministry, which has both a security and a financial aspect, he said. One of Aoun's demands, which the majority rejects, is that his son-in-law Gebran Bassil retains control of the ministry. A crackdown on Hizbullah's private telecommunications network sparked retaliation in May 2008 by the armed Shia group, which briefly took over western Beirut with its allies. "So it is important for the opposition to keep telecommunications," Alam said. "It also has to do with the international court investigation [into Al-Hariri's killing]. It's not that they want to block it, but to stop it being politicised, which it already has been." The ministry is also highly lucrative for the treasury, and therefore high-profile. Aside from security, Al-Hariri's fraught relations with Syria are the other problem, Alam said. "Al-Hariri can't be in the Grand Serail without opening a new page with Syria," he said. "If there was a deal between the Al-Hariri family and Damascus, and security guarantees for Hizbullah on the other, forming a government would suddenly become very easy. Bassil and the issue of the portfolios would be forgotten immediately." All sides currently agree on a 15- 10-5 formula that grants the majority 15 seats, the opposition 10 and Suleiman five ministers; the majority and the opposition would respectively be denied an absolute majority and veto power. Suleiman holds the decisive votes, but it is widely expected that one of his ministers would in fact be an opposition figure. Although regional concerns come first, there are other local elements. Aoun, who won 27 seats in the June elections, is by far the most popular single Christian leader; as such he is demanding five ministries. But the anti-Syrian majority is keen to prove that it also represents the Christians in Lebanon's sectarian political system. Its Maronite figures, though many, are splintered. The most prominent, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, mustered five seats in the election and is a fierce opponent of Aoun. "The loudest voice of all is that of Samir Geagea, who is now making use of all his time to restructure the Lebanese Forces and to restore their role as a semi- formal army although no weapons are apparent until now. But the doctor [Geagea] himself will not be able to halt his ally's crawl into Damascus if Saudi Arabia says so," Fidaa Al-Itani wrote in the pro-opposition Al-Akhbar newspaper this week. "In so far there is an internal struggle, it's a Maronite-Maronite struggle," Alam said. "Those other leaders are seeing Aoun's demands and saying 'We want what he's getting.'"
