The Syrian-Saudi summit gave Lebanon's leaders a green light to form a government, but domestic rivalries may mean delays, Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut Lebanon's fractious political leaders moved several steps closer to forming a national unity government in the week after Syria and Saudi Arabia buried the hatchet, at least for now. With Damascus backing the opposition and Riyadh the majority, their rapprochement had been widely anticipated to affect the four-month-old government crisis. This week, Prime Minister-designate Saad Al-Hariri again opened consultations with various MPs and political blocs with a view to resolving the internal power struggle, particularly among Christian leaders, that now remains the main obstacle to a government. After King Abdullah's visit to Damascus, both sides issued statements calling for a national unity government in Lebanon. Al-Hariri's bloc slightly increased its majority in the June elections, winning 71 seats to the opposition's 57. But the two sides have been wrangling over positions in the 30-seat cabinet ever since. "Nothing could be done before the Syrian-Saudi agreement," said Karim Makdisi, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut. "It's embarrassing as a Lebanese that this has to be the case and that it's so obvious. It shows that there's a major flaw in the political system in this country." Many political leaders reacted warily to the summit, particularly those from the March 14 anti-Syrian movement represented by the majority. Although Saudi Arabia backs Al-Hariri's Future Movement, the main party in the bloc, its leaders tend to play down any regional influence on their actions, partly because that is viewed with suspicion by Lebanon's Christians, split between the government and opposition. "March 14 in particular has to show their independence, and they've made a point of saying there won't be a government for at least a couple of weeks to show that it isn't literally that the Syrians and Saudis meet one day and the next there's a government," Makdisi said. "Even for Lebanese politicians, that would have been a bit too much to swallow." Al-Hariri met opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun on Monday, in a further sign of détente. Although many expected a decisive step to come from that meeting, Al-Hariri left without making a statement and Aoun made only vague comments about the positive atmosphere in existence, which many took as a signal the crisis would not end within days. Sami Baroudi, political science professor at the American University of Beirut, said analysts and Lebanese citizens alike would believe in a government when they see it. "We've often come to a deal and then something happens at the last minute, so people are quite sceptical," he said. "It's like the stock market: confidence goes up, it goes down, but I think these days most people are bullish." Aoun, too, is sensitive to accusations of foreign backing. The March 14 movement accuses him of being supported by Syria, like his main ally, Shia Hizbullah. Such accusations are anathema to his supporters, many who supported his enmity with Syria during its dominance of Lebanon, which ended in 2005 after former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination increased pressure for it to withdraw its troops. The majority accuses Aoun of blocking a government deal with his demands for five ministries, including the key Telecommunications Ministry. Aoun, who won 27 seats in the June elections, is by far the most popular single Christian leader. But the anti-Syrian majority is keen to prove that it also represents Christians in Lebanon's sectarian political system. Its Maronite figures are many but splintered; the most prominent, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, took five seats in the elections. Intra-Christian squabbles constitute a domestic obstacle to a new government, Makdisi said. The politically dominant Maronite sect, to which the president traditionally belongs, sees its representation as an existential issue. The current caretaker government was formed at the Doha summit last year after clashes in May 2008, when Hizbullah and allied fighters briefly seized western Beirut after the March 14- led government attempted to crack down on its intelligence and communications networks. "There is a genuine disagreement in this country. The Syrian and Saudi blessing was needed in order for serious negotiations to take place, but the nitty-gritty still has to be thrashed out," Makdisi said. "According to the Christian logic, this is Lebanon's first freely formed [post-war] government, and there'll be lots of discussions about the role of the Christians in this country, in parliament and elsewhere, so this will obviously put Christian representatives in a position that will set the stage for the coming decade or so," he added. All sides currently agree on a 15-10-5 formula that grants the majority 15 seats, the opposition 10 and President Michel Suleiman five ministers; the majority and the opposition would respectively be denied an absolute majority and veto power. Suleiman would hold the decisive votes, but it is also widely expected that one of his ministers would be an opposition figure. Further adding to March 14 problems was the de facto defection of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt in August. Once the Western-backed movement's most hawkish critic of Syria, Jumblatt announced he was leaving the movement, although he technically remains part of the majority bloc and is trying to tread a middle ground, retaining Al-Hariri's ear but depriving him of a key ally to depend on. "Within the March 14, clearly Jumblatt is putting pressure on the prime minister- designate to reach an agreement with the opposition. So I think we'll soon have a government and, surprise, surprise, it won't be that different from the one Al-Hariri proposed," Baroud said. "People will look at it and say 'What took you so long'?" Jumblatt met Hizbullah Secretary- General Hassan Nasrallah during the weekend in a further sign of the former's political realignment. Both agreed on the need to form a national unity government. The former warlord Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party and Hizbullah fought each other in last May's deadly clashes, which spread to the Druze Chouf Mountains in Lebanon's southeast.
