As Lebanon's crippling political crisis continues, all sides fear a return to violence but none seems prepared to compromise, Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut Forecasts of a breakthrough in Lebanon's political deadlock looked optimistic at best this week. A meeting between the 14 March leader Saad Al-Hariri and Shia speaker of parliament Nabih Berri, a key figure in the opposition, is anticipated. At the time of going to press, it is by no means clear that it will go ahead. A Western diplomat told Al-Ahram Weekly that polarised Lebanese politicians should take the initiative instead of depending on diplomacy. "Yes, there is outside intervention, and Syria's position is a major obstacle, possibly a decisive obstacle. But the two sides could also be making progress by meeting each other," he said. "The bottom line is that they don't trust each other." Berri seems unwilling to waste time in a meeting where a good chance of success is not assured. In an interview with Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, he said the governing coalition must cede the "blocking third" of cabinet seats demanded by the opposition, which is led by Hizbullah, and in return he would prevail on it to drop its call for early elections. Berri warned: "there are many escalatory steps and I use the brakes quite a lot, as I did before and will do later. I do not know, however, for how long I can succeed given the mutual intransigence." Opposition protesters have been camped out in downtown Beirut since the start of December, demanding a greater say in government following Israel's war on Lebanon last summer. Reuters reported this week that the opposition was considering upping the ante with a civil disobedience campaign. Loyalists in the public service would cease to go to work, pay bills and taxes. But Alain Aoun, nephew and aide to key Christian opposition figure Michel Aoun, told the Weekly that civil disobedience remained a last resort. "It was discussed from the beginning, but it's really an extreme measure and I hope we don't come to that." He said the opposition was, nonetheless, "reassessing" whether to escalate its pressure after anti- Syrian leaders Samir Geagea and Walid Jumblatt made inflammatory speeches at the 14 February rally commemorating Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination two years ago. In the face of escalation, and with no consensus: "the government will have to face that it may be difficult to implement Paris III." Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora presented a loose economic plan to a Paris conference in January in return for more than $7 billion international assistance. "Any meetings are linked to progress and there is no new development that could trigger such a meeting, at least from our side," Alain Aoun said. Hizbullah Secretary-General Sayed Hassan Nasrallah also called for bilateral meetings last week at a rally to commemorate Israel's assassination of his predecessor, Sayed Abbas Al-Moussawi. But the main focus of his speech was resistance. He criticised the Lebanese authorities for seizing a consignment of weapons for his forces. "We are ready to provide the army with all the weapons it needs, but we will not forgive anyone who confiscates a bullet; we will not allow our arms to be confiscated," Nasrallah said. The resistance had plentiful weapons of all kinds, he said, and reserved the right to transport them in secret to hide them from Israel. The international tribunal to try suspects in Hariri's assassination remains the key point for all government loyalists and a rallying cry for Sunnis of most political stripes. But it is, in the words of a December International Crisis Group report, "the issue Hizbullah wishes would go away." Syrian-backed Hizbullah agreed in principle to the court from the start, but has stalled over procedural qualms. Among Syria's fears is that the court would aim to try the regime as a whole. Damascus maintains its innocence. Hizbullah needs Syria's logistical support as a conduit for its Iranian-supplied weapons. Pressure has increased on the guerrillas to disarm -- following last summer's war with Israel -- and they cannot afford to bite the hand that feeds them. But being seen to shield Syria is increasingly embarrassing, even among Hizbullah's die-hard supporters. Osama Safa, director of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies, said the group's regional and domestic agenda currently contradicts itself. "While Hizbullah definitely doesn't want to see the tribunal happen and its friends embarrassed, it could really care less to lose all of its lustre just because of the tribunal," Safa said. "I think Hizbullah wants a graceful exit from this one but is unable to find one." In his interview, Berri accused Fouad Al-Siniora of causing the latest crisis by insisting on a vote two days after Lebanon received a draft plan for the court from the United Nations. The opposition wanted an extension of three days to translate and study the draft, which was in English. There is still no word this week on a date for Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa's long-anticipated visit to Beirut. Moussa returned from an earlier initiative empty-handed in December. Talks between Saudi Arabia, which backs the Sunni-led governing coalition, and Iran, which backs Hizbullah, remain the diplomatic mission of the moment. One of the problems, in the words of the Western diplomat, is that "nothing's agreed until everything's agreed". For the government to give the opposition a veto- wielding "one third plus one" of the cabinet, the opposition needs to yield on amendments to the tribunal. And vice versa. Former prime minister Salim Al-Hoss went to Damascus and Riyadh this week with a proposal for both sides to hammer out an agreement on the jurisdiction and powers of the court, followed immediately by the formation of a unity government that would then ratify it. Hoss worked on improving relations between Syria and Saudi Arabia, said Issam Naaman, a former minister allied to Hoss. Relations have been sour since Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad referred to "half-men" in a post-war speech, which was seen as a reference to pro-US Arab leaders who criticised Hizbullah's conduct. Naaman said Assad would attend the March Arab Summit in Saudi Arabia. Saudi and Iranian relations are improving, Hoss reported back, having a knock-on effect on Assad, who visited Tehran this week. Naaman said Assad told Hoss he was not against the court if the Lebanese could agree on it. Safa said the Syrian position had not changed. "Its attitude is, 'you can have as many courts as you like as long as you don't threaten anyone here'. But I don't think that's the international community's intention." Pollster and analyst Abdu Saad said Saudi Arabia would not go this far towards a deal without a green light from Washington. "The Americans wouldn't mind now testing the other side but they want to use any deal as a barter in Iraq," he said. He pointed to an exchange of visits by Iranian Security Chief Ali Larijani and his Saudi counterpart Prince Bandar Bin Sultan as a sign that things are moving. The Lebanese are depending on these last-ditch efforts after two days of sectarian clashes in January raised the spectre of renewed civil war. Safa expects no significant resolution until the Arab summit. "I'm not sure the US and international community will accept a power that will reinvent the role of the Syrians and Iranians in Lebanon, or that the majority in the government will accept the many initiatives, none of which are really serious enough to reach a deal," he said.
